Question for the more hard core baseball guys... When I hear discussion about Keuchel, I tend to hear things like..."He can be a solid end of the rotation pitcher". My question is, why cant he be a #1 or #2? He's clearly been excellent. I know it's a small sample size and hitters can eventually adjust to him...but by the same token, he's only 26 and can still improve. I understand he might not have the repertoire of pitches that could make him a solid top of the rotation guy, but still...a current 2.55 ERA is phenomenal (5th in the AL). Anything resembling a 3.00 in the AL is top of the order numbers.
Are people still saying that? I think the recent fangraphs article highlighted that changes to his repertoire in the last 12-18 months have resulted in a different style of pitching that could result in what you're saying--a #1/2 type guy potentially.
Keuchel is a C prospect. The fact that he is performing like a B+ prospect, does not change the fact that he is a C prospect. BTW Altuve is too short to be an everyday second baseman. The scouts have spoken.
You answered your own question. He doesn't have raw "stuff" that screams high end starter and until recently did not have the successful track record. Having said that, he has the type of advanced numbers that don't scream outlier this season and he completely changed his off speed stuff. There are some guys that come out of nowhere and have long term success, but not many. Having said that I think he has a legit chance to be a 2-3... This isn't Cossart last year, he hasn't been "lucky", he has been good and hitters haven't hit his off speed stuff well at all.
Actually he does. He has arguably the best command in history of baseball. But don't you wonder why we have to go back to Greg Maddux to find comps for pitchers with below average speed? It's because what he does is really hard if not nearly impossible to replicate. Can Keuchel maintain his exceptional command and continue inducing ground balls at an elite rate? Perhaps. But if he does, he'll become more the exception than the rule in regards to how to become a starting pitcher in the MLB.
It's all about consistency, yes, but he's had good consistency this season, and it's not crazy to think he can continue this. Proud that Dallas Keuchel is an Astro right now.
We don't have to go back to Maddux. The list of LHP's that have been very good throwing in the 89-91 isn't that short.
Just off the top of my head Barry Zito, Mark Buehrle, Jamie Moyer come to mind. I'm sure I could find others. True, using control and craftiness is the harder way to go, but by no means unheard of.
Buehrle and Moyer weren't #1-type starters though. They were middle of the rotation guys. Barry Zito really only was a #1 type for a couple of years.
Mark Buehrle started opening day 9 times for chicago. Jamie Moyer started opening day 4 times for seattle. You don't have to be Pedro Martinez or Randy Johnson to still be a really good pitcher and rotation anchor.
Sure - because they were consistent anchors in fairly weak but deep rotations. Beuhrle has had an ERA below 3.50 twice in his 13 year career so far. He has a career ERA of 3.81. If that's what people are projecting for Keuchel, then I don't think that's unreasonable or that anyone would argue with that. But that doesn't seem to be what people here are thinking when they are saying #1 or #2 starter.
Very nice. Liked the CG yesterday too... <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>2 AL starting P have < 0.99 WHIP:Masahiro Tanaka & Dallas Keuchel. Each signed contracts in offseason. Tanaka:$155 million. Keuchel:$508,700</p>— AdamWexlerCSN (@awexler) <a href="https://twitter.com/awexler/statuses/470905465799331840">May 26, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Young players for their first six years are team controlled, not on contract, although the team can sign them to a contract is they want. First 3 years they make the league minimum, second 3 years they can go to arbitration, but will never hit the open market. Keuchel won't hit free agency until 2019 :grin:
Beuhrle's career ERA+ is 119, and only posted 1 season below 100. That is a #2 starter. First Ballot HOFer Tom Glavine had a career ERA+ of 118.
