D&D Coronavirus thread

Testing is a problem. Texas is ranked almost dead last in testing per cap. Abbot said the WH will give TX more testing capacity and that should be available end of this month or early May. But he’s not being transparent about it - he hasn’t provided any number or estimate.

 

"What they're describing (herd immunity) is how vaccines work. But! We do not have one yet! To achieve herd immunity, we'd need 70% of individuals to become infected with #COVID19. If this happened in a compressed time frame, right now, the results would be catastrophic."

that's exactly what these MAGA maniacs want. they want as much people to be infected and since they truly believe they are in superior health they're the only ones to survive from this

 

All of those people out there pushing for reopening on what is at best impartial information and what is at worst misinformation such as that hospitals are engaged in a mass conspiracy to increase COVID 19 deaths for profit..

 

This belongs to the the GOP: Cosplay in the time of Corona thread

 

One of the CDC criteria (that Texas is ignoring) is that hospitalizations should decline for 14 straight days before re-opening. I've been looking around for Harris county data on that, and not finding anything good, but from news articles I don't think we've strung together even 3 days of decline.

 

Also ignoring decline in cases. On the # of NEW cases, we are hovering at "peak"... maybe a slight downturn, but sustaining there. There are also some hot spots that are still on a doubling every week trend.

On death, we were trending down then we hit a a small uptick and now sustaining.. meaning same death per days over the last week or so.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

 

Is there any place on the web with good, well-presented data on Harris County?

 

http://publichealth.harriscountytx.gov/Resources/2019-Novel-Coronavirus

 

Thanks. I'd found a version of that earlier, but somehow not navigable -- maybe it was the mobile version or something? Anyway, this link is much better, thanks!

But their data is a bit old. Solving that, I followed their site to SETRAC. Looks like they are only 2 days (instead of 2 weeks) behind on showing cases, hospitalizations, etc. From what I see there, I don't see any decline in Harris County admissions.

 

yup weve been saying this since its been on white house site and we peaked as a state last few days ago so clearly not 14 days. We arent ready TO START:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

 

Here's Texas Medical Center's data. It's updated every day.
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/

Unfortunately I I haven't figured out a way to see previous data. But it does show that for TMC, there was a 12% drop in number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients today vs the same day last week.

 

Interesting.. hope so although it hasnt been 14 days.

These guys think it is still 2 days from peak in tx:

covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

With all this confusion we should just all go out

https://pics.me.me/thumb_****-me-right-jonah-hill-****-me-right-gif-52882353.png

 

Article says that the death total should be higher than what's being reported. Says they've found 15,000 deaths that should be marked as Covid-19 from Mar 1-Apr 4

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/health/deaths-spike-covid-spread/index.html

Deaths spiked as Covid-19 spread in March and April, new analysis finds

Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the team found about 15,000 excess deaths from March 1 to April 4. During the same time, states reported 8,000 deaths from Covid-19. "That is close to double," Dan Weinberger, who studies the epidemiology of infectious diseases at Yale, told CNN.​

The team could not show whether the increased deaths were due to coronavirus, Weinberger said. But there are strong indications that they were. For instance, the team also looked at data on doctor visits.

"What we see is that in many states, you see an increase in influenza-like illnesses, and then a week or two later, you see an increase in deaths due to pneumonia and influenza," Weinberger said. "It provides some confirmation that what we are seeing is related to coronavirus."

Plus, in especially hard-hit states such as New York and New Jersey, where coronavirus is known to have spread widely and infected many people, overall deaths were far in excess in what would normally have been expected in March.

"In New York City, this discrepancy was even more stark, with three to four times as many excess all-cause deaths as pneumonia and influenza deaths," the team wrote.

Some states, such as New York, seemed to keep up with the Covid-19 deaths. The state reporting of deaths in the pandemic closely tracked what the Yale team found. But others did not.

"For instance, California had 101 reported deaths due to COVID-19 and 399 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths," the team wrote in a preprint published online in MedRxiv (pronounced Med Archive).

The new coronavirus causes respiratory disease, and deaths would presumably be listed among the regular reports of deaths and illness from pneumonia and influenza. But doctors are increasingly reporting other, sometimes fatal, symptoms from Covid-19, including strokes, kidney failure and heart damage.

Patients already weakened by pre-existing conditions such as diabetes, cancer and heart disease may have had a death listed as being due to one of those causes, rather than coronavirus.

Plus, it's possible that coronavirus lockdowns would have led to a lower-than-average death rate. For instance, if fewer people were driving, traffic deaths could be expected to fall, Weinberger said.

So Weinberger's team looked at both deaths from pneumonia and influenza, and deaths from all causes.

"We decided to look at all deaths from pneumonia, or all deaths overall, and see how those numbers were changing," Weinberger said.

The CDC tracks deaths from pneumonia and influenza by the week, and compares them to a baseline of deaths to keep tabs on the annual epidemic of seasonal flu. Separately, the National Center for Health Statistics, part of the CDC, keeps data on all reported deaths.

The Yale-led team subtracted the expected number of deaths for each week from the total number of deaths that were actually reported, and counted the extra as Covid deaths.

"Many states experienced a notable increase in the proportion of total deaths due to P&I (pneumonia and influenza) starting in mid-March through March 28 compared to what would be expected based on the time of year and influenza activity," the team wrote in their report.
Weinberger's team found evidence that people were dying as states struggled to find out if the virus had even arrived in their regions. "In some states, such as Florida and Georgia, the increase in deaths due to pneumonia and influenza preceded the widespread adoption of testing for the novel coronavirus by several weeks," they wrote.

The researchers said their work shows it may be more accurate to estimate Covid deaths, rather than try to count each and every positive test.

"Given the lack of adequate testing and geographical variability in testing intensity, this type of monitoring provides key information on the severity of the epidemic in different geographic regions," they wrote.

"It also provides some indication of the degree to which viral testing is missing deaths associated with COVID-19 directly or indirectly."
​

(More at the link)

 

It's easy to flip back dumb cartoons with even dumber slogans that purposely conflate who's really responsible.

Trump lies. People dies.

Trump lies how they dies.

LIBERATE US MR PRESIDENT

GIVE THE PEOPLE WHAY THEY WANT!!

a cure?

 

Good grief. Pence so out there, up front, leading the way, Right behind his hero, Mr trump, in the Idiots for America movement.