notice in the miami game, padgett was barely on the floor. The Miami game is only one of the few wins where we got a huge lead and didn't blow it in the fourth. Chicago, Padgett was on the floor A LOT, especially in the end. guess what happened...yup, we whittled away a 21 point lead and won by one point in the end.
Padgett was on the floor a lot vs. the Spurs as well now, this makes me wonder: why does JVG keep playing Padgett? We should stick to our Miami lineups!!
http://popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/gameflow.cgi?date=20061118&game=HOUDET Game flow from the Detroit game. During Detroit's 4th quarter 17-1 run, notice who were on the floor for most of that period, and who were sitting. The 5 guys on the floor: Yao, McGrady, Howard, Head, Snyder. Interestingly, the Detroit run began right about the time Yao entered the game for Mutombo. Perhaps his D was exploited. Perhaps Howard+Yao was just way too slow a combo. Guys not playing during the stretch: Rafer Alston, Shane Battier. I have noticed a tendency for Van Gundy to sit Battier to begin the 4th quarter. Last night particulally, he DID NOT ENTER THE GAME until 4:38 was left (and Detroit's 17-1 run was pretty much finished). So, my conclusion about that run was: Too much Juwan, too much Head, and not enough Rafer and Shane.
He's at +2.6 Howard's (-15.3) meanwhile is well below Padgett's (second worst on the team) and Novak's (-29.0) is the worst on the team, by a wide margin. If you're talking about who should sit in place of Novak - it' s not Padgett, it's Howard.
WHY would you want Wafer Rafer in the game last night after that horrendous performance by him?!?! The guy was getting ABUSED and RAPED by Billups. Billups tore him not 1 but 2 new nostrils down below. Wafer Rafer could not even buy a shot. He was bricking everything and did anyone say pass first?? He had 1 assist the whole time!!! 1! Uno! That's as many blocks as Juwan gets in an entire season!!!
Generally, it's smart not to put too much stock in +/- for individual players so early in the season. But in Juwan's case, this has been the pattern ever since he's been here. His +/- has been poor when he's been in the starting lineup, coming off the bench, against starters, and against reserves. And his individual productivity has sucked as well and has been steadily slipping for three years now. It's funny how people were ranting that JVG needed to play Juwan more in the preseason and after the first couple of games in the regular season. Well, they got their wish. After 9 games, the Rockets have now been outscored in 7 games with Juwan on the court. I'm sure Morey must be pulling his hair out with the all the overwhelming evidence he has in front on him that Juwan is simply not producing at an acceptable level. Can he (or will he) convince JVG of it?
Taking Durvasa's stats a little bit deeper, For the Detroit game: Alston -16 Howard -15 Battier -11 Head +4 Snyder +12 Snyder and Head +4 Snyder and Head without Rafer +8 Snyder and Rafer +4 Snyder, Head, and Rafer -4 Padgett +11 McGrady -23 McGrady without Howard -9 McGrady without Howard and Rafer -6 Yao -25 Yao with Howard -16 Yao without Howard -9 Yao without Howard and Rafer -1 Yao with McGrady -27 Battier with Snyder +5 Battier without Snyder -16 Battier without Alston +10 Battier without ALston and Howard +10 Team without Howard +1 Team without Rafer +4 Team without Howard and Rafer +8 Possible conclusions: 1. My goodness man. What is it going to take to see that Juwan does not fit alongside Yao, plain and simple? How many times is Van Gundy gonna run Juwan out there before he realizes this? Padgett ain't nothing to write home about but the +/- difference between him and Howard is astounding for this game. 2. There is no way that Yao and McGrady should be going -27 on the floor together. I'm sorry, but that's not their fault. It's the role players around them. 3. There is no way that we should be going -25 with Yao on the court. 4. Of the role players surrounding 111, you would have to say that Battier is not the problem either. He is too fundamentally good and he is a part of the core of this team. That brings is to Juwan and Rafer. 5. Rafer is what he is. Obviously, he cannot defend anybody out there, so when we get into these games with highly efficient all star backcourts like Detroit's, the only way that Rafer can make a contribution is he HAS to be hitting 3 balls like crazy, and/or distributing 7-8 assists for him to even have a chance at evening out the desparity between him and a guy like Chauncey. And when McGrady is doing the majority of the initiation, it is impossible for Rafer to distribute the ball. He becomes a spot up shooter who cannot defend, so if he isn't nailing the 3 ball, JVG has to get him out of there. Be that as it may, point guards are so hard to find. I am not for trading him. He did have an off night shooting the bball last night. It may have been just one of those games or it may have been the start of a trend (continuation of last year's trend). But Rafer is a legit NBA point guard. I don't see anything better out there available right now. However, VSpan is waiting in the wings. Rafer should be hearing footsteps, especially after this game. He was a nonfactor offensively and defensively, he was a sieve. Van Gundy cannot go on too many more games like this. So much for Rafer's Lenova ratings. 6. Despite Snyder's 2-3 typical horrible shots, he still had very good +/- numbers. I don't know if I attribute this all to him or partially the fact that he was on the floor for some minutes with Head without Rafer and without Juwan. 7. Howard-it is so obvious that this guy is not a fit. How many ways do we have to see it and how many times do we have to see it? We had the same scenario last year starting games in a 10 point hole because he can't stop anybody and if he isn't hitting shots, it is doubly bad. Rafer has not been consistently bad this year. Howard has been consistently bad, continuing this year from the past 2 years with no breaks inbetween. 8. You've got to have intelligence, quickness, defensive ability, and athleticism around McGrady and Yao. Howard is as slow as a slug out there, and has zero defensive ability and athleticism. Rafer has good quickness and decent intelligence but no defensive ability and average athleticism. VSpan on the other hand has intelligence, quickness, defensive ability and okay athleticism. JVG has got to get Howard out of there or this run of mediocrity will continue. JVG needs to find some minutes for VSpan to allow him to develop and it should come when Rafer is getting beat up defensively and when he isn't hitting shots.
Rafer and Howard apologists, and also JVG apologists, look at those numbers and read this. I have always said this and will keep saying it. Juwan Howard and Rafer Alston are 2 HUGE LIABILITIES for a team trying to contend for a championship. You cant have your lard-loaded cake, eat it all, AND lose major weight!!
There's a perfect way of preventing JVG from playing him. No way for JVG to play him if he's with another team, right?
They traded Mo Taylor's useless ass with 3 years left on his deal and even got a 2nd round pick for him (and remember who that 2nd round pick turned into?). So why the **** not?
As much a scrub Taylor was, he was not as well known as Juwan Howard. 10+ years of playing and constant losing has earned Juwan a pretty bad rep. I am guessing even Isiah would laugh hysterically at a Juwan trade proposal, unless of course its packaged in a really sweet deal. That's how Juwan got here in the first place.
Because as dumb as the GM/coach over in New York is, he's unlikely to make the same mistake twice. It's like fleecing the second-hand goods guy for an incredible deal once, you're unlikely to get the same deal from him a second time. Heh. That said, Padgett's +/- is nothing to write home about, but I believe the guy is only effective in spurts. He's the sort who'll play great if you insert him for 5 minutes in a game, but he won't be able to keep up his contribution after the defense adjusts to him. We've seen it a lot in '04-'05. JVG brings him in for 5 minutes, he hits 1/2 big 3s, yank him before the defense adjusts and shuts him down completely. The problem now is, Juwan is not the answer either. And Battier is shaky at the 4 rebounding-wise. He'll stay on his man, he'll hound his man, but having Battier at the 4 effectively leaves Yao to do all the dirty work, going after rebounds alone. No knock on Battier, he does tip a lot of rebounds to his teammates, but what we need is a strong rebounder who has a nose for the ball, because Yao simply isn't that kind of a rebounder. That's Rubber Chucky's true value to us, imo. But since he's out, we're left with just Howard, Battier and Padgett who can play PF. If I were JVG, I'd be running a PF-by-committee rotation instead of giving huge chunks of minutes to Howard and Padgett. It's a 48-minute game, rotate the 3 guys in and out of the spot to give defenses different looks and keep them on their toes, maybe even play McGrady there and have Alston run the show for spots.
