The best shot blocker in the league only blocks an average of 3 a game. You're out of your mind if you think 3 fgs are enough to turn us from lottery bound to champion. What we need is an all star calibre big man to complement our all star calible backcourt, and an upgrade at the sf spot. Trying to get JOrdan would be useless because the Clips have already said they will keep him. Marc Gasol should be the target instead. The Grizz are forever in cheapo land, and I find it hard to believe they will break the bank for Gasol when they are already paying Gay the max, Conly Jr 9M a year and are in discussions with Zach Randolph. A sign and trade of Hill+picks+cash should be a tempting deal for Memphis.
I'd say he's worth about $8.5 mil per. averaging 7 and 7 doesn't sound all that great, but when you consider he's only playing 25 minutes a game, he's averaging more like 9 and 9 over 32 minutes a game, which is really good for a young, raw player. Plus he's blocking about 2.5 shots over 32 minutes. But it's a moot point because we can't afford him without doing a sign and trade, right? And Jordan being restricted means the most likely outcome is that the Knicks or some other team with cap space signs him to a $10 mil per year offer sheet, which the Clips can't afford to match. Right?
I'm all for getting DJ. I think he has potential to become a good starter in this league and he has the skills we need.
I agree with you a little bit. But the number of shots a big man changes, discourages from ever being taken, or makes more difficult is much more than the amount he ever blocks. I think mostly the number of blocked shots can tell you a little bit about the overall defensive impact a guy has, but other times it can just tell you that a guy wildly swats at every shot taken, which is basically the big man version of "gambling." Sure they might get a lot of blocks recorded, but they're also leaving their man open for dish offs or offensive rebounds. JaVale McGee is the first guy that comes to mind. That being said, Yes I think erasing three shots a game could potentially help you win a lot of games throughout a season. The only thing I worry about with the Rockets getting a defensive big man, is they're often saying we should trade Scola to do it. I just think a front court of Hayes and someone like Jordan is going to make our offense a weakness where it was a strength. I agree with you in that my first choice would be a guy who is more well-rounded like Gasol, Bogut, etc. Especially if we're paying him 11 million dollars.
I understand where you're coming from about trading Scola for a defensive big. I used to feel that too. But it wasn't as big a deal with Hayes playing alongside Yao. People tried to make it a huge deal that you couldn't play Hayes and Battier together because they were both underperforming offensive players. But the problem back then was you had a third guy (Rafer), who was essentially your third option behind Yao and McGrady, who couldn't hit a layup. We don't have that problem now. We've got a different offense that is not centered around McGrady working the top for the jumper or the pass. We've got 5 guys moving, catching, passing, cutting. It's a different setup. And with Martin, we've got a guy that needs to take as many shots as possible because of his extreme efficiency. The next point I want to make about having two defensive players in the game at the 4/5 spots is Chuck is much, much more than a one-way player in Adelman's system. Chuck is our BEST high post playmaker. Let that settle in. You know why? He doesn't settle for the 15 footer like Scola does. He looks for the cutters first. And he gets them the ball. It's the more efficient basketball play. (By the way, don't be surprised if Hayes works all summer shooting a thousand 15 footers a day and comes back next season with a very decent 15 foot jumper. Sounds ridiculous, but watch it happen. Hayes is a worker like Olajuwon. He adds something every summer. Last summer he became a more adequate free throw shooter. He's going to add another skill this summer.) Hayes is not a negative offensively. Our offense is better when he is on the floor. It was worse this season when he was off the floor. All this is prefaced in regards to Adelman's offense being in vogue. If we run Adelman off and bring in a different coach with a different system, all bets are off. And really, until we know for sure who the coach is going to be next season, it's impossible to really speculate on which players should stay or go beyond some obvious cases of players that just do not have great skillsets or brains to play (Hill/Thabeet). Those guys should be removed from the roster under most any circumstance. They simply aren't going to be very good NBA players......ever.
If we continue with Hayes as center, we wii be a perennial mediocre team. It is time to realize he is not starter material!!!
He's not going to replace Yao. He's just going to stand in the paint and block shots. As well as dunk when possible. Scola will do most of the heavy lifting.
You're not taking into account the weight of those blocked shots. Those shots that are turned away could be absolutely crucial or even change the flow of a game. Maybe the other team is on a 8-0 run and that blocked shot gives us momentum. Maybe we extend our run with a blocked shot. Maybe after getting blocked so many times teams get intimidated and settle for jumpers or long threes. A shotblocker is crucial. Remember how badly our defense sucked when Yao went out? That isn't because Yao is the greatest defender in the history of basketball... it's because Yao was big and he blocked shots occasionally.
I wished there was a defensive statistic for ball strips and tipped passes that led to change of possession. Whether Hayes blocks shots or not is immaterial. He more than makes up for it with the number of ball strips he gets. The ONLY thing Hayes does not give us defensively is a shot blocking presence. That's it. Actual shot blocks are immaterial. It's the ability to affect shots and to make shooters change shots, to make the high flyers bend and twist and contort their bodies to have to make more difficult layups. Hayes doesn't give us that. He can't. He's 6'5". But he gives us everything else defensively. I wished there was a statistic for "extra possessions created". Something like Offensive charges drawn plus offensive rebounds plus turnovers created from strips and blocked shots minus turnovers. IF we had the data on that, we would find out that Hayes is either the league leader or one of the top league leaders on extra possessions created for his team. And yes, Hayes offensive charges drawn and ball strips have changed the complexion of many games in our favor.
just say no to DJ especially for $10 mill a year. if we want a big with "potential" and "shot-blocking ability" and "the chance to work with yao or dream" we already have him in thabeet. what's the difference between DJ and thabeet anyways??
Had him for fantasy bball.. I wouldn't mind. He stepped in and tried to fill in the void for Chris Kaman. Having to be drafted in '08, this or next year- I would assume his ceiling is drawing close however. In summary- Depending on coaching, I wouldn't expect too much; just settle. Good role player (on or off the bench).
Master Plan 1. Keep Adelman or Promote Turner 2. Sign Deandre Jordan + Yao for his expiring $17 M (DJ $12M, 5 yrs & Yao $5M, 3 yrs) 3. Resign Chuck 4. Trade Scola + T-Will for Granger (Pacers want to play Paul George and need a PF) 5. Draft BPA (May trade one of those picks as sweetner in Granger deal) Lowry/Dragic Martin/Lee Granger/Bud Hayes/Pat (With Pat moving into starting lineup depending on improvement) Jordan/Yao/Thabeet This leaves us under last year’s payroll and upgrades our two biggest weaknesses (SF and C) giving us a huge paint presence (Yao and Deandre together in crunch time would shut down the paint) and better perimeter D. IMO this team puts us top 5 in the West. If we have to go as high as $15M, 5 yrs for Jordan, I say we do it. If we have to sweeten the Granger deal with a draft pick or one of our youngsters do it, we have two picks to replace any of our subs.
Someone stated earlier blocking only 3 shots a game wouldn't help a game significantly... The fear of getting blocked keeps people from going into the paint. How many teams play in the paint against Orlando or Milwaukee how they play us? Get DJ trade Scola move Hayes to pf and boom we have some of the best paint D in the league. Then Pat comes in second team and can block as many shots as DJ. Move Scola Hill Twill whoever to get us a better 2 way SF and we are 5th in the west. Lowry Martin New guy Pat Dj 6/7/8 Pat Bud Dragic. 8.5... Thabust? haha
My only problem with Jordan is that I don't want to see the Rockets get handcuffed by another bad contract as was often the case before Morey came along. Jordan looks very interesting, but I wouldn't want to see this team overpay to get him.
