Democrats should go into another line of work if they can't retake the House

5/10?

Delaware Rep Mike Castle (R) has presumably had two strokes. He's cancelled all appearances between now and Election Day, including a planned debate with his Dem opponent. The Dem, Dennis Spivack is a law partner and friend of Castle, so rumor is this will stay civil and Spivack will not make a big deal of it... if Castle does win but is unable to perform, the Dem Gov will probably appoint Spivack.

(via Kos)

 

6/9?

First real signs of trouble for someone connected with Foley... from two different polls...

 

Major's right, the redistricting, gerrymandering, and money machine are stacked much differently this time around. Will is trying to find a silver lining in the abject failure of the last few years of Republican leadership by raising the bar a few inches and then using it to make a disingenuous judgment.

 

7/8?
__________

The Congressman's Night on the Town

By Lloyd Grove
Friday, April 4, 2003; Page C03
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&contentId=A23714-2003Apr3&notFound=true

In his dark suit, knotted tie and official congressional ID pin on his lapel, Republican House member Mike Ferguson looked out of place at the Rhino Bar and Pumphouse, a Georgetown saloon popular with college kids.

"He shouldn't have even been at the bar," 21-year-old Georgetown University junior Michelle Mezoe told us. "He and his group" – two unidentified staffers, also wearing suits – "stuck out like sore thumbs."
New Jersey Rep. Mike Ferguson on the campaign trail last year. (Daniel Hulshizer - AP/File Photo)




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Yesterday Mezoe accused the congressman, a 32-year-old married father of three representing New Jersey's 7th District, of grabbing her in the wee hours Wednesday morning. She said Ferguson removed his ID pin and handed it to her, saying she could keep it if she would "come back and have a drink with me." Mezoe said she refused to return it unless Ferguson apologized for his "disrespectful" behavior. An apology was not forthcoming.

Ferguson initially refused to speak to us, leaving his chief of staff, Chris Jones, to counter: "What I can tell you is this is absolutely ridiculous and false. . . . The congressman emphatically denies this." Jones wasn't at the bar.

Late last night Ferguson changed his mind and dictated to us the following statement:

"I was having a couple of beers with my staff when she approached us and noticed my pin and began to ask about it. In a conversation that lasted fewer than five minutes, I had taken off my pin to show it to her. She then took the pin and walked away, and wouldn't give it back until the police were called. Any other sensational stories about this are outrageous and false."

Mezoe said the incident began around 1 a.m. as she strolled past Ferguson, who was leaning against the bar on the second floor. She said Ferguson, a Georgetown alum, grabbed her by the arm and pulled her toward him, introducing himself as a member of Congress. He pulled out his congressional ID card, she said, and pointed to his pin. "That's special," she said sarcastically. "Yes, it is special," he replied earnestly, she said.

"He came across as very arrogant, as though he was invincible," Mezoe said. "He appeared older, slightly balding, not someone I wanted to talk to. . . . It was very obvious I was a student and not someone to sit down and talk politics with over a late-night drink. I don't think he was interested in my political views."

Mezoe told us that as last call was announced, Ferguson gave her the pin – which she attached to her shirt. When she declined Ferguson's offer to "come back" for a drink, Mezoe continued, Ferguson demanded his pin back. According to Mezoe and other witnesses, she refused to return it unless he apologized, and walked away.

A Ferguson staffer tried to change her mind. "This guy in a suit came up and said, 'I'm sorry, it's my fault. I brought him here and got him drunk, and that's why he's behaving like this.' He asked for the pin and started stroking my hand. I told him, 'If you think you're helping the situation, you are sadly mistaken.' "

Then, Mezoe added, a young jeans-wearing woman, who seemed to be with Ferguson's group, approached and tried to remove the pin by force, grabbing at her chest. The attempt was unsuccessful. Finally, Mezoe said, she was granted a brief audience with the congressman as his aides stood close by. "What is your perspective on what happened here?" she asked. "You stole my pin and you won't give it back," he answered. To which Mezoe replied: "How old are your children, Congressman Ferguson?"

Mezoe said the staffers immediately interposed themselves between her and their boss. "You have offended the congressman," one informed her, she said.

Ferguson's chief of staff yesterday insisted that no such words were ever uttered, that no hand-stroking occurred, and that no young woman with the congressman's party ever approached Mezoe and grabbed at her.

But everyone agrees that Mezoe stood her ground, even after manager Dave Nelson offered her a $50 gift certificate to return the pin. "I won't be bribed, it's the principle of the thing," Mezoe responded, continuing to insist on an apology. Nelson then called the police, and after 2nd District D.C. Police Officer Robert Ferretti arrived and cuffed one of her wrists, Mezoe said she returned the trinket. No charges were filed, and the police department's public affairs office declined to make Ferretti available for an interview.

 

I dunno. Seems to me as long as abortion and affirmative action are legal, and taxes are higher than 0%, the Republicans will own the Rural Midwest and the South. Then mix in the "border crisis" (which will always seem to be a problem to some due to a permanently increasing Hispanic population) and the permanent spectre of Middle Eastern terrorism/nuclear armament, on which Republicans seemingly have a more unified argument (which makes it easier for them to attack Democrats on these issues).

I think a George Will type writing this article really is just pre-emptive spin, overstating their chances beforehand so he can call them failures after the fact for not re-taking Congress, and then creating a premise by which he can attack the Party as a whole, rather than just their '06 strategy. This reminds me of the '04 Democatic Convention, where Republican commentators were gushing over Clinton's speech, but only so they could marginalize John Kerry by contrast.

 

Tidbits from TPM... and Newsweek has Bush at 33%...
_______

Earthquake. The Cook Political Report changes its ratings in 14 House races--downgrading GOP chances in every one. Election Central has the rundown.

.....

The NRCC dropped $7.8 million yesterday into 30 House districts.

But here's the thing. It's not just the size of the expenditure. Of the 30 districts in question, 27 are currently held by the GOP.

....

So let Republicans complain all they want about the timing of the Foley disclosures, the Clintons' supposed involvement, the mysterious hidden forces trying to do the GOP in.

I love the sound of Republicans whining. It is the sound of Democratic victory.

 

The fact that the GOP is crying about who exposed it or the timing of it all is just a strange strategy.

Because the alternative would be that Foley wasn't exposed and allowed to continue stalking and harrassing underage pages. Is that really what they want to argue in this case?

 

If the democrats can't get the house now with the sex scandal on top of the NIE report and Bob Woodward's book.....

They should disassemble as a party on the National level. I mean, it would just show that they have become irrelevant and out of touch with America.

 

The House looks like a done deal. It would take a major revelation to change momentum at a time that 53% want a Dem takeover, about 25% are satisfied with the direction the country's going in and over 60% believe the Speaker of the House should resign. If they get any momentum from the GOP's hamfisted defense of Hastert's cover-up, they might take the Senate too. It's beyond conceivable now that they could take the Senate with one to grow on.

Democrats need to pick up six Senate seats and lose none to take control of the Senate. Currently their most vulnerable incumbent is Menendez in NJ. He was in some danger but he's been trending upward lately and is currently 3 points up. The pressure is such that his challenger, Kean, broke ranks with GOP leadership and came out today to call for Hastert's resignation. Republicans also had hopes of picking up a seat in Maryland but those hopes are all but dead.

There are seven real opportunities for Dem pickups.

1. Montana will almost surely go to Tester. The Republican incumbent Conrad Burns has made one misstep after another and he is all wrapped up in the Abramoff gunk. He hasn't led in a poll (and there have been dozens) in months.

2. Likewise Pennsylvania, where Bob Casey has led Rick Santorum all year.

3. In Rhode Island, "RINO" Lincoln Chafee has been within the margin of error a few times, but looks increasingly likely to lose to Sheldon Whitehouse.

4. Ohio has been Sherrod Brown's to lose for most of the year and that state's rapid trend to Democrats is almost certain doom for DeWine.

Those four look very much like solid pickups now. There are three tossups, one of which went from a longshot to a probable Dem victory.

5. Due to recent revelations, Bob Corker is flailing in Tennessee and Harold Ford, a conservative D by any standard, is looking increasingly likely to be the first black Senator from TN. He currently leads by 5 points. This is the race for retiring Sen. Bill Frist's seat so there is no incumbent.

6. Missouri has gone back and forth all year, with McCaskill (D) and the incumbent Talent (R) trading one, two and three point leads (all within the MoE) all year. If there is national momentum for D's, this should be a pickup.

7. And George Allen has done everything in his power to fritter away his political future in Virginia. He currently leads by 3-5 points, but he is in serious jeopardy. And his challenger, Jim Webb, while not a natural politician, is an ex-Republican and ex-Deputy Defense Secretary under Reagan that switched parties due to Bush's generally horrible stewardship -- a position shared by more Republicans across the country every day.

Add in the Newsweek poll which puts D's ahead as the preferred party to handle the top ten issues most important to voters (including the war on terror and moral values) by between 7 and 20+ points and puts Bush's approval back down at 33% and it's very believable that Democrats will control both houses of Congress one month from today.

Happy days aren't here again yet, but they're awfully close.

 

As long as there isn't a Diebold sized f***up.

 

It wouldn't surprise me to learn that Diebold himself is a Democrat by now.

 

If the election were held today, I think Dems would win my top five. Corker hasn't led in a couple weeks in any poll and I'm thinking the Foley stuff plays in TN. We don't know yet what will happen over the next month, so I won't say that stuff will definitely hold.

I'm thinking the Foley scandal will also help McCaskill in MO, edging her out of the tie she's been in all year.

The Allen-Webb race is the one of the seven I am least confident about. But the momentum is very, very strong now for Democrats across the country. And this race is competitive. Anyway, however much I want Webb to win VA, we don't need it for a majority if the other six fall our way. If the Foley/Hastert stuff keeps going (and there are new stories today), it might even make sense to look to the races in NV and AZ.

The smart money right now has to be on at least 5 Dem pickups. And the House is ours.

 

Would you mind explaining this further?

 

I was looking at the Times most recent Senate electoral prediction map, and they have 40 safe Democratic seats, 7 leaning Democrat, and 4 tossups. The GOP has 47 safe, 2 leaning, based on the polls, which really don't reflect the most recent scandal with Foley, or the deepening impact of Woodward's book, which I bought and skimmed (cause my wife's reading it, lol!), and will end up being huge, IMO, after the analysis of these mid-terms over the years.

My take is that Democrats will take all 7 seats leaning their way (every race has the Democrats with a double digit lead), for 47. The 2 Republican toss-ups will split, with John Kyl pulling out the win in Arizona, and Webb beating Allen. That's 48-48. It all comes down to the 4 "toss-ups."

In my opinion, Menendez pulls out a close one in New Jersey, and it will be Bush's fault... the fall-out, if you will, of his unpopularity. That, and the Foley scandal. That's 49-48. I think DeWine loses in Ohio. Ohio is going to be a disaster for the GOP this time around, unless Diebold changes the results. (lets hope not) That's 50-48. Ford wins in Tennessee, and a new star emerges for the Democrats. He has a 5 point lead, without the Foley fallout, and leads in cash on hand, which is remarkable. The guy can raise money. That's 51-48. The last toss-up is Missouri. Talent should be toast, but he has a huge lead in cash on hand, and will be flooding the airwaves with negative ads. McCaskill would be an excellent senator, but is not as strong a campaigner as one might wish. I think she can win, but I'll give this to the GOP. That's 51-49. Democrats control the Senate.

That's how I see it. I'm sure some will disagree. A couple are very close, but I think the next polls will move more Democratic.



Keep D&D Civil.

 

All this talk of Democrats controlling Congress reminds me of Twins fans last weekend looking to the ALCS series against the Yankees. As in the memorable words of Yogi Berra it ain't over til its over and there's a way to go until the election.

 

In my case, it's what I'm predicting. I've been predicting the House for months, and said the Senate was a possibility, although very difficult. It looks possible now. Still difficult, but unlike a couple of months ago, no longer a longshot. Instead, it's in play, and is doable, with a break here and there. Yes, there's a ways to go, but that distance is getting shorter and shorter. Bush's approval rating, which he's been working hard to improve the last couple of months, has dropped back down to 33% in the latest Newsweek poll. As Bush goes, to a great extent, so goes the election. It doesn't look good for the GOP. The wheels have come off their mid-term election train!



Keep D&D Civil.

 

It doesn't help the GOP but ultimately each race has to be won by the names on the ballots and GW Bush's name isn't on any ballots. If it was just a matter of generic Democrat vs. generic Republican the Democrats would've won the Senate in 2002 and the Presidency in 2004. What has hurt the Democrats has been when a face has been put to generic Democrat.