1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

D&D Coronavirus thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by NewRoxFan, Feb 23, 2020.

  1. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2002
    Messages:
    54,522
    Likes Received:
    54,458
    A year ago today...

     
    TWS1986 and B-Bob like this.
  2. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Messages:
    72,942
    Likes Received:
    111,140
    "CDC estimated a one-year decline in life expectancy in 2020. Not so — try five days":

    https://www.statnews.com/2021/02/25/cdc-one-year-decline-life-expectancy-really-five-days/

    excerpt:

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made headlines last week when it announced that Covid-19 had reduced the average life expectancy of Americans in 2020 by a full year. The news seemed to starkly illustrate the devastation wrought by our nation’s worst public health crisis in 100 years.

    But there was a problem. The pandemic’s appalling toll could not have reduced life span by nearly that much. My own estimate is that when Covid-19’s ravages in 2020 are averaged across the country’s entire population, we each lost about five days of life.

    The CDC’s mistake? It calculated life expectancy using an assumption that is assuredly wrong, which yielded a statistic that was certain to be misunderstood. That’s exactly the type of misstep the agency can’t afford to make. Not now, not after former President Trump’s relentless attacks on its credibility. Not after his advisers were caught altering and editing the agency’s monthly reports to downplay the pandemic.

    To review: The CDC reported that life expectancy in the U.S. declined by one year in 2020. People understood this to mean that Covid-19 had shaved off a year from how long each of us will live on average. That is, after all, how people tend to think of life expectancy. The New York Times characterized the report as “the first full picture of the pandemic’s effect on American expected life spans.”

    But wait. Analysts estimate that, on average, a death from Covid-19 robs its victim of around 12 years of life. Approximately 400,000 Americans died Covid-19 in 2020, meaning about 4.8 million years of life collectively vanished. Spread that ghastly number across the U.S. population of 330 million and it comes out to 0.014 years of life lost per person. That’s 5.3 days. There were other excess deaths in 2020, so maybe the answer is seven days lost per person.

    No matter how you look at it, the result is a far cry from what the CDC announced.

    It’s not that the agency made a math mistake. I checked the calculations myself, and even went over them with one of the CDC analysts. The error was more problematic in my view: The CDC relied on an assumption it had to know was wrong.

    The CDC’s life expectancy calculations are, in fact, life expectancy projections (the technical term for the measure is period life expectancy). The calculation is based on a crucial assumption: that for the year you are studying (2019 compared to 2020 in this case) the risk of death, in every age group, will stay as it was in that year for everyone born during it.

    So to project the life expectancy of people born in 2020, the CDC assumed that newborns will face the risk of dying that newborns did in 2020. Then when they turn 1, they face the risk of dying that 1-year-olds did in 2020. Then on to them being 2 years old, and so on.

    Locking people into 2020 for their entire life spans, from birth to death, may sound like the plot of a dystopian reboot of “Groundhog Day.” But that’s the calculation. The results: The CDC’s report boils down to a finding that bears no relation to any realistic scenario. Running the 2020 gauntlet for an entire life results in living one year less on average than running that same gauntlet in 2019.
    more at the link

     
    B-Bob likes this.
  3. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2009
    Messages:
    7,746
    Likes Received:
    2,153
  4. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 1999
    Messages:
    36,288
    Likes Received:
    26,639
    Screenshot_20210301-144334_Google.jpg
     
  5. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Messages:
    72,942
    Likes Received:
    111,140
    FranchiseBlade likes this.
  6. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2002
    Messages:
    34,729
    Likes Received:
    33,795
  7. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2007
    Messages:
    54,224
    Likes Received:
    42,227
    A week and a half ago a childhood friend of mine's father died from COVID-19 after having been on a ventilator for a week and a half. He had been a professor at TCU..
     
    deb4rockets likes this.
  8. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2002
    Messages:
    54,522
    Likes Received:
    54,458
  9. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2009
    Messages:
    7,746
    Likes Received:
    2,153
  10. Roc Paint

    Roc Paint Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2001
    Messages:
    22,329
    Likes Received:
    12,438
    Looks like it might be Time to get back into the strip club industry
     
  11. Newlin

    Newlin Member

    Joined:
    May 22, 2015
    Messages:
    8,100
    Likes Received:
    9,866
    This is great news. All Americans should have access to the vaccine much faster because of this.
     
    TWS1986 and DVauthrin like this.
  12. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2002
    Messages:
    54,522
    Likes Received:
    54,458
  13. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2002
    Messages:
    54,522
    Likes Received:
    54,458
  14. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2001
    Messages:
    43,396
    Likes Received:
    25,402
    Your next GOP presidential front runner not named trump...
     
  15. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2002
    Messages:
    54,522
    Likes Received:
    54,458
    The sheer gall of trying to enrich yourself monetarily and politically from a pandemic you have ignored and made worse from your political statements and actions...

     
    No Worries and deb4rockets like this.
  16. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2009
    Messages:
    7,746
    Likes Received:
    2,153
  17. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2013
    Messages:
    19,846
    Likes Received:
    25,776
    My ignore list grows. I just can't find humor or a reasonable debate or discussion with people so blind to truth they can't even see it if it's slapping them right in their face.
     
  18. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2009
    Messages:
    7,746
    Likes Received:
    2,153
  19. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2002
    Messages:
    54,522
    Likes Received:
    54,458
    A year ago today...

     
  20. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2002
    Messages:
    54,522
    Likes Received:
    54,458
    A year ago today...

     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now