Magic has become the Dwight Howard + a bunch of play making three point shooter team. Nelson Arenas Richardson Hedo Dwight That is a dangerous lineup for closing games.
If Dwight Howard wasn't carrying the load defensively before this trade, he'll definitely be doing it now.
....I'm not so sure they got much better necessarily. On one hand the thing that made them a dangerous team a few years ago was that they had a BIG lineup they could go to(Hedo, Lewis, Howard) while still spreading the floor with shooters. They were dangerous because they were a matchup problem at the 3/4 with Hedo and Lewis able to hit from deep but if you went too small to play them at the perimeter, they could back you down. They clearly missed Hedo since he has been gone but now that they got rid of Lewis to get him back, I'm not sure I see them with the same advantage as the thing that was special with having both of them. I figure Arenas will be able to give them Carter like numbers for a few more years and he gives them some insurance as he can play the PG spot when Jameer is out(which happens a lot unfortunately). Richardson seems like basically an offense for defense type move since they lost Pietrius who was their defensive stopper. ....I guess I can see how this is a more consistent/creative offensive team, but where is the toughness and defense going to come from? Who guards Lebron and Wade...or Bosh for that matter? Who guards Ray Allen or Paul Peirce or Garnett? My guess is Howard will be picking up lots of that slack on defense but at the expense of being in foul trouble more often....and then your screwed if Howard is on the bench from foul trouble or injury(which is a possibility considering how injury free he has been). Oh ya, they also lost A LOT of size in this trade. Gortat and Lewis are both decent bigs and we know here in Houston that 6'10" or larger big men who can play are hard to come by. ...so I guess the question is, this team's success largely depends on who you think their main competition will be for a championship over the next few years. Many are expecting Boston and LA to fall off and if you think that might happen soon, who will be the next conteders? Miami? OKC? New York(ha!)? If you think those are the teams you'll be competing against in 2014, than I can see how you would be fooled into thinking you need to score a lot to beat those teams but I'm inclined to believe defense and size wins championships(the list of past champions would certainly indicate that). If you ask me, Orlando panicked and now they are the Mavericks East...congrats on being a perennial playoff loser - just like they were before.
I like your analysis to the most part , except the last paragraph about them being the Mavericks of the East . Magic made the NBA Finals in 09 , made to the ECF Finals in '10 . I would hardly call them a perennial loser.
Oh ya, and I can already see the knee jerk over reaction that everyone does whenever a big move is made...but I just don't think Miami or Orlando is a serious contender as constructed right now.
...I guess what I meant to say is a non-champion. I mean, no one care if you lose in the playoffs every year - they just care if you win a ring. I just don't think Orlando(or Dallas) can get by a Boston or LA and win it all and when those teams finally fall off, are they going to be more potent scoring wise than Miami or OKC? Not likely(assuming Lebron and Wade figure out how to coexist). At least when they had the Hedo, Lewis, Lee, Barnes, etc - they had versatility to sub in toughness or defense or court stretchers, or playmakers. Now they just don't have that same versatility that made them dangerous in the first place.
...Heat are contenders only because the East is weak but in general, I can't see them having a legit shot at getting a ring right now(like everyone was thinking when they first got together this summer). I mean, a couple of months ago the story was, "Can they win 72?". The odds in Vegas for them to win a championship was like 1:2. It's an insane overreaction. A few weeks back they were a .500 team until they hit the easy part of their schedule(their win streak against teams who mostly have only won 1/3 of their games isn't impressive). The Magic? No, I still don't see them getting past both Boston and LA. ...my point was that the knee jerk reaction is to overrate stacked teams that make recent moves but history doesn't seem to indicate that the most stacked team of stars or teams that make big roster moves mid season actually win titles.
I'm really surprised at how many ppl have posted that they think they've gotten worse. What have they lost in Carter and Lewis? Both have been incredibly inconsistent and have been playing badly. To get JRich, Hedo, and Arenas for them is incredible.
sorry, add post, forgot Gortat. Gortat's a nice player but not 5M nice when he's playing 15~ mins a game off the bench.
You have to take team dynamics into consideration. He's coming into a familar environment with familiar teammates, coach and a familiar system. Comfort level can bring out the best in players. And he was playing full time PF in Phoenix in the tough Western Conference, no surprise he got pushed around like crazy.
I don't know about ORL, but I think Phoenix got better now and in the future. Lopez/Gortat Warrick Pietrus/Hill Carter Nash I think that team can score and defend, though they're almost all on the decline. They will be stubbornly clinging on to that 8th seed unfortunately. They recently looked like they would dissapear. Now they have a bunch of players who want to make a point.
Now the magic need to ship out Nelson, for a backup pf/c and a backup pg, agent zero is better than nelson, jameer is too good to be riding the pine, and they need someone who can take 10-12 mins away from Dwight, Gortat was too good a player to be the "rest b****".
What about him? That didn't lose to LA because of Nelson. They lost to LA because LA had a better frontcourt, two long wings that could defend theirs and a superstar guard that they couldn't defend. Nelson doesn't change any of that. They had Nelson when the Celtics kicked their butts last season for the same reasons. This trade doesn't address any of the reasons that they can't win a title. LA and Boston still have better frontlines. They just got smaller. They arguably got worse defensively on the perimiter as well. Their new players are no better than Artest, Odom, Pierce, Allen, Rondo, etc. Who defends on this team?
^This, The reason they lost the series to Boston is ultimately Perkins able to defend Howard without doubling thus eliminating any 3 point threat that makes Magic so good. And with an aging Vince Carter who is forced to create and Shard who was completely raped by Garnett, they were doomed And getting rid of their back up C in return for more wings that can shoot but can't create does not address the issue
The "easy part of their schedule" has been harder than the entire Lakers' schedule up until now. And yet the Heat are only one game behind the Lakers, who pretty much everyone has penned in as the champions already.
With or without Nelson the Magic were gonna lose to the Lakers. Kobe was ridiculous that year and the team overall was playing better. However PG defense and PG production on both ends was their biggest weakness, you really don't think having Nelson would've made a difference in the NBA finals? ORL would've probably pushed it to at least one more game with Nelson instead of Alston. Just look at how much quick point guards give the Lakers trouble...Fisher was having a nightmare with our PGs and they won a game WITHOUT fisher and quicker PG in Farmar starting the game. Again the key to ORL problems was Carter, they didn't have a reliable wing player who give the much needed production. I have no doublt they would've beaten BOS with Turkgolu last year instead of the choke job Carter pulled.
