I'm sure there will be some other candidate in the primary, but I don't expect it to be a big name and I doubt it'll be much of a challenge for Biden. Yeah, he's old. And his approval ratings are down. But it takes a lot more than that for a party to abandon a sitting president.
The best hope for the Democrats would be if Biden decided not to run. Right now, he shouldn't announce that he isn't running.
If that's the case, Harris would also have to not run. She hasn't done anything to inspire "fence" voters to vote for her.
I think if Biden decided not to run - and did it far enough in advance (I'd say beginning of 2023), you could have an open primary. It's super-important Harris is not a default candidate and it would allow other candidates enough time to declare and join. If Harris wins a primary, so be it - but she needs to earn it and prove people want to vote for her, given her performance in the last campaign.
I would be happy if she didn't run, but don't think that is as likely. I don't even know if Biden would choose not to run, but he might. I'm pretty sure Kamala Harris would run if Biden didn't. She does have some support on her own, but those voters would vote for Biden anyway if they bothered to vote at all. I agree that she doesn't have appeal to fence voters. It seems like she's doing everything she can to make sure she is a team player for those in Democratic leadership in hopes for their support.
I don't know if that's the best hope. Biden can run with an incumbency advantage. Kamala Harris might have been able to 'inherit' this incumbency advantage if Biden were to announce he wasn't running, but the Admin would have to have done a lot of groundwork to really tie Biden and Harris at the hip and make it look like electing Harris is just a vote for the continuation of the Biden Admin. It looked early on like they might do that because Biden gave Harris some tough jobs. But either because Harris couldn't step up, or Biden wouldn't support her, or media has done a great job of assassinating her public persona (or some combination of the three), we are not now on track for Harris to be a seamless successor to Biden. So now, if it's not Biden then it's an open primary, Harris is not a strong favorite (or a favorite at all), and that incumbency advantage is all gone. With the electoral strength Trump somehow still has, and the perils of letting him win -- is it really in Democrats' interests to surrender the incumbency advantage and gamble on some young, new face? I think Trump will have a good shot against Biden. I think he'll win if Democrats offer anyone else. And honestly as much as I applaud the empowerment of minorities in the Democratic party, giving the swing voter who'd actually consider a vote for Trump an unconscious misogynistic, xenophobic, or racist motivation to doubt the new Democratic candidate won't be helping matters either. I think the actual best interest of the party is to run Biden again, health permitting. Regardless of which one wins in 2024, they won't be running in 2028. Then you can have two younger non-incumbents that can take the mantle of their respective parties for a younger generation. Now sure, it'd be a neat trick if someone like Buttigieg could wrest the nomination for Biden and then win the general and take the incumbency advantage into 2028 and perhaps yield 12 straight years of a democrat in the oval office. But it's just not likely to work -- Trump will call him a fairy and too many voters will silently agree with him.
I also don't see anybody yet that wants to tackle all of these issues, but that could change in the next year. I think we need another 4 years of Biden, he has been dealt a terrible hand with covid and the supply chain issues and I don't want anybody trying to change things radically. I also don't think voters really want an unknown at this point.
Are we going to war with Russia? It’s good we’re ignoring Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands to stop aiding Ukraine. But we should grasp what that might lead to. https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2022/4/17/23029161/are-we-going-to-war-with-russia excerpt: Is the United States heading toward war? It seems a very real possibility. Some arms convoy in Poland will be hit, and the gears of general conflagration will start to turn. It’ll all seem inevitable, afterward. Then we can be haunted aplenty. Just to be clear. I’m not saying the United States shouldn’t continue arming Ukraine. We have to. Which means we must accept the possibility of war. We don’t like to think about that. The whole strategy of handing weapons to Ukrainians and letting them actually pull the trigger is a tactic designed to avoid dragging ourselves into actual fighting. The easy way. more at the link
POLL SHOCKER: Sununu Beats Biden for Prez in Head-to-Head https://nhjournal.com/poll-shocker-sununu-beats-biden-for-prez-in-head-to-head/
Democrats are fcked What is their answer gonna be for crime and inflation? They are getting hammered on both points. they will get mauled in the midterms and pass nothing of substance the next 2 years People think the public will flock to the polls for 4 more years of Biden?
I don't think Biden will run, he will be like 192 years old..... Hopefully someone like Pete Butigige(sp?).....will inspire......or someone else...... We need another Obama a very smart person that can inspire confidence in people and relate to those that are less educated like the GOP base. DD
Biden will run again. Democraty party heads doesn't think there's a problem when their leadership positions are mostly septuagenarians and over (Schumer, Pelosi, Biden, Warren, Sanders). If there really was a prole revolt, their dusty corpses and assets would be the first to be liquidated for the blood of the people. But we're soooo progressive, equitable and life changing!! Why aren't we winning over the millennials and younger crowd when we jive with the values we tell them to like?!?!?
Yep, they are too old.....and are full of ****, they talk about change while lining their own pockets. DD
So who are they going to flock to the polls for? I was thinking this as well, but republicans can't get out of their own way, and they don't have anybody to galvanize them. I think Trump will divide the party enough to depress turnout so that low Democratic turnout will not cause a huge landslide. I think you are also missing all the positives that have happened since Biden has been in office. I will say things have to be turned around by august or it's a wrap.
no one…they better hope everyone is still as anti-Trump as they were back in 2020, but something tells me they won’t get 2020 levels of support from Independents…Republicans even slowly gaining support from minorities just look at the names that constantly get mentioned: Biden, Kamala, and Pete…that’s the starting lineup for a tanking team…those are Olive Garden lunch options Biden is old and has a low approval rating…Kamala is basically black Hillary Clinton with less experience…lol at Pete Dems have trash messaging so whatever positive is done is completely overshadowed by the constant talk and narratives surrounding the negatives…there’s a reason they are projected to get absolutely body slammed in the midterms, and once that happens it’s a wrap because they will get nothing done
Actually it's America that fcked.... There is not one good candidate on either side.. Biden or Harris.. Trump or DeSantis.... T_Man
I got more faith in Pete than you, I think he is smart enough to create a galvanizing message, and he is pretty inoffensive, I don't think Democrats need much more to go against the Republican craziness. The margins are still really close, and I don't think Republicans can coalesce around anybody outside Trump, and if the next candidate tries to be Trump lite they will turn off the independents.
