aside from his impending free agency, he's not a young player. It's not a future-looking move...it's a win-now move. The Cubs sorely lacked high OBP guys, and it looks like that's the hole they're filling here. Which means Fowler should be hitting in the 1 or 2 holeand bringing high OBP, 15 SBs, 7-10 HRs. If Castro comes back to form some, Soler and Bryant show well, and Rizzo continues to rake--that's a formidable 1-5. Oh right, and providing mediocre to below-avg D in CF or above-average in LF. I'm guessing it's a toss-up between Fowler and Coghlan as to who's better in CF. Guessing it'll be Fowler based on experience.
New Roster lineup with the recent changes? Altuve-2B Lowrie-SS Spring-RF Carter-DH Gattis-LF Castro-C/Singleton 1B Marisnick--CF Valbuena--3B Singleton--1B/Castro?
Springer, Carter, and Gattis will likely not be together. I expect Singleton bats cleanup to give Astros R/L/R/L/R heart of the order. Marisnick is likely the last in the lineup.
I would have: Altuve 2B Lowrie SS Springer CF Carter DH Gattis LF Castro C Singleton 1B Valbuena 3B Marisnick RF I could see anyone in red being swapped around in that order. I think Singleton has a decent sophomore campaign and goes behind Gattis with Castro batting behind him. The only "crazy" thing I could see happening is Lowrie and Castro switching spots. Castro batted second in 12 games last season and did decently well (rabble rabble small sample size rabble rabble). Lowrie actually performed better further down in the line as well last season and spent a bulk of season batting sixth.
yeah I could see that lineup as well. I guess I figured the Astros probably have Marisnick pegged as an "on-base" guy that would make him ideal for the 7th spot but until he can prove he can hit at the major league level, they'll play him last. Agree on Lowrie moving down but the combo of Springer-Carter-Gattis-Singleton is very feast/famine and we probably need him at the top of the lineup as the set-up man. If Castro can regain his stroke, he's possibly a candidate for the 2 spot and/or Robbie Grossman if Marisnick can't hit the ball. The wild card to me is Singleton, if he performs like we hope, he could bat anywhere between 3-6-- or we dump him to the bottom of the lineup until he finds his stroke?
As long as Castro is on the team, he's second on the depth chart..although there will probably be a few lineups where Castro is the DH
Valbuena, Lowrie and Castro have all demonstrated an ability to get on base at a decent clip at some point in their careers. While Altuve is the only guy that projects to have a really good OBP, we could have quite a few guys with plus OBP. (league average was only .316) Castro has allowed his K-rate to get completely out of control. I think he allowed his aberration in 2013 to mislead him into believing he's a freeswinging slugger. He put up a .257/334/.401 slash in 2012 and I've always thought that was his realistic ability. If he changes his approach I hope he can get back to that level. Singleton clearly has the best potential Power/OBP combo, but he is a complete unknown. I would keep him down in the order until he starts showing some results.
That's why the trade concerns me - Altuve's "really good OBP" is tied entirely to his ability to generate base hits. He doesn't walk. At all. So if regresses this year (highly likely), his OB% is likely to suffer. As currently constructed (and on paper), the Astros have a glaring lack of guys who can get on base above and beyond. Solo HRs seem to be the team's backbone.
Marisnick now likely with the inside track on being the everyday CF... also very likely that Springer sees some extended run there at his natural position (before he totally fills out and is just incapable of playing the spot anymore like Beltran eventually became). The lineup will need some work though... outside chance they still look to take a flyer on a veteran that nobody wants in case the unknowns (Singleton, Marisnick, Grossman) all decide to falter. Would like to see the $5-6 million they saved by trading Fowler re-appropriated to further improvements on the major league roster.
This is my opinion, but Astros should either have confidence to bat him higher in the order or go with Carter or Gattis at 1st. If he isn't good enough to bat up in order, Grossman in LF is more valuable.
"Regression" to the mean works both directions (unless you want to call it progression to the mean when positive). Zips and Steamer both have Singleton regressing more positively than Altuve. Astros on paper have an average OBP team (maybe slightly below) with moderate power. Base running, defense, and pitching are weak.
A much needed trade. This trade upgrades center field defense. It upgrades 3rd base. It brings in a strong competition for a 5th starter. I am glad Marsnick gets his chance. He is a perennial gold glove in center field. He just has to be respectable with the bat. Without Fowler, the outfield looks good. Defense and offense well distributed. MARSNICK IS THERE for defense. Gattis is there for offense.
This move likely upgrades the outfield defense, but the infield defense? Castro-Singleton-Altuve-Lowrie-ValBuena/Dominguez? a pretty below average infield. Not sure if there is a defensive stud among them (Dominguez--maybe, but I think he's been a relative downer)
Right now the Astros just need a respectable team. The future of 3rd base is Colin Moran, and he is at least a year away. Dominguez cannot be troutted out there with the futility he showed last year. So now there is a real 3rd baseman. There is a real SS in Lowrie. The Dominguez, Villar, Marwin Gonzalez experiment is over. Not to say Dominguez wont repeat 2013 success, but the Astros have real competition.
Astros potential roster in a year-to two years? Projection based on what the front office is probably thinking...Correa/Moran should be called up no later than 2015-2016 season. This is also based on team control with what we have in the arsenal. Altuve--2B Correa--SS Springer--RF Carter--DH (possibly traded/new prospect) Gattis--LF Singleton--1B Moran--3B Marisnick--CF Stassi/Castro?--C
I'm not entirely sold on Valbuena, but he drew almost as many walks last season as Feliz did if you combine the two best years of his career.
