Pitching health has nothing to do with "luck"... its an expected risk based on how arms are used now to the point that teams have calculated that into their team-planning and contract offerings. And even when a pitcher is "healthy"... they're going to be prone for bad days or bad weeks (if the league is adjusting) and are constant works in progress due to the scouting reports. Or until Bregman tells them to ditch a certain pitch, etc.
Then how do you explain teams like the Mariners having rotations go entire seasons basically unscathed ( before this year) If its not luck, what is it?
When things are as complicated without a clear solution to yield positive results as pitcher health, a lot of it is luck. Teams have pitchers pitch the way do hoping for luck in regards to health. There are some strategies to mitigate it, but overall, teams still wait until the trade deadline to trade for whoever is healthy.
Its the nature of the job. This year its catching up with them. The Astros have had good years too. 2018 was one of the best.. till it wasn't (in the playoffs....Lance had already torn his UCL, but still pitched... and Morton was being asked to retire). The emphasis on max effort at all times and all things spin related... combined with pitch clock lack of recovery... makes this as much a part of the game as any football injury.
Luck... nature of the job as currently being cultivated... you can label it however you want. The human arm was never meant to throw overhand, let alone with max spin or consistently 95+ mph. Humans haven't evolved to be able to "build up to this" (minus PED usage). If they could go back to nursing arms with the expectation that they'd be throwing 300 innings at a fraction of the strain, I'm sure they would.... but then again, arms/shoulders broke down then as well, but before the current recon techniques most of those injuries were career enders (hence they had no choice but to conserve).
Still don't see how its not luck. Sure, everyone knows its a potential result but some pitchers get hurt and some don't. Bad luck or good luck.
Fine... its just the genetically blessed arms that don't get hurt (but do eventually). There's no way to test for that, however... so one either expects pitching reinforcement to always be a part of the game, or you just pray. You still have guys throwing their max effort/stuff as the most effective way of generating outs... and if theres an injury, there's an injury. I have bought into the "finite arm life" theory that more and more are seeing. The arm is only capable of a limited shelf-life of elite-level pitching. Whenever a team feels fit to unleash that (presuming they have the raw 'stuff' with command already) will drive promotions and big league usage.
This is also fairly analogous to a lot of anecdotal anomalies that does not rule out the causation that pitching is a health hazard. Lots like to bring up how some people can smoke their whole lives, literally be on oxygen in their 90's... and are still smoking away. Others die of cancer in their 50's after a fraction of that time smoking. I'm not going to say the difference between those two outcomes is simply "luck".
I'm thinking you're overvaluing things. Blubaugh/Leon and either Treadwell or Cole. Lux is a good player, but not an elite player.
Three guys I would not mind losing at all. That usually means you could not get a plug nickle for them. Incidentally what was once a plug nickle is currently worth about 7.25 cents.
Hope has only been drafted 2x in baseball. He only lasted 1/3 of an inning. The other Hope ended with one career win and a 5.99 era. In the NBA, Hope was drafted once in 1950 by the Knicks. It never played. Not even one minute.
Me theory on pitching is you Prefontaine it. Get 'em to the majors early and let 'em throw. No pitch counts. No worries. Whatever happens-happens. The laundry list of injured pitchers is long. No doubt. They are failing everywhere. But the limitations have not helped. Good idea. No results to show it works. So you pay them well, and respect the rotation, but let them run and let them breathe. Most pitchers want that. For the Pitchers that want to extend their careers doing less, I'm ok with it, they have that right, so you work with 'em on how that can fit in with a different philosophy. If all the pitchers want less work, then the league has to act, but that comes with less pay. But I think most pitchers want to be out there longer and push tin.
This team is starting to grow on me. Didn’t know what their identity was early on, but they’re proving to be a tough, resilient, and clutch group.
