(Debbie Downer) How Much Do We Really Over-Rate the Rockets?

The OP has his eye glasses cleaned and he sees the obvious.

The team has digressed considerably since TMac went off the radar as a legit star whenever you feel that happened.

This team must be rebuilt to win a championship.

Here are the reasons that the current team is over-rated ( if anyone thinks they are contenders this season)-

1. Yao needs time to heal and has to return to very dominate play- he has to be as good as he has ever been consistantly- he is the superstar of this team and although he is my favorite Rocket and a great person and was a strong low post scorer I do not see him dominating again... yet.
2. Yao is being used in Adleman's motion offense and this really limits his ability to dominate in the post. Yao is at his best when the offense is run through the post and the team plays more 1/2 court ball. Problem is both Brooks and Lowery are very very good transition point guards, they are both weakest running a 1/2 court offense and thus Yao will not be able to excel no matter what as long as this offense is played.
3. The team defense is no where near what it needs to be to run an offense suitable for Yao. This team was correctly set up to use Yao's strengths when it was structured to be a top 3 defensive team and a 1/2 court offense.
4. There is still no interior defense except for Yao that prevents teams from abusing the Rockets in the paint- this will hurt if they make the playoffs.
5. Although they are a competive team because of the hustle play of Scola, Brooks, Battier and Lowery they have no go to scorers except Yao. A team can scheme this team defensively by stuffing the hot hand, whether it be Martin, Brooks or Yao.
6. Not enough Superstars, if Yao regains superstar stats by season end he will get too much attention in the playoffs and there will not be another player who can carry a team through the hard part of a 7 game series.
7. Basically this team is not structured to Yao's strengths and lacks another top 10 player that fits a motion/ transition game.

 

Wake me up when it's regular season and some of your points can be backed up with on-court evidence.



And it's Lowry, not Lowery.

 

Lowry is a great transition oriented point guard, thanks

Stay awake and you will get your wish.

 

it

You took what i wrote out of context. Just forget it.

 

let's not give the OP props just because he's not buying into the hype. If you're trying to be objective, that's great...personally i dont believe they'll win, but that doesnt mean i dont believe the season can still be a success. There's still a huge gap between where we've been and winning it all, so there's a large grey area we can land in this season and consider it a stepping stone.

The OP isn't offering any suggestions, it's all a rant about how we're wrong to think we can win anything. I dont even think that many people truly believe it, as he's assuming. They just think it's a possibility if everything goes well and we catch breaks...but that doesnt mean they all believe we're going to run through everyone to a title.

And saying we're at best the third best team in our division??? That alone tells me he's just emotionally ranting. Dallas has been better and improved, but after that no one improved enough to surely be better than this Houston team. The only team that was better last year was a team that's aging rapidly and only had an 8 win advantage. I say "only" because Houston can definitely make up for that this year with more depth, a full season of martin/hill, and yao back for half the game. .

You can't say "hey we're over rating the team" only to proceed to under rate them.

 

We also had Ron Artest.

 

Ok, so adelman's system keeps him from dominating, but you say he needs to heal to be dominant? You can't use both of those, it's one of the other.

And half your assumptions are based on the team's performance last year. When they didnt have PP, Hill or Miller. They're not DH clones, but to assume they don't improve our defense and/or size is ridiculous, at least let the season get under way before jumping to this conclusion.

And all of your points are extensions of others...you're really just saying they need to improve their d, get yao back healthy, and acquire another superstar...not that it's easy, but lengthening your points makes it seem like there's twice as many things on the to do list.

 

Fair enough, that's how I am too.

I like watching Rockets games for general entertainment. But I certainly don't think they're going to the Finals this year. I'd say there's less than a 5% chance of that happening, and I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

I think that's all the OP is saying... no reason to get all hyped up and disappoint yourself by expecting the Rockets to win the Finals.

 

Championship team...It's always possible, not likely, but possible.

I don't see the 50 plus wins either, simply because transitioning Yao back into the line up, is simply going to cost us some games. The tempo is going to change from last year, and the more up tempo flow will stop and stagnate to try and get Yao more "INTO' the flow.

Which is fine honestly, i'm not concerned about 50 wins just to get bounced in the 1st round. It doesn't change anything whether you get 50 or 80 and get bounced...you still got bounced.

I can see the 40 to 45 win range, and i'd gladly accept that IF by the time the playoffs come around Yao is looking and feeling great.

And i agree to a degree with DD, i don't think Yao is a leading superstar, but i don't think he's really a role player either. Yao is a a superstar big man, that needs a certain system, and a specific type of point guard to really make himself elite, but with help...if that makes sense.

rhester is actually correct in that Adlemans system doesn't benefit or really work in Yao's favor...Van Gundy's did more so. Doesn't mean Yao can't have a good year, or play well, but the system isn't designed for big slow lumbering big men, it simply isn't. That's why i also think Brooks and Lowry both aren't the right type of PG we need to make Yao a real threat each night. IMO we need a PG in the mold of Nash or Billups, one that can either hit open shots, and draw out defenders, or make their way into the lane either by driving, or posting up.

Having a post up PG like Billups can, would really benefit Yao, as Yao is very good coming from the weakside to rebound and get put backs. Now if Adleman can figure out a way to effectively play his more up tempo princeton style game AROUND Yao, but still use Yao like a half court set up, then Adleman will have found the best of both worlds...

Just my opinion

 

sounds like you and i are the same, then. i'll be watching as well. looking forward to going to the game sunday night, in fact.

 

I wasn't calling you dumb. I just re-read my post and it almost sounds like I was. My bad.

Like MadMax says, those of us who aren't predicting a championship this year aren't basing it on 1 preseason game. I, too, have been saying it all summer (on the rare occasion that I post in the GARM).

The thing is....everyone here seems to be saying "if Yao is healthy..." If someone told me Yao was going to be 100% and play in 82 games this year and all the playoff games, yeah....I might predict a championship. At the very least, a WCF berth.

But I (and others) don't think that's going to be the case. I don't think there's any way he finishes the season on the court. I love the guy as much as any Rocket ever, but I just don't think it's going to happen. And the bottom line is...no healthy Yao = no championship (unless we make a blockbuster trade mid-season).

To tell you the truth, as much as I LOVE Yao....I don't think he'll ever be back to the way he was pre-injury.

And NO, I'm not basing that on 1 pre-season game.... I'm basing that on the last 16 months.

 

fixed....lol #justsayin...that's what I gathered from all of that.

 

The only hope for us to win a championship or even sniff postseason success is if we trade a bunch of our role players for a superstar.

I think by the end of the season, one of Brooks or Martin will not be on our roster.

 

Its over?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsmybQKpmTw

I don't know why there is a dog in the video..

 

If we only start three guys every night, we will be the worst team in the league.

 

You know what I mean.

 

Wow. That just goes to show you what happens when you journey down the negativity rabbit hole just how deep the hole can go. Textbook example of a self reinforcing diatribe.

Of course the Rockets have shot but to place the odds literally at 0 is denotes a great loss of perspective. I'd say it's likely they make the playoffs and having a reasonable shot at getting past the first round. As you point out matchups and injuries play larger factors (for all teams) as the playoffs progress which makes your prediction of 0 chance even more silly.

 

Thanks, and you're correct, I view a healthy dominant superstar Yao absolutely necessary to this team having a objective chance at going deep in the playoffs where special things can happen.

 

You mean like the old complaining guy named leebigez? The rockets are my favorite team in all of sports and it pains me that 5 yrs ago, we were better than the lakers and now they have been to the finals 3 times in a row with 2 titles. Most on the board will say they got lucky by getting gasol, but why the rockets can't get lucky? Boston was a rare circumstance, but why we can't have a rare circumstance? Now, we see miami,boston,la, are all loaded up with teams like dallas,orlando,ok city,portland, and a slew of other teams getting better with high end talent as well and younger star type players. We collect and shuffle assett, but to me, its over. I'm not talking about this preseason game stuff, I'm talking about the rocket being serious contenders. To be honest, I never thought they were anyway, but people will point to the 2nd rd playoffs as to say how close they are. When they lost to the non experienced utah team after having a 2-0 lead and homecourt advantage, I knew they wouldn't ever win anything. When they got artest, I was the one saying they need to make other impact moves because the roster was ready yet. Once yao went out for the entire year, it made zero sense to hold on to shane and a few other older or limited guys for the sake of the year after when a hobbled yao was coming back.

Look, I know its probably easier said than done in the league with real time salaries and players, but you're either in or out. Just in our division, the rockets are 3rd behind dallas and the spurs. The northwest division is probably the best division in basketball and will probably have 4 50 win teams this season. The lakers are the lakers and are the best team in the west. So the rockets are anywhere between 5-10 which is in the middle of mediocrity. Maybe they will get lucky and get the 5th seed and play a team like ok city and advance to the 2nd round and lose to the lakers again. Maybe they come in as a 8th seed and lose to la in the first round and get it over quick. I just think its over and its not just because Yao isn't 100% either. They have too many alike players with differnt skills. They don't have a single 2 way player on the roster other than yao and he's limited to 24mins a night and is an injury waiting to happen. The players are either good offensive or good defensive which means the players are just ok. I will attend my share of games and watch every one and record all , because thats what i do, but I'm just real about the situation.

 

1. Rockets might make the playoffs this season, barely.
2. Texans will make the playoffs.
3. Astros are my favorite baseball team.