Democratic National Convention Thread (August 25-28, 2008)

Great news! I'm looking forward to a major bump.

 

It's a three day poll but the bounce didn't show up yesterday (which would have been directly post-Michelle); it showed up today (directly post-Hillary speech). It makes sense. She did an amazing job and apparently a lot of her supporters came home.

Tomorrow's poll will show response to Bill/Biden/roll call.

 

I don't usually post kos stuff here, but this is good enough to merit two in one day.

On the "Greek" columns:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/28/154959/237/1009/577658

Uppity... Pillars? What The Hell?
by Hunter

Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 02:00:10 PM PDT

Gawd. So they're really going with this, eh? Their attack is going to be that the elitist Barack Obama is using... ETHNIC ARCHITECTURE?

What the h... I mean, how does... with the... and half of D.C... the White House... aaaargh.

Holy ****ing Thundercats, I can't even find words for the stupid. Nobody can be this stupid. Nobody. Not even in politics. Not even among Republicans. I don't care if they're paying you to be this stupid, I don't care if you're having daily meetings to decide how to best be stupid, I don't care if you're an ten-time gold medalist in synchronized stupidity, it's not possible. You could drill a hole in your skull and fill it with mayonnaise and olives, and you still wouldn't be this stupid. You could convince yourself you were a tropical fish, and dunk your head in an aquarium to breathe the cool, refreshing water, and your decomposing body would still be smarter than this two weeks later.

I just can't take it anymore. I knew that Republicans were going to be engaged in an all-out, no-holds-barred festival of attempted outrage, throughout this whole thing, but... I have no words. This is what McCain is running with? This is what Fox News has farted onto American television screens, in an attempt to fairly and balancelyed find a new way being offended at the uppityness or foreignness of this scary, scary ethnic candidate? It's not that Hillary Clinton said "I" too many times, or that Bill Clinton did not smile sufficiently, or that Barack's kids were insufficiently something-or-other -- now the architecture is uppity?

If this architecture is now "foreign" or "divisive" or whatever the Bambi thumper flapjack nachos they're trying to convey -- and I can't even surmise what it would be, not being the sort of person who sees hidden messages in my breakfast cereal -- wouldn't they have to redesign all of Washington? Don't we have to now pass a new bill calling white columns "Freedom Pillars"?

Make. It. Stop. We're electing the leader of the free world, not having a national ****in' staring contest with the dog. Just. Make. It. Stop.

 

I really don't think anything could bump it up harder or faster than Hillary did with her speech, but last night was great enough it should still be good for a couple more points.

 

Can someone post that picture from the 2004 Republican Convention again? You know, the one with the Greek temple pillars?

 

the convention's been great, i expected a bounce, it may not last, the republicans may do better, but this has been great. they have crafted this thing for television, and michelle and hillary both gave outstanding speeches, and their speeches were exactly what was needed from each individual. and the role call moment was even great with hillary announcing obama as the candidate

pat buchanon was making the point that the convention should have been more authentic with all the factions given a chance to voice their opinions (particularly the role call), and then another person on the panel finally made the point you can't do that in today's 24 hour news age.

 

Again! It's been done before



In 2004 Bush accepted his nomination before a backdrop of Greek revival columns, too.

 

Caveat to the above though:

All that has to happen to make the bounce look really big tomorrow (and even more on Saturday, when all three days of the poll will have been post-Hillary speech) is for Obama not to lose any support.

If the calculations are right, and he doesn't lose points tonight, Saturday's poll should show somewhere around a 15% edge. That big a bounce seems unfathomable to me and yesterday's poll could have been an outlier, but it's within the realm of possibility.

 

I don't think your math is right here. The 6 pt lead includes 2 out of 3 days of polling that included the convention. After 0 days, Obama was down 2. There was a 3pt swing with one day of polling, and another 5 pt swing with 2 days of polling. If Obama gains no more ground, then he'll probably have an 9-10 pt lead tomorrow, and that would be the full bounce. If he does gain ground from the Biden/Clinton/Obama speeches yesterday and today, then it would be higher - but you might also start losing some of the Michelle/Hillary bounces and there will be interaction with the McCain VP pick.

Its a great sign that he already got a 6 pt bounce. But ultimately, it's irrelevant for now. The polls will bounce up and down with this convention the GOP one - about 2 weeks from now will be the first real "useful" polls in my opinion. Until then, you have lots of noise mixed in.

 

I think that's a good analysis. McCain's VP pick, provided he doesn't pick someone completely detestable, will dampen some of Obama's bounce and with the RNC so closely on the heels of the DNC an Obama bounce might be very short lived. Unless Obama gives a phenomenally transcendent speech tonight I highly doubt the bounce will be as high 15%.

 

I don't claim it is. It's not my math. I'm just relating a kos diary (linked above) that calculated, right or wrong, that yesterday's one day poll would have shown a 15-16% advantage. If that's true (and I'm not saying it is - I'd love for someone who's mathematically inclined to figure it out here), he currently has a one day lead of 15-16. At the very least, we know that his one day lead is higher than 6 since the 3-day poll the day before he was only up 1.

 

who cares, this is just another ploy to divert our attention away from the real issues....WHO CARES, focus people focus!

 

Being into architecture I find the use of Greek columns to be weak and hackneyed. If they want to win my vote Obama should've gone with this as his backdrop.

 

The Greek coulmns are a pretty standard architecture/place visual que. The idea is that you visualize the guy in Washinton. And Greek buildings are the where democracy was born. Flags and columns, what else would you use?

 

The math is impossible to really say without knowing all of the 1-day samplings. Because in addition to adding yesterday's polling, you drop 4-days-ago polling. Without knowing that, it's hard to say. What we CAN say is Days A/B/C gave Obama a 1 pt lead. Days B/C/D gave Obama a 6 pt lead.

Since each day has a weight of 1/3rd, you'd need a 15 pt differential between A and D to get the swing of 5 pts. That said, A could have been a really bad day of polling.

Example #1:

A = Tied; B = Tied; C = Obama +3 (that's a 1 pt lead)
B = Tied; C = Obama + 3; D = Obama +15 (that's a 6 pt lead)

Example #2:

A = Obama -5; B = Obama +4; C = Obama +4 (1 pt lead)
B = Obama +4; C = Obama +4; D = Obama +10 (6 pt lead)

Example #3:

A = Obama +6; B = Obama -4; C = Obama +1 (1 pt lead)
B = Obama -4; C = Obama +1; D = Obama +21 (6 pt lead)

So in the three examples, you have very different results. Now, if you keep going back over a week or two, you might be able to back out all the possibilities of the daily totals, so maybe the DailyKos did that, but I'm guessing he just estimated Example #1.

 

the new 6pt bounce is after day 2 of the convention. after day 3 with bill and biden, i expect the gap to extend to 9-10 pts. if obama does his job tonight, i expect the bounce to exceed double digits (10+).

but that gap will be reduced with the RNC as expected. then it's down to hard campaigning.

more importantly, look at the polls in the "SWING STATES." these national polls don't really say much b/c we're going by the electoral college.

 

good lord this speech sucks. wow. thank god kaine wasn't the VP choice. this is embarrassing in contrast to biden last night.

"move mountain!" are you kidding me with this?

 

in response to your sig...shandon would be a great fit for this team. He shined in utah because they were talented and he played his role well. that is the exact opposite of luther. When he came to houston he was forced into a role he couldnt fullfil, 2nd or 3rd option.

 

Rock it Stevie!

 

wtf? is fox even covering the convention? i was flipping through the news channels and I saw the O'reilly factor on.

fair and balanced my ass.