Anyone can shine in SL if the team decides to showcase them. I personally don't think Nolan Smith or Damian Lillard will be very good NBA players, perhaps both ideally suited to be backups, but Portland can easily give them 30pts if they want. This year I didn't watch enough games, but I got the feeling the emphasis was being placed on D-Nuts and Lamb, with the secondary emphasis on Morris and White. It is unusual however to spread the ball around as much as we did. After the first two games it seemed clear that Morris would not be breaking out this summer (or any summer), and then the ball really got distributed to other guys like Machado and Dragic. To me, the fact that Jones came in with no expectations or spotlight granted to him speaks a lot about his ability to come in and produce. He's truly underrated still.
I think evaluating a rookie before their first season is a lot like evaluating a prospect preparing for the first year in the big leagues. One set of spring training stats can be very misleading, be it a player who suddenly "breaks out" or a player who falls off the face of the planet. As a rabid fantasy baseball player in an uber-deep contract-based league, though, there are tricks to help read what's going on. Specifically... 1 - Look at the big picture. Does the Spring fit with the big picture? If a player has a high average, but it's coming on fluky plays you may discount it. On the other hand, if a prospect raises his average because what used to be flyouts to the warning track are now home runs (similar FB/GB ratio with increase in HR), it makes more sense. That's where I think there is extra value in looking at success in college/abroad. It's not like the success these guys have had is unexpected or abnormal for them. There's nothing that sticks out that says "red flag." 2 - Look at the competition. In terms of Spring Training, a batter is going to look better against a High-A pitcher who is just getting experience before being sent down than against a Triple A spec who is fighting for a spot in the big league rotation. The batter may have an even better at bat against a dominant vetran who has decided to work on a new pitch and has no desire to mix things up. Having not seen the SL games, and not knowing exactly who was played, I can't comment on this. Were we playing true scrubs? Any elite prospects? Any rehabbing vets? 3 - Look at the trends. In other words, does a batter improve over the course of Spring Training? Does a pitcher see his secondary pitches go from average to legitimate? Does a pitcher start failing because the opposing teams have seen him once or twice? How a prospect grows/weakens over Spring Training is likely a microcosm for the season as a whole. It looked to me like our guys showed growth over the course of the SL, however short it may be. Any thoughts on this? 4 - Failure is more damning than success is annointing. If a prospect comes out and falls on his face in Spring Training, you know he, at the very least, needs some more time in the minors. If a prospect tears the cover off the ball, he may not be a Rookie of the Year candidate, but at least you know he didn't fail, right? I suspect the best thing to take away from the SL performances of our rooks is that they didn't suck. So, here's how I see it, in terms of importance. 1 - They didn't suck, so it's less likely they'll be busts. 2 - They showed solid performances in line with their careers. 3 - They showed improvement and consistency over the course of the 5 games. Plus, someone in the know may add that they did all this against good competition. (Hopefully they didn't do it against complete scrubs.) Maybe common sense and I should shut up, but I figured I'd throw it all out there. That's how I'd analyze my prospects in Spring Training, and it seems pretty analagous.
I think the summer league will have minimal effect on increasing or decreasing the rookies value. For comparison sake we can look at the 2008 summer league points leaders and how few of them are more than average players at best, much less stars: 1) Jerryd Bayless (POR) 29.8 ppg 4.8 REB 2) Donte Greene (HOU) 22.6 ppg 3.6 REB 3) Quincy Douby (SAC) 22.3 ppg 2.8 Steals 4) Alando Tucker (PHX) 21.6 ppg 4 REB 5) Anthony Randolph (GSW) 20.8 ppg 7.8 REB ... 8) Eric Gordon (LAC) 19 ppg 5.5 REB 16) Kevin Love (MIN) 18 ppg 13.5 REB 20) Aaron Brooks (HOU) 16.8 ppg 7 Ast 23) Maarty Leunen (HOU) 16 ppg 4.8 AST 26) Ramon Sessions (MIL) 15.3 ppg 5.3 AST 29) Arron Afflalo (DET) 15 ppg 3.8 REB 57) Mike Conley (MEM) 11 ppg 3 AST 73) Joey Dorsey (HOU) 10 ppg 9 REB 76) Corey Brewer (MIN) 9.8 ppg 99) George Hill (SAS) 8 ppg 7 REB 111) DeAndre Jordan (LAC) 7.4 ppg 7.2 REB Some of the players in the summer league no doubt will turn into all star players and the Rocket's players could be among them. If you had high expectations for these guys prior to summer league, then there is no reason to not continue holding that hope going into the season. But if you have completely changed your mind on the rookies future potential from expecting a mediocre role player type impact pick, to expecting a future hall of famer or all star, based on summer league then you need to temper your expectations some.
Since scoring does not seem to be a good indicator of potential success, I wonder if there is some other stat that might. If I had the time I'd like to look at the who was tops in some other categories during SL such as rebounding, assists, steals, etc and see how they did in the regular season.
Not consistently. High averages in those stats MIGHT mean you are a star, Kevin Love topped the summer league in rebounding while averaging a solid 18 ppg that year. The assist leaders that year were 1) Ramon Sessions 2) Aaron Brooks 3) Bobby Brown (NOH) 4) CJ Watson 5) John Lucas III. Joey Dorsey averaged 14.8 rebounds per game for the Rockets one summer and it hasn't translated. You also have to look at the 10 foul limit in summer league and how it changes things. Putting up great numbers but collecting 5+ fouls distorts things, because in a real game once you had an early 3 fouls you would be on the bench, and obviously if you had 5 or more you would have fouled out. Guards also have more opportunities to score consistently because they don't rely on anyone passing them the ball. Much like how it is rare that centers get MVP at all star games. A great passing summer league PG could make an average big man look good, and a poor PG could make a great big man put up average numbers. The teams don't all play each other even once, so perhaps one player played against good summer league opponents and had lower averages, and another played against terrible competition and excelled. Many 2nd year players only play one or two games like Parsons did, so did you play the opponent when they were playing their second year pros, or when they were playing players that probably won't even make the roster? Even struggling in the summer league doesn't necessarily mean anything. Lebron had some great games, but also some problems shooting 8-30 for a combined 23 points and 10 turn overs in his last two summer league games. Dwight Howard averaged 19 pts and 7.5 rebounds which is pretty close to the 18.4 pts and 8.4 rebounds Ike Diogu (GSW) averaged the same year. Chris Paul averaged 11.8 points and 5.5 assists that same summer, while Sebastian Telfair was the assist leader at 6 per game. It's obviously better to do well than to be terrible, but trying to project what it all means once the real games start is about the same as watching preseason and seeing Kelvin Cato dominate and signing him to a 6 year 42 million dollar contract. Keeping in mind that back then the salary cap was set at $30 million compared to $70 million this coming season.
Hey, at least John Lucas is still in the league, and is not that bad of a backup point guard off the bench.
