I see from your explanation why it SHOULD matter. But if it doesn't show up in the results, I can only conclude it didn't matter. Now you might see if there is any carry over to subsequent batters.
CFM is and always will be a favorite of mine. I dont know if he has anything left, but if he just had mechanical flaws and has corrected them then sign me up. He stiil appears to have the velo.
His velo is still there. I’m all in on adding CFM if Baltimore isn’t asking for much in the way of prospects.
If Baltimore ate all but ~$4M of his contract, I’d be willing to give up any 2 prospects outside Houston’s top 25. Kouba and Dombroski would be fine. If I were Elias I would ask for Alex Santos and Alimber Santa.
If the Orioles don't pay at least $4.6M of his salary then it puts the team over the CBT. And even then it leaves nothing for the trade deadline. The only way I see that working is Morton and O'Hearn + $2-3M for Javier with prospects added whichever direction is needed. Morton and O'Hearn are owed about $11.4M Javier is owed about $7.9M for 2024. Of course Javier's health is a big roadblock. Baltimore would need to be happy with his medicals. Also, Javier's AAV is $12.8M for the Astros but would be $18.4M if traded. It also would go up about $0.16M each week until the end of the season when it hits $21.0 M. But Javier could be a very good piece in 2026 and 2027 for them.
What does Lux make per year? You trade for Lux and send out a guy like Chas plus prospects for Lux so that the money matches up and the Reds get the prospects they want.
I like Lux for this team. He is making $3.325M. It would cost the Astros just over $2M. But he has another year of control. Considering that and his low arbitration numbers, the prospect cost would be high.
You speak with certainty about where they are relative to the CBT and the publicly available numbers are not at all certain. I think they are closer to $10M under and potentially as much as $12m.
You are certainly right that it is only an estimate until the season is over. I use Cot's Contracts which is part of Baseball Prospectus. They estimate them $4.676M under. Spotrac estimates they are $3.911M under. Fangraphs rounds to the nearest $1M and estimates them $5M under. But I like your estimates better.
What type of prospect cost? If not too high I would do a deal like this. Blugbaugh, Whitcomb/Chas for Lux, this should matchup well prospect and salary wise.
Not sure, but I doubt Chas interests them. Baed on Astros system, I'm thinking 2 of Astros top 5-8 prosoects that are MLB ready or very close + a lottery ticket. Matthews, Blubaugh, and Leon?
The pitching staff of this team has been quite impressive (band-aids and all). I never want to jump the gun but I wonder how many pitchers we have that can turn into sold starters in a year or two, where we don't have to raid and overpay the free agency pool. That would keep this window open while the offense resets.
It was just 2 years ago that Urquidy/Javier/Garcia had all emerged as bonafide starters that were directly going to keep the window open with Framber.... and this is before Brown's emergence and Arrighetti's promotion. In other words, while looking ahead is always a fun exercise... when it comes to pitching, its essentially useless given how much turnover and unpredictability there truly is in this field. Hell, everybody was thinking we had too much pitching going into "this" season, or even as of 1 month ago when LMJ was coming back and before Blanco got injured.
I'm guilty of thinking the Astros finally had enough starting pitching. Brown, Framber, Arrighetti, Blanco, and Wesneski on opening day. Gusto having a good during and actually warning a start last year. Lance and Luis Garcia supposedly almost ready and should join the rotation before June. Gordon being added to the 40 man and Blubaugh looking like a man in AAA. Javier reportedly projected to return by August. That's 8 healthy guys and 3 more proven arms on the way for reimbursements. Who could have guessed bad injury luck would hit for a 3rd straight year. Arrighetti, Wesneski, and Blanco all get hurt and miss substantial time. Garcia has a setback and is delayed (indefinitely?). That's 4 major injury occurrences. 2024: Verlander, Javier, and France plus McCullers, Gracia, and Urquidy setbacks. 2023: McCullers, Garcia, and Urquidy. Isn't luck supposed to even out over time?
