De Profundis

Some thoughts on basketball philosophy, team building philosophy, and our Houston Rockets:

These past few games with Lowry being out have got me thinking about the position the Rockets find themselves in. We have a lot of young role players, and few guys who've proven to be a bit more than that. But together, they've building chemistry and synergy.

So, what do the Rockets lack? Obviously, the Rockets have had major difficulty with defensive rebounding. In the past few games, our best lineup has been the smaller lineup of Dragic, Lee, Budinger, Parsons, and either Scola or Patterson. Even though the lineup is a pretty good defensive unit, they have trouble getting the board after playing good defense. However, what I notice the most about that lineup is the redundancy in position and role. Our point guard play is excellent. Dragic matches up pretty well with the great point guards in this league, and the same can be said of Lowry. And when Lowry is overmatched, as was the case with Chris Paul in the most recent game against the Clippers, Lowry can hold his own against bigger off-ball guards while Lee can play defense on the point guard. Budinger has come into a sort of 6th man role coming off the bench. He's looking to score, and playing with hustle on the offensive glass and defensive intensity. Parsons is growing into his role in the starting lineup. He plays great defense, and causes opponents a lot of problems with his length. And on offense, he's proven himself to be a capable passer who can use his length to score. Plus, he still has the potential to improve, particularly at shooting the ball. The same high praise can be shined on Courtney Lee. He should be a starter. He plays well on both ends of the court, and offers a lot of flexibility in his role on the team. He can play defense, he can score in the offense, and occasionally take his man one on one. Daryl Morey has truly put together a great group of young players. And that isn't even considering the other young role players and unproven talent Morey has assembled. His success in the draft, especially in the second round, is a testiment to his team building philosophy and focus on developing players that are often undervalued by other teams. Our players overseas, Sergio Lllul and Donatas Motiejuntas, are excellent examples here, and Patrick Patterson, Jordan Hill, Marcus Morris and Johnny Flynn (yes, Johnny Flynn) are looking to have the potential to be servicible bench players, and perhaps more with experience.

But most of all, the excellent financial position, flexibility, and willingness to take risks are this teams greatest asset. We could very easily clear cap space to make a stong run at free agency. We have role players who we could easily trade for non-guaranteed contracts in the second round, a general manager who is able to capitalize on second round picks, and an owner that wouldn't hesitate to shell out cash on to buy picks. Our excellent player development makes us an attractive trade partner for other teams looking for players who can play a certain role on their team. We could trade Dragic to a team that needs better point guard play to supplement an already good team (like the Lakers). We can trade Lee to a contender who needs help in the backcourt (like the Bulls). Or we could trade Budinger to a team who needs a boost off the bench (like Atlanta, or Miami, or the Lakers). These are just a few examples.

So, how do we become a contender? We need to take some risks, look to make moves that will allow some of our young unproven players to play more (even if the result is just a pick in the upcoming draft), and we need to do what we can to vault ourselves into contention. Dwight Howard is an excellent example. Rumors are that we are the most likely team to seek a "rental" trade for Howard. We could give up Lowry, Martin, Scola, and some of our young talent, or expiring 2009 draft contracts, and still be an in an excellent position to make a run in the playoffs and improve in the offseason and into the next season. This particular example is very risky. Howard could choose to leave in free agency, a move that most people think will occur. But if you dropped a guy like Howard into the lineup, suddenly our best lineup, the small lineup, becomes a solid starting lineup. If Orlando doesn't want Scola, we have Dragic, Lee, Parsons, Scola, and Howard. If they take him, we'd still be solid with Patterson, or Hill spacing the floor and playing good defense with Howard in the frontcourt. We'd have an excellent defensive team, with excellent backcourt play, an excellent defensive frontcourt and post presense, and a lengthy glue guy in Parsons. Plus, we would have serious potential to make the moves that need to be made to improve the team in the offseason. We would still have the ability to clear more cap space and make moves in free agency. Whether Morey does this by letting 09'er contracts to expire or by trading some of our young talent for future draft picks, we're in an excellent position to improve. Even the loss of Lowry in this risky trade isn't crippling. We have a potentially excellent point guard in Sergio Llull that we could bring over to the NBA if we really wanted to, and we have an excellent young center/power-forward that can space the floor next to Howard or use his athleticism to get to the cup in Motiejuntas. And don't forget, he's a 7-footer. They just need the opportunity. And that isn't even considering the flexibility that players like Budinger, Patterson, and Hill bring off the bench, and our general manager's capacity to bring in good role players to fit along side a solid core of special players. In my mind, the opportunity we have to trade for a player like Howard is worth the potential risk. If it pays off, we could make a strong playoff push in the Western Conference. We'd be a matchup nightmare in the playoffs. Oklahoma City would dread being matched up against us in the first round. And the same goes for every other team in the west. We would be such a dangerous team. And we would be able to make a strong argument to Howard that we'd be in position to win immediately. We could make a strong run at Deron Williams to pair up with Dwight Howard, and even convince Courtney Lee to make another championship run with his friend Howard. Of course, this is all hypothetical, but I don't think its farfetched at all to say that we'd have the capacity to build a winning team around Howard right now.

And if the risk doesn't payoff. We aren't crippled. We'd still have a solid lineup of young players with potential, and we could look to build in the draft, as we've been doing, while making good management decisions to keep rotating in new young unproven players. If we stand pat, we aren't improving. Morey's team building philosophy is paying dividends, and the situation we find ourselves in right now with regard to our young player development, our openness to making moves in free agency and as a trade partner to other teams throughout the league is proof.

 

Haters! The whole lot of you!

I'd have wrote it anyway. Just sharing my thoughts.