Its a similar risk to what DM did with Landry. I dont think Landry was ever not in DM long term plans. He waited and let the market be set and then matched. Who knows if any extension was offered, but Leeb thinks Lowry could get the MLE. Others expect him to have wanted to sign the same contract that Sefolosha got. Obviously there is a major gap in the 14 mil Thabo got and the potential 32 mil for the full MLE.
Is it possible to go over the salary cap by resigning restricted FA of your own team? Meaning, rox sign a FA at the max cap space which is about 10-13m, then resign Scola and Lowry? Which will essentially brings rox over the cap space?
It seems smart to me to not extend Lowry. The flexibility is too valuable to give up early. 1. His cap-hold may be $6m, but if you need the cap space that cap-hold is easy to get rid of. Either renounce him and get all $6m, or sign him for whatever his value is. 2. In the meantime, Lowry may get injured. Or, a trade may make him redundant. Or, a team might see his expiring contract (while still holding bird rights) as valuable in a trade. Why tie yourself down before you have to? 3. Restricted free agency depresses salaries. 4. An extension avoids the risk of free agent flight, but Lowry is unlikely to be able to leave in free agency anyway. The Rockets will be able to match any offer. Teams with cap space won't bid for him as they go after the big fish. Then there will be a bit of a feeding frenzy with the MLEs to get the many second tier free agents that will be on the market that year. Who will want to tie up money for 7 days in an RFA in the biggest free agent bonanza in years? 5. The only danger for the Rockets in a prolonged RFA negotiation is the offseason-long cap-hold it would require. But, they can still negotiate with other free agents knowing they can break that cap-hold at any time. An early extension provides no benefit.
Best take on the subject I've read, JV. Thanks for the clear explanation. I hope it works out well for the Rockets.
Am I the only one who thinks that if the club could resign a valuable player (Lowry is arguably one), then you go ahead and do it. The above assumes that Lowry wants an extension for a reasonable contract (for both parties). For the longest time after Cassell and Smith(10 years), we have been looking for a good pg. Now we have two good ones. If there is a way to lock them up earlier, I would think it would be smart to do it. You cannot assume Brooks will be healthy all his career with the Rockets. ps. Shaking in disbelief at an earlier post that stated that Lowry is as good as gone. WTF????
This. I think you're "spot on" with regard to the Rockets' bottom line plans. My concern in the OP is more based on your explanation in #5. Since I am a big fan of Lowry's, I would have liked to have known if the Rockets even DISCUSSED an extension with him. Had Lowry been willing to sign a deal similar to the one Sefalosha got, the Rockets may have missed a real opportunity. Sure, making him a RFA maximizes the Rockets' total possible cap room. But, as I've stated before, the likelihood that the Rockets would be willing to dump Shane (via trade), Luis (renouncing his rights), Kyle (renouncing his rights) and Chuck (decline team option) for ANY player this side of Lebron James is unlikely, in my opinion. Therefore, that extra cap room is not so meaningful. Better to have kept Lowry and had $3M less in cap room than the Rockets would have had by dumping him. If Kyle has a great year and the Rockets make the playoffs, a lot of teams will come calling on him in free agency. He may end up getting "overpaid" (albeit probably not at lebigeez's "full MLE" market price), and Morey's calculating mind wouldn't match a bad contract. I still can't believe no one offered Landry more than $9M over three years IN SEPTEMBER of 2008, after free agency had largely died down. The Rockets dodged a bullet there. Still, again, I think you're right overall. I was just raising this issue to spark discussion over what value people place on Lowry as it relates to the Rockets' cap situation.
No, it is not possible. All of a team's free agents count against the team's salary cap in an amount called a "cap hold". In Luis's case, because he is a non-first rounder free agent who made below the league's average salary, his cap hold is equal to 200% of his 2009-10 salary, or about $6.77M. In Kyle's case, becuase he is coming off a first round scale salary contract and made less than the league's average salary, his cap hold is equal to 300% of his 2009-10 salary, or about $6.1M. (The reason cap holds are so high for first rounders is to avoid situations where teams dump veterans in favor of all young lottery picks, then wait for everyone to hit free agency and sign some outside free agent to a max contract before re-signing the kiddies. This is why Portland had to use its cap room THIS summer instead of waiting for Roy and Aldridge to hit free agency next summer.) Bottom line: Luis and Kyle will count for a total of about $12.87M against the Rockets' total team salary and will severely limit the team's cap room until they are either (a) re-signed, at which point their new salary will count against the cap or (b) renounced, at which point they will be unrestricted free agents and the Rockets will lose any Bird rights to them (i.e., they cannot later re-sign them and go over the salary cap). Hope that helps.
