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D&D Coronavirus thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by NewRoxFan, Feb 23, 2020.

  1. jchu14

    jchu14 Contributing Member

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    I think it can be explained by the time lag from diagnosis to death and the upward and the downward slope of the infection. You can't divide day of positive test to the same day deaths because of the lag.

    Assuming there is a month long lag from diagnosis to hospitalization to death ( I don't know the actual lag, but I think a month seems reasonable). The people who died on Jan 14th are most likely infected around December 14th. Then the death rate is 310 deaths / 14742 (7d avg case of 12/14) = 2.1%. The people who died in March 7 are probably infected around Feb 7 which is 214/14868 = 1.4%.

    CFR with properly shifted time lag should be gradually decreasing as the most vulnerable population gets vaccinated so the infected population is getting younger and healthier, and as doctors get better at treatment.

    The numbers I am paying most attention to is the positivity rate and new hospitalization observed by TMC. https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upd...-testing-metrics-across-tmc-hospital-systems/ This data is outside the political system and updated daily. There is not nearly as much noise in the data from public tests.

    The trends are very encouraging and show a gradual but definite decrease in positivity.
     
    deb4rockets, FranchiseBlade and B-Bob like this.
  2. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    A year ago today...

     
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  3. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    He can't tweet anymore...

    [​IMG]
     
    B-Bob and No Worries like this.
  4. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Contributing Member
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    The letterhead should say From Trump's Golf Club and Residence
     
    No Worries likes this.
  5. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  6. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member
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    A reminder that it's been a year since this was declared a pandemic..
     
    DVauthrin, B-Bob and FranchiseBlade like this.
  7. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    A child for his entire life. An unloved child. Sad! (TM)
     
  8. jchu14

    jchu14 Contributing Member

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    Yea. 3/11/20 was the day when the pandemic got real for most Americans. NBA season being cancelled and Tom Hanks announcing that he has covid really hit home how serious the matter was.

    I actually went to the KPop concert at the Rodeo with my wife the day before. Pretty insane to go from a packed concert with tens of thousands of people to things shutting down within a few hours.
     
  9. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member
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    I played a packed gig on 3/14/2020 and was scheduled to play another gig on 3/17/2020. I remember getting criticism from people about playing the 3/14 gig but we went ahead and did it because at that time we still didn't have a shutdown order. We met as a band and decided to cancel the 3/17 show and a few hours after I informed the venue it was taken out of our hands when the state put in a shutdown order.
     
  10. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  11. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    kinda bizarre in that he’s taking credit for the vaccine, right?
     
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  12. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    As Cases Spread Across U.S. Last Year, Pattern Emerged Suggesting Link Between Governors' Party Affiliation and COVID-19 Case and Death Numbers
    STARTING IN EARLY SUMMER LAST YEAR, ANALYSIS FINDS THAT STATES WITH REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS HAD HIGHER CASE AND DEATH RATES

    https://www.jhsph.edu/news/news-rel...tion-and-covid-19-case-and-death-numbers.html
     
  13. Amiga

    Amiga 10 years ago...
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    Welcome back, competency and normalcy.

     
  14. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking
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    Lulz, Mail-in Biden trying to take credit for Trump's vaccine. Politicians truly have no shame.
     
  15. adoo

    adoo Member

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    traitor George needs to stop lying.

    Trump’s Suggested That Disinfectants Could Be Used to Treat Coronavirus
     
  16. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking
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    Since it takes 60 days post-approval for the vaccine to be packaged and sent out, and we are not even 60 days into Mail-in Biden's term... it's plainly obvious to anyone with the ability to do addition that Trump's Administration was responsible for the vaccine development. So go get yo' Trump Shots, boys and girls!
     
  17. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Not to take anything concerning the vaccine development speed away from Trump, but considering that Russia and China also developed vaccines quickly, do you really think another President wouldn't have accomplished similar results?
     
  18. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    Damn dude, you’re on a roll.

    Emergency use authorization for Moderna was issued on 12/18/20. Pfizer was a week earlier, on Dec 11. By your “math”, they couldn’t even have sent out the vaccines until mid February 2021, Nevermind actually vaccinate anyone. But unfortunately, that is completely factually inaccurate. I’m not sitting here trying to pick on you, but geez you’re saying a lot of nonsense today.

    One of the few productive things from trumps term was vaccine development. That’s fact. Stick to that fact.

    Your 60 days statement is just dumb, as if people can’t read or do math.
     
    FranchiseBlade likes this.
  19. Buck Turgidson

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    Yep.
     
    B-Bob likes this.
  20. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    i try really hard not to succumb to the feeling that all trumpers are legitimately stupid. But i confess it is difficult. The older I get, the less tolerant I get ... not of opposing or different view, but of plain old stupid.

    I know stupid has always been around. It’s like stupid used to be more self conscious and less eager to share their stupidity with the world. But Trump made stupid so mainstream, it emboldened stupid everywhere to speak up. And so now we have vocal stupid.... rarely right, but never lacking in conviction.
     
    B-Bob, DVauthrin, Ziggy and 4 others like this.

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