For DaDa, here's a link for at least a few of the CNN/Opinion Research numbers. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/07/cnn-poll-obama-won-the-night/
Looks like Independents are breaking for Obama. I would have to think Ms. Palin helped on that front a lot! Does Mccain regreat his VP choice now?
palin was more to energize the republican base. she was NEVER going to get a lot of independents b/c she's so far to the right and she's so incompetent.
I mean she pushed independents away from Mccain! He gained base but might have actually lost more independents.
On CNN they were talking how at this moment, there are more Democrats than Republicans in this country. McCain NEEDS independents. He can't split them and he certainly can't lose them to Obama. Also, Bush's approval rating is 29%, but when you factor out the Republicans it's only 10% among Democrats and independents. McCain is having trouble breaking free of Obama's characterization that McCain is "more of the same".
I think the thing that came through in this debate is that McCain *still* doesn't understand the audience. When you're asked a question on the financial crisis, you don't talk about earmarks. Period. He's just not connecting with voters at all because he doesn't seem to understand what voters are interested in. If that doesn't change, none of the Resko/Ayers/etc crap is going to do anything.
And that's the fine line you have to walk when you use that strategy. How do you energize the hardcore right without alienating independent moderates? Lieberman and even Ridge, McCain's original choices for VP, would certainly have drawn in (or at least driven away less) independents than Palin. But the base wasn't going to accept Lieberman's nomination for VP and they kind of forced McCain to paint himself into a corner where his path to winning the election has become increasingly narrow.
I think the republicans also underestimated women voters and thought Palin would bring them in irregardless of issues.
Speaking of which, I'm am absolutely ecstatic that I haven't heard anything regarding PUMA since the DNC.
Mccain didn't really think through his VP choice, he is a gut feeling type of person and made an impulse move.
To be fair though Obama also ignored some of the questions put to him and jumped to something else. For example he pretty much ignored the heart of the question about whether health care should be left to the private sector and went on to talk about his own health plan.
Oh I agree with that - none of these people answer the questions, and that wasn't what I intended to convey. The point is what they DO answer about. People want to hear about Obama's health care plan. They don't want to hear about earmarks. In 2000 or 2004, earmarks make a lot of sense to rail against. But he's fundamentally misreading his audience if he thinks they care about earmarks right now in the middle of an economic meltdown. He just supported a $700 billion bailout bill, proposed a new additional $300 billion in mortgage help, and has offered $1 trillion in tax cuts. That's a total of 2 trillion in new government debt. No one cares about $14 billion in earmarks right now, and focusing on that just makes him look more out of touch.
I hold Ms. Palin in very low regard, but I think the break away from McCain is more about the woes of the economy.
I'm not sure the basic premise is entirely true. I think there are definitely more Democrats combined with anti-Republicans. I'm not sure there's a huge difference in the number of Republicans and Democrats. The other part of your post is definitely true. McCain needs independents and his performance hasn't helped.
Fox news just spent a half hour on Bill Ayers. Do they even know there was a debate tonight? How can a news network just go off on its own agenda like that? It's incredible. For the sake of equal time attack politics, I hope MSNBC is spending a half hour on the Keating 5.
Pretty good debate. There are more substance in this debate than the VP one, that's for sure. My opinion is that once again, there is no clear winner coming out of the debate. There is no major gaffe, no amazing punchline, no knockout blows. Nevertheless, good energy from both participants. From the POV of an independent however, Obama is going to have a slight edge. One debate tactic that Obama (and Biden) exercise, that McCain apparently have yet to figure out, is to agree with the opponent when they are at their strongest moment. One clear example is that after McCain came off a strong delivery on a foreign policy issue, Obama would start from some of McCain's positions, and then go on to detail his own subtle adjustments in order to transcend the idea one step further. Obama has been using this tactic to "share" McCain's brightest spotlight, as well as a more bipartisan image. Speaking from experience, I think Obama won the independents. Not because he had a much more superior debate performance. Not because McCain won't look at him or any other silly games. Not even due to the facts or figures or quotes. It is all about his character, who he is and what he will become. The Obama brand become stronger every time he gets on national stage. Independents who listen will eventually realize the vast potential this man possess. And when they do, his skin color, or his funny name, or any other silly excuses that had been holding them back, would all of sudden become insignificant. Even if doubts on his experience or leadership remain, Obama had successfully overcome these stigmas by demonstrating that he is a fast learner. Even though in my mind Obama wasn't a clear winner in either debates, he had exceeded expectation set by media narrative. By setting his bar a little higher every time, independents will latch on his capacity for growth. And it could only had been possible by debating McCain, who set a high benchmark by offered a fine performance of his own. If the debate is between Obama and Palin or Bush, this performance subtlety would had been wasted (aka. Kerry vs. Bush). The McCain campaign's last ditch smear attack is not going to little effect on the independents. People who still have not make up their minds will not take any news or propaganda for granted. They are going to spend the extra effort to find the truth, to look deeper into the surface. Ayers or other similar smears are a double edge swords for the McCain campaign, because the mere mention of Obama will directly feed into independents hunger for curiosity.
