Dallas Keuchel posted 7.2 K/9 last season, and 8.0 this season, why exactly would they expect his K rate to fall off ? These projections can never predict improvement, which Keuchel has clearly shown, and why I hate them. Judging by these "updated" projections, they basically expect Keuchel become the pitcher they expected him to be come hail or high water.
I'd say the projections are a substantial change, but still not enough to judge the drastic change Keuchel has made. They went from projecting him as a reliever to a starter which normally would cause K/9 to go down and BB/9 to go up. The big change in Keuchel is the strikeout number which I think will probably be in the 7-8 K/9 range. I think the increase in K/9 will help him keep the BB/9 a little lower. Stats will have a hard time tracking a true drastic improvement that we are seeing in Keuchel. He's the only reason I will watch an Astros game on the West Coast at the moment. Seeing swings and misses on his slider reminds me of the swing and misses on Kile's curve ball.
Wow, that's unfortunate because I thought he was hailed as the face of the resurrection and return to prominence in Astros basball. If Appel doesn't pan out, do you think the 'Stros have done enough - this June draft notwithstanding - in past drafts to be competitive within the next year or 2? Thanks.
Keuchel has some unsustainable peripheral stats which suggest he can't maintain his current pace (particularly BAA w/ RISP). I think an ERA in the mid-to-upper 3's is a reasonable expectation.
Odd, I see things like 6 of the 8 runners he left for the bullpen have scored. A 75% IS/R% is high even for the Astros. I expect he'll probably end up above 3 in ERA, but I don't see him over 3.5. Right now, he's given up more runs than his strikeout rate, his walk rate, and his home run rate would indicate.
It's weird cuz he definitely has some peripherals that suggest regression but several of the other advanced stats suggest his numbers are spot on with his pitching. His ERA lines up with his FIP and xFIP. His BABIP is .290 which is also reasonable. Basically I wouldn't be surprised if his season end ERA was somewhere between 2.75-3.50. His numbers don't scream regression like Cosart 2013.
I wouldn't say Appel was hailed as the face of the resurrection. I'd put that title on Kid Correa if anyone but this isn't a Lebron scenario. To answer your question, I'd say possibly. The team has a pretty solid foundation right now. Subtract three crappy position players (Carter, Krauss, Presly), replace them with three >2.0 WAR players and factor in a league average bullpen then it becomes entirely reasonable to envisage a high 70's/low 80's win team. Mind you that's still a .500 team but in 2 more seasons its doable.
Thank you! This is all I was trying to say (poorly). The guy did have surgery and missed spring training. Patience. Remember when Oswalt was going to be the ace, with Wade Miller, Carlos Hernandez, Tim Redding and Wilfredo Rodriguez rounding out the rotation for the next decade? Yeah, I remember that.
Yup. But we should have seen Miller's demise coming, what with his jerky delivery and his refusal to make the adjustments recommended by the coaches.
He was also "averaging" 95mph. Anyone calling him a bust at this point is clueless. Dude had surgery, he's getting used to pitching every 4 days instead of 7, no real spring training, etc. Relax breh's.
Pretty sure nobody is calling him a bust. People are currently concerned about his rocky initiation into pro ball. Nothing more, nothing less. Once he starts showing something, the concerns will be alleviated.
Most of us reasonable baseball fans aren't calling him a bust. But plenty of the casuals see the first overall pick struggling in the minors and freak out. I've seen more than a few posts about how terrible Appel is. A lot of them don't even realize that the # 1 overall pick has to go through the minors. I was talking with a friend at work about how we had the #1 pick 2 years running, when I told them they hadn't gotten out of the minors, he assumed they must suck. If the Astros do get better, the garmification of the Astros board is only gonna get worse.
Being an Astros sub-forum inside a Rockets forum has prevented a lot of garmification. That said, I wonder if the Twins forums are going on meltdown after Buxton re-injured his wrist.
Also, it didn't seem like the Texans forum got too garmish with their success. Gotta figure it will even be less so with the Stros.
Anyone calling him a "bust" is either ignorant or be dramatic. I think the Astros would like his progression to have been a little more smooth thus far, especially compared to Kris Bryant. Still he is arguably the Astros second best prospect. Another thing... I hear people rave about the Cubs system and others... Well they do have high upside bats, but this game is about pitching, and the Astros have pitching.
