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D&D Coronavirus thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by NewRoxFan, Feb 23, 2020.

  1. txtony

    txtony Member

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    You might not know it but Gates have been in the health business for 50 years. Rogan? He's been spouting off as an entertainer longer.
     
    adoo likes this.
  2. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Houston Knicks fan
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  3. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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  4. adoo

    adoo Member

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    #6504 adoo, May 2, 2021
    Last edited: May 2, 2021
    No Worries likes this.
  5. adoo

    adoo Member

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    FranchiseBlade likes this.
  6. txtony

    txtony Member

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    Yes, different approaches have similar results, one of the things about Covid in the US. But this tweet is stupidity inaccurate and contribute to wrong understanding. Ca has not been locked down for a year while FL and TX still have restrictions.
     
    TheRealist137 likes this.
  7. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    If you believe the India undercount percentage on new cases is accurate then there are about 5-10 million cases a day.
     
    saitou likes this.
  8. NotInMyHouse

    NotInMyHouse Contributing Member

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  9. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    Gavin Newsome saved thousands of people by not being like Abbott or DeSantis.
     
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  10. adoo

    adoo Member

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    true.

    but he had also created an optic that paints him as a hypocrite,

    after issuing the lockdown order and masking mandate.
    he was caught maskless, attending a birthday party (attended by ~20) in a fancy restaurant (supposed to be shut down) in the Napa Valley​
     
    NotInMyHouse likes this.
  11. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Insider Newsletter™ 2X Diamond Member

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    Cali had some delays in their vaccinations because they put in who got served first and the logistics took some time to play out. On the bright side, at risk people were able to get a higher percent vaccinated. I won't get my second shot until next week.

    I don't think they did any of that in TX or FL. More like a first come first served come and git it jamboree. Less delays but a whole lot less certainty over granny and at risk fatties.

    Speaking of uncertain groups, just read a wapo article about police not vaccinating or even reporting their numbers. Starting to cause headaches as openings escalate...
     
  12. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Hope is on the horizon in the NBA draft.
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    What a jerk he is.

    DeSantis signs bill banning ‘vaccine passports,’ order canceling local COVID rules


    DeSantis had already unilaterally banned even private businesses from requiring proof of vaccination to enter. The law banning vaccine passports, effective July 1, entails a $5,000 fine any time a business or school requires proof of vaccination for entry.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article251123044.html
     
  13. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton
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    Apropos of nothing, anecdotes:
    Traveled by commercial airline to and from TX to see my parents outside of Austin. Packed flight in each direction, with mask wearing, but ridiculous that the airline said they were promoting "safety" by handing out little wipes. Just a joke. On each flight they had snacks and drinks, where everybody would lower their masks, chow down and (in the case of some UT frat girls) talk loudly. So glad I had my vaccine.

    Talked with my parents' doctors on this visit, and they mentioned they're still seeing whole families just wrecked by the virus.

    Got my mom some take-out mexican food that she loves but doesn't go get herself. Went into the restaurant and it was packed, shoulder-to-shoulder, poorly ventilated, with no masks or anything. Yikes. Good luck to the restaurant employees if they aren't vaccinated. In general, the economically well-to-do side of town had people wearing masks indoors and the less-well-off side did not. Very striking.

    Overall, glad I had my vaccine and felt comfortable because of that, and b/c parents vaccinated too of course.

    Would think we might eventually get an uptick, but maybe not. Just keeping fingers crossed against a super variant.
     
    #6513 B-Bob, May 3, 2021
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
  14. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Sorry to go off topic but Gavin Newsome has some incredible hair -- total GLG.
     
    B-Bob likes this.
  15. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Insider Newsletter™ 2X Diamond Member

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    Took me a while to understand the headline because it seemed like vaccinations were the easiest requirement for herd immunity. It was a message pounded into our heads for a good year.

    With dominant strains mutating and people not wanting to get vaccinated, the vaccines more or less have an "expiration date".

    What they should find out is how effective existing vaccines are to reduce the crazy hospitalizations that happened early last year. I'm assuming vaccines make corona less novel to our immune system, but who knows if they all produce the same antigens that the vaccines target...

    btw, as easy as it is to put more blame on antivaxxers, we can't seal off our borders from countries that weren't first in the vaccine queue. Strains from India or Britain were bound to spread sooner or later and we'd have to deal with the same issues. One could argue that the vector of transmission is much larger, but if future strains demolish our current vaccines, the difference in spreading amounts to a few days to a few weeks...

    Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

    ...


    Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of the population. Most experts, including Dr. Fauci, expected that the United States would be able to reach it once vaccines were available.

    But as vaccines were developed and distribution ramped up through the winter and into the spring, estimates of the threshold began to rise. That is because the initial calculations were based on the contagiousness of the original version of the virus. The predominant variant now circulating in the United States, called B.1.1.7 and first identified in Britain, is about 60 percent more transmissible.

    As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again.

    Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

    Though resistance to the vaccines is a main reason the United States is unlikely to reach herd immunity, it is not the only one.

    Herd immunity is often described as a national target. But that is a hazy concept in a country this large.

    “Disease transmission is local,” Dr. Lipsitch noted.

    “If the coverage is 95 percent in the United States as a whole, but 70 percent in some small town, the virus doesn’t care,” he explained. “It will make its way around the small town.”

    How insulated a particular region is from the coronavirus depends on a dizzying array of factors.

    Herd immunity can fluctuate with “population crowding, human behavior, sanitation and all sorts of other things,” said Dr. David M. Morens, a virologist and senior adviser to Dr. Fauci. “The herd immunity for a wealthy neighborhood might be X, then you go into a crowded neighborhood one block away and it’s 10X.”

    Given the degree of movement among regions, a small virus wave in a region with a low vaccination level can easily spill over into an area where a majority of the population is protected.

    At the same time, the connectivity between countries, particularly as travel restrictions ease, emphasizes the urgency of protecting not just Americans but everyone in the world, said Natalie E. Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida in Gainesville. Any variants that arise in the world will eventually reach the United States, she noted.

    Many parts of the world lag far behind the United States on vaccinations. Less than 2 percent of the people in India have been fully vaccinated, for example, and less than 1 percent in South Africa, according to data compiled by The New York Times.

    “We will not achieve herd immunity as a country or a state or even as a city until we have enough immunity in the population as a whole,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, the director of the Covid-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin.

    What the future may hold
    If the herd immunity threshold is not attainable, what matters most is the rate of hospitalizations and deaths after pandemic restrictions are relaxed, experts believe.

    By focusing on vaccinating the most vulnerable, the United States has already brought those numbers down sharply. If the vaccination levels of that group continue to rise, the expectation is that over time the coronavirus may become seasonal, like the flu, and affect mostly the young and healthy.

    “What we want to do at the very least is get to a point where we have just really sporadic little flare-ups,” said Carl Bergstrom, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Washington in Seattle. “That would be a very sensible target in this country where we have an excellent vaccine and the ability to deliver it.”

    Over the long term — a generation or two — the goal is to transition the new coronavirus to become more like its cousins that cause common colds. That would mean the first infection is early in childhood, and subsequent infections are mild because of partial protection, even if immunity wanes.

    Some unknown proportion of people with mild cases may go on to experience debilitating symptoms for weeks or months — a syndrome called “long Covid” — but they are unlikely to overwhelm the health care system.

    “The vast majority of the mortality and of the stress on the health care system comes from people with a few particular conditions, and especially people who are over 60,” Dr. Lipsitch said. “If we can protect those people against severe illness and death, then we will have turned Covid from a society disrupter to a regular infectious disease.”

    If communities maintain vigilant testing and tracking, it may be possible to bring the number of new cases so low that health officials can identify any new introduction of the virus and immediately stifle a potential outbreak, said Bary Pradelski, an economist at the National Center for Scientific Research in Grenoble, France. He and his colleagues described this strategy in a paper published on Thursday in the scientific journal The Lancet.

    “Eradication is, I think, impossible at this stage,” Dr. Pradelski said. “But you want local elimination.”

    Vaccination is still the key
    The endpoint has changed, but the most pressing challenge remains the same: persuading as many people as possible to get the shot.

    Reaching a high level of immunity in the population “is not like winning a race,” Dr. Lipsitch said. “You have to then feed it. You have to keep vaccinating to stay above that threshold.”

    Skepticism about the vaccines among many Americans and lack of access in some groups — homeless populations, migrant workers or some communities of color — make it a challenge to achieve that goal. Vaccine mandates would only make that stance worse, some experts believe.

    A better approach would be for a trusted figure to address the root cause of the hesitancy — fear, mistrust, misconceptions, ease of access or a desire for more information, said Mary Politi, an expert in health decision making and health communication at Washington University in St. Louis.

    People often need to see others in their social circle embracing something before they are willing to try it, Dr. Politi said. Emphasizing the benefits of vaccination to their lives, like seeing a family member or sending their children to school, might be more motivating than the nebulous idea of herd immunity.

    “That would resonate with people more than this somewhat elusive concept that experts are still trying to figure out,” she added.

    Though children spread the virus less efficiently than adults do, the experts all agreed that vaccinating children would also be important for keeping the number of Covid cases low. In the long term, the public health system will also need to account for babies, and for children and adults who age into a group with higher risk.

    Unnerving scenarios remain on the path to this long-term vision.

    Over time, if not enough people are protected, highly contagious variants may develop that can break through vaccine protection, land people in the hospital and put them at risk of death.

    “That’s the nightmare scenario,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University.

    How frequent and how severe those breakthrough infections are have the potential to determine whether the United States can keep hospitalizations and deaths low or if the country will find itself in a “mad scramble” every couple of years, he said.

    “I think we’re going to be looking over our shoulders — or at least public health officials and infectious disease epidemiologists are going to be looking over their shoulders going: ‘All right, the variants out there — what are they doing? What are they capable of?” he said. “Maybe the general public can go back to not worrying about it so much, but we will have to.”
     
  16. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  17. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member

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    Yep. We're going to be living with COVID in some form for a long time now.
     
  18. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Houston Knicks fan
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    New Jersey leading the nation in vaccination incentives

     
  19. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Saving*
     
  20. JumpMan

    JumpMan Contributing Member
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    Putting this here.



    According to Dennis Schroeder, he and LeBron are the only Lakers not to get the vaccine. That's from the interview Nichols refers to in the video. Curiously, Nichols does not mention Schroeder stating that LeBron also hasn't gotten the vaccine.

    In the video, AD talks about why it's important that he got it and that most of his teammates got it. Is that going to direct any questions to LeBron? Did he slyly put that pressure on LeBron? Nichols and Ramona definitely put serious pressure on players to get it and shame those who are choosing not to.

    I think LeBron is in a tough place on this one because I believe he considers himself a voice of the people and a lot of the people do not trust the vaccine. I wonder if he thinks that him getting and especially publicizing and promoting the vaccine will cause him to lose some credibility with a certain faccion of his fan base. On the other hand, he has pressure from the liberal media to get the vaccine. I'm fascinated by this.
     

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