Apology to Batman, but figured it was time for another. This shortlist is from the WSJ and I thought it made sense...
Of these choices... I hope: Sebelius. If not Sebelius, Biden. I predict: Bayh. If not Bayh, Biden. But the Obama camp's been so good about controlling leaks, I'm not totally confident this is a real list. Obama can go one of two ways: safe or splash. If safe, I think it's Bayh or maybe Biden and the list is real. If splash, I don't think anyone on the list (except maybe Clinton) qualifies. If he wants to be bold - and I think there's an even chance he does - I think he goes off-list with a name we haven't really heard yet, as rimrocker predicted months ago.
I voted Sebelius because she's still my preference, but I get the feeling the ship's sailed for her on this. As for Reed, I think he finally issued a credible thanks-but-no-thanks today when he said he'd say no if it was offered. I still don't regard that as the final word (not even with Strickland or Webb) -- I think that if anyone receives this offer they have to reconsider. But Reed seems pretty sure about this. Also, he's just so short. Bayh makes the most sense on paper now. Former governor, young and energetic (if dull), puts IN very much in play with 5 statewide victories there.
Bayh and Biden both voted for the war, which makes them bad picks in my book. I think Reed is a totally safe pick and that is what I predict these days. A safe pick that happens to be a paratrooper that voted against the war. Plus they look good together. I wouldn't be surprised with an off list pick. I still like Bradley for that.
Dont forget .... Ann Veneman http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12059.html Obama veep team floats GOP name Barack Obama's vice presidential search team has floated the name of a member of President Bush's first-term Cabinet, Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman, as Obama's running mate. The search committee, now led by Caroline Kennedy and Eric Holder, raised Veneman's name — among others — in discussions with members of Congress, said two Democrats familiar with the conversations. The mention of Veneman's name surprised Democratic lawmakers. The low-profile Republican was close to food and agriculture industries but clashed with farm-state Democrats and environmentalists during her tenure, which lasted from 2001 to 2004. But Veneman, 59, has a biography that could be suited to Obama's unifying message. A Republican raised on a California peach farm, she rose to become the nation’s first female agriculture secretary. In 2002 she was diagnosed with breast cancer, which was treated successfully. Today she serves as executive director of the United Nations children's agency UNICEF. The selection of a Republican could bolster Obama's unifying message, a Capitol Hill Democrat familiar with the discussion said. "You select a strong independent woman who appeals to Republicans and independents, and so that's hard to beat," the Hill source said, explaining the logic of the possible choice. "Choosing someone like [Veneman] doesn't hurt you with the Democrats. It just doesn't hurt you. But it helps you with Independents and Republicans." See also Veneman's is one of about a dozen names suggested by vetters in a round of meetings with members of the House and Senate within the last few weeks. Veneman's name, unlike the others, has not been previously reported. Choosing Veneman would be a way to "show that he can get things done without all the partisanship," said the Democrat familiar with the discussions. "Her appeal would be nonideological. It would be, 'I'm just here to get the work done.' She's not a hot-button conservative." Other Republicans mentioned as potential Obama running mates include Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, who accompanied him to Iraq, and retired Marine Gen. James Jones. Obama spokesman Bill Burton declined to comment on any aspect of the vice presidential selection process. UNICEF spokeswoman Kate Donovan declined to comment on the news that Veneman's name had been mentioned as a prospective running mate to Obama. She said Veneman is traveling in Africa and could not be reached. Though Veneman's biography and Republican affiliation make her a plausible, if surprising, candidate to be Obama's running mate, the mention of her name was met with incredulity on Capitol Hill. "Are you serious?" one lawmaker asked vetters when Veneman's name came up, a second source familiar with the conversations said. The surprise stems from the fact that, while Veneman was seen as an experienced leader for her department, she often clashed with Democrats on a central battle front of the Bush years: regulation. Veneman was criticized by some Democrats and environmentalists, and praised by agriculture and food interests, for lightly regulating the industries and for encouraging trade and biotechnology during her tenure. When she resigned, the American Meat Institute praised her "vision and commitment." She also clashed with Democrats — including then-Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, who is now an Obama confidant — over subsidies for small farmers, which they sought to expand. In the best-known incident of her tenure, she led the administration's response to cases of Bovine Spongiform Encephalitis, known as mad cow disease. The epidemic was contained, but the relatively light U.S. testing regime has led to continuing barriers for American beef exports. At UNICEF, Veneman has traveled widely, focusing on extending children's health services in the developing world.
Biden has been excellent defending Obama's position changes and he's usually the first line of defense when the repubs start their 'flip flop' attacks. He may very well be the dems top debater. So obviously i'm sticking with Biden for VP -- the Dems are clearly giving him as much exposure as they can, which is a bit of a 'tell' IMO.
I agree about the war vote, but it's only one factor. Looking at the whole picture, I still regard Bayh as the safest pick. It's weird to consider Biden "safe" considering his problem with running off at the mouth and getting in trouble, but he somehow combines elder statesman and some measure of excitement. I think voters would be comfortable with him, so I put him in the safe category. Reed would be a safe pick too, but he really seems like he doesn't want it. And there's not enough to recommend him for it (IMO) to overcome that. His appearance with Lieberman a couple weeks ago was damaging: Lieberman was the more engaging and exciting of the two and that's a very bad sign. Today might be the first time I could see Bradley getting it. Of course, he's pretty dull too. One big upside though: they'd have a great time playing basketball together.
This is all true. And nobody in the party would be better in the traditional VP role of defender/attack dog. I could be very enthusiastic about a Biden pick.
Take Reed out of consideration... http://www.beloblog.com/ProJo_Blogs/politics/2008/07/reed-on-the-vic.html "I am interested in serving in the United States Senate and that interest trumps any consideration of serving as a vice president,'' Rhode Island Democrat Reed said in an interview this afternoon. Reed was asked: "If you were offered this position you would decline, is that correct?'' "Yeah,'' he answered, "but I frankly I don't expect to be offered the position.'' Reed added, "I want to continue to be a legislator,'' and said he thinks he could best help an Obama administration "here in the United States Senate.'' Reed said, further, that he has not been asked by the Obama campaign to answer questionnaires, put investigators in touch with accountants, or take other such steps necessary for checking the background of a prospective vice president. That fact, Reed said, makes his point that a slot on Obama's ticket "is not an offer that I will have to refuse.''
I hope Bob Schieffer really puts Hagel on the spot tomorrow morning. I'd like to hear what sort of denials he might give, not so much because I think he's a real contender for VP but because I think he's a real contender for an endorsement. If Reed's telling the truth about not being vetted that seals that deal. If he's not, it would be a very awkward walkback.
At this point, Hagel's endorsement of Obama is a forgone conclusion. It's a matter of when, not if. I would expect him to dance around the issue tomorrow and make the endorsement on his own terms at a time of his choosing. I still think Bayh is the most likely choice for VP.
Biden has done a great job of keeping his foot out of his mouth lately, but some of his old comments will pop back up if he is named. Of course Biden is very smooth about talking his way out of those slips of the tongue. It kind of becomes a -- 'oh that's Joe being Joe' deal.
I agree he's been a lot better since the "clean and articulate" thing. Hopefully he finally gets what a big deal these slips can be. As long and successful a career as he's had he's never been under a spotlight so bright as he would be as the VP nominee. And no presidential candidate needs that sort of distraction. If he's the pick (and I'd be happy if he was), he needs to do better than talking his way out of those slips; he needs to be careful not to make them in the first place.
I disagree. Hagel and McCain have been close friends for a very long time. And, on everything but Iraq, Hagel's views align with McCain's not Obama's. He's indulging his independence now. That doesn't mean this lifelong Republican is going to endorse the Democrat. I think Iraq's a big enough issue to him that he could go either way, but it's anything but a foregone conclusion.
I agree, i'm just saying he is going to have to address some comments he has made in the past and does a good job of apologizing while explaining why he made the statement in the first place. We are on the same page as far as Joe not making any more questionable statements before the election -- very distracting.
