Despite limited minutes, there should be a ton of value in having Asik backing up Howard

OK

We are strong in interior defense only with either or both only. We will not be a top 5 defense with no perimeter defense. When the playoffs come teams with a Duncan or Durant, etc. will be hurting us badly.

Now if we can play one of them at a time we still have a top interior defense. If we play them both we still do. Why not try and get a perimeter defender instead and hopefully one that clears up the 4 spot? Do that and the team is strong both offensively and defensively.

I do like the idea that Asik could come off the bench and keep the basket well protected. It is still a luxury though when we have a huge weakness at a key spot.

 

I've calculated wins based RAPM values of last season, esimated minutes played (EST. MP), and adjusted RAPM's due to age, here is the comparison of Asik vs Anderson.

Asik 24 min, Dwight 30 min:

Code:

Rockets	MP	Est. MP	age	XRAPM	Adjusted	per game
J Harden	36.4	32	23	5.12	5.4	3.6
D Howard	33.2	30	27	5.5	5.5	3.44
O Asik	30	24	26	4.55	4.7	2.35
J Lin	32.2	32	24	0.4	0.6	0.4
Parsons	33.6	32	24	-0.13	0	0
G Smith	13.5	15	22	-0.87	-0.5	-0.19
T Jones	3.4	10	21	-2.64	-2.2	-0.55
Beverley	17.4	22	24	0.43	0.6	0.28
F Garcia	12.5	20	31	-1.7	-1.7	-0.71
Donatas	6.6	10	22	-3.67	-3.2	-0.76
others		13		-3.5		-0.95
						
		240		Points	Diff.	+6.91
				Adjust	Pace 95	+6.63
					Wins	[B]58[/B]

Anderson 32 min and Dwight 32 min:

Code:

Position	Rockets	MP	Est. MP	age	XRAPM	Adjusted	per game
SG	J Harden	36.4	32	23	5.12	5.4	3.6
C	D Howard	33.2	32	27	5.5	5.5	3.67
PF	Anderson	32	32	24	0.39	0.55	0.37
PG	J Lin	32.2	32	24	0.4	0.6	0.4
SF	Parsons	33.6	32	24	-0.13	0	0
SF/C	G Smith	13.5	15	22	-0.87	-0.5	-0.19
PF	T Jones	3.4	12	21	-2.64	-2.2	-0.55
SG	Beverley	17.4	22	24	0.43	0.6	0.28
SF	F Garcia	12.5	20	31	-1.7	-1.7	-0.71
	others		11		-3.5		-0.8
							
			240		Points	Diff.	+6.07
					Adjust	Pace 95	+5.77
						Wins	[B]56[/B] 

The projected difference is -2 games. Playing Asik 24 min will result in 2 more wins than 32 min of Anderson. Asik at center will give Pelicans at least 5 more wins than Anderson.

Here is what Pelicans will look like:
PG - Holiday
SG - Gordon
SF - Aminu
PF - Davis
C - Asik

That is a solid young lineup with huge upside. Davis is only 19, Holiday and Aminu are 22. Asik with Davis will form a formittable front line! They will be vying for 8th spot THIS year.

KEEP Asik!

 

A Howard/Asik center combo will be crazy.

It may sound cool to put them both in at the same time, but no. Have a real PF play the position( for the most part) not a true center.

I think there will be times when both are in at the same time( special occasions) but it benifits Rockets more having 1a and 1b at center. Can't wait!

 

We should keep Asik if anything for the purpose of being able to guard the Grizzlies in the playoffs.

 

Not to derail the thread too much, but Deke played 267 games for Houston between '04 and '09, of which only 32% he started (85).

In '04-'05 in particular, Yao and Deke played 80 games a piece, with Deke starting for the two that Yao missed. Deke averaged 15 mpg that season, with Yao averaging 31 mpg. Rockets were 4th in DRtg and 3rd in Opp ppg. Yao had a 99 DRtg with Deke at a 96 Drtg (by far the two best on the team).

Combined, they averaged 13.7 rebounds and 3.3 bpg. They were a pretty sick center duo, and injury/age slowed only them down from this peak year production until that fateful second series vs LA.

 

Nice. The PF spot is all about fit. Ideally the Rockets should lean towards 3 point shooting (to space the floor opening up driving lanes for Lin and Harden), speed on the fast break (neither Asik nor Howard are going to be there right after the wings) and defense (gotta have someone to chase Love and LMA around the court). Plus you also have to consider what is actually available to the power forward. Adding Howard to last years second most prolific offense (and with Asik backing him up) leaves few points and rebounds available to the PF spot without taking them away from Parsons, Harden and Howard. Seems like people want an all-star scoring machine at power forward, but that just seems like a waste of talent and money to me.

 

I agree that playoff match-ups should be a major point of emphasis. Here's a breakdown of other possible playoff match-ups, assuming Rockets are truly contending this year:

Match-ups

 

I personally want more analysis and less stats from you.

 

Why would the offense be worrisome? It was top five in the NBA last season and the Rox added the best PnR finisher in the league to pair with one of the best PnR ball handlers in the league. D12 also being one of the better offensive rebounders in the league.

Rockets do what teams that gain experience do and cut down on turnovers they should be a top 5 offense top 10 defense

 

I don't think there's any question that having Asik as a backup is a huge luxury.

Problem is, there is no way Asik will resign here, and there is no way Morey will let one of his prized assets go for nothing. As much as Asik would help the team as a backup in the remaining years on his contract, Morey has to be thinking long term and how to turn this team into a perennial contender. If he truly believes that home court is a "stretch goal" for this season, then there is still plenty of work to be done in building the team. In that scenario, Asik isn't the "final piece" that put us over the top, but rather a pawn setting up our next move.

One of the great values of Dwight Howard, and why a max contract for him is so worth it(besides being a great player), is the amount of minutes he can shoulder when needed(like the playoffs). I remember some who argued last year that $8.5M for Asik is a better deal than the max for Dwight. Let's forget for a second that Dwight is quite possibly twice the player, literally. But just the fact that Dwight is capable of playing 38(or 48 when need be) minutes in a game compared to Asik's barely 30 even though we sorely needed him last year is invaluable. Having an overqualified backup overlaps this great advantage.

Of course having a capable backup makes a great deal of difference like you demonstrated. If anything, it tells us Greg Smith does not quite cut it. But just this offseason guys like Jermaine O'neal, Greg Oden, Kosta Koufos, and Marcus Camby have been available for a fraction of the cost. Asik is better than all of them of course. But when you factor in the opportunity cost of what Asik could bring, and the negligible net difference he would make over those other guys in what could amount to merely 10 mpg in the post season, its probably not worth it to hang on to him.

 

Last year Rox were 16th in the league in team defense, and 6th in team offense. If this year Rox's team defense with Asik and Howard jumps up all the way to 2nd, and offense falls to 8th...I'll take that!! Bottom line the Rox will find ways to score posts...too many options, especially if JLin starts playing to potential. But defense...!

 

There is championship value with Asik, but mainly as a backup.

 

Last year there were at least ten teams where Asik clearly guarded the other team's PF better than anyone else on our team did, excepting in some instances Patterson (i.e. Smith, DMo, Jones, Delfino, Morris)...

List:
LeMarcus Aldridge
Blake Griffin
Tim Duncan
Al Jefferson
Zach Randolph
David West
Pau Gasol
Nene
Chris Humphries
David Lee
Carlos Boozer
Antonio Davis

Asik also would do a good job defending Dirk and Amare

 

I truly believe that 48 minutes of full press defense is what vaults this team over the Heat in a 7 game series. If Asik gets traded, I'll still be excited because I'll expect no less than a borderline star in return.

But for now, I see D-Mo starting.

 

Asik backing up Howard will allow Howard to play pedal to the medal defense and not worry about early fouls. He can gamble more on the defensive end and so can Asik.

 

Great post.

You do realize that Asik proved himself last season as a quality starter in this league correct. You also know that Morey was trying to trade him, but imo the offers wasn't up to Morey standards. We can best believe if a quality offer is presented Asik will be traded.

I would love to keep Asik , but I just see him staying.

Can someone show Asik stats as a backup in Chi-town.

 

I can't think of a championship team in the last 20, 30 years that had two centers ala Dwight/Asik, in that the backup was a very capable 30 mpg starter the prior season, in his prime, getting paid like a starter (though probably a little less than current fmv for him), then relegated to 15-20 mpg the next season because an even better center came along.

That's not to say I don't value the importance of great interior defense. Sheed/Wallace, Gasol/Bynum/Odom, etc. of course makes sense. ABSOLUTELY, if Asik/Dwight can play together for 15 mpg effectively, then I can see it working.

But otherwise, it's too much of a luxury when you are so so bad at PF.

 

Howard and Harden will play at least 38 -40 minutes a game.

 

I hope not.