Currently, what is this team's biggest skill weakness?

Many of you think rebounding for next season but what do the stats say from last year? How bad were we? What areas were we bad/good and how should we improve?

Statically in the regular season last year we were middle of the road in rebounding tied at 14th, we had a differential of -0.1. Now the factors of missing Howard (a top 3 rebounder in the NBA) for so many games must be noted. The play-offs is where it truly matters. We were once again middle of the road. The interesting fact was Golden State was middle of the road in the regular season +0.2 but improved to +1.9 in the playoffs (3rd best behind Washington’s +5.0 and Cleveland’s +5.6). So yes we need to improve rebounding but it’s not a huge leap.

Now free throws we were 27th in the league at percentage along with being 2nd in attempts during the regular season. In the playoffs we were dead last in percentage and 1st in attempts! Those number are AWFUL! So last year no argument can be made against free throw being our biggest weakness. 3-point shooting we were middle of the road. Turnover differential we were actually 11th in the league and respectable in the play-offs.

The playoff is all about match ups. We lost the rebounding game to the Warriors (248rbd/210rbd in the series) because of Green mostly. He had a huge uptick in his rebounds against us. Look at the numbers, 61 rebounds in 5 games, well above his average. Now I believe rebounding hurt us in this series but watching the games you could point several factors and build an argument. Like too many turnovers at critical moments, ala Harden not even getting a shot off. Shooting 33% from 3 point line. Perimeter defense allowing so many wide open 3’s, it was a miracle the Warriors on hit 37%. And last year’s black eye: free throw shooting, we MISSED 93 free throws in 5 games.

So the poll is about THIS upcoming season. When I answered the poll I thought about the moves we’ve made thus far and suspended the fact that we will have injuries but it is impossible to predict to which player(s) and how severe and how long.

Perimeter Defense- Harden proved last year he can be counted on to play a decent level of defense. He actually won a few games with his late game stops. The addition of Lawson will keep Harden fresh for defense later in games. Beverley can return to greatness with reduce minutes. Lawson himself will not be worse than Jet and Pablo. Lawson’s limitations can be faded with the team defense. Ariza is elite. Brewer is solid. Those are the guys get 90% of the minutes. We are fine.

Paint defense/rim protecting- We are very solid here. Howard is elite, Capela is showing promise. D-mo is very good at positioning and protecting the paint. T-Jones is a good weak side defender when paired with Howard. It’s a big guess to say Harrell gets regular minutes but it’s no doubt he can play defense as along as he doesn’t foul out.

3-point shooting- Lawson will help. He will set Harden/Ariza/D-mo with better looks. Plus Lawson himself should improve with Harden setting him up with open looks on kick outs. D-mo was on fire at 40% for 2 months prior to his injury. He is our stretch 4. We won’t be elite at this skill but we should have some improvement on a skill we were middle of the pack at. Thornton should sign soon and he will be a good spot up guy off the bench. Brewer is the weak link here. He needs to limit his attempts and put the ball on the floor. If Jet returns we’ll be good with his spot duty as a sharp shooter.

Free throws- Lawson addition again will help. He gets to the line plenty and he is a good shooter. We lost Smith and he paired with Howard was a major problem. McHale stated that there was no way we could continue with this set up. Dorsey is out, Capela is in, that is an improvement. Capela is going to be a good shooter given time. He has a nice release, good rotation, he just needs experience. Jones and D-mo aren’t good but they aren’t in “Hack-a” strategy like Howard. Howard is who he is. Nothing will change this. Late games coaches will still decide to hack him and McHale will be left debating on taking him out or not. We should improve some but this will still be our weakest skill.

Turnover differential- Lawson addition took one of areas we are actually decent at and turned it into a chance to be elite. In the play-offs despite Harden carrying the load we were 6th at +1.1. Chicago was 2nd at +1.5. I have no doubt we can be top 3 next season.

Defensive rebounding- We aren’t terrible here but we need improvement. Looking at you D-MO even though I love your game. I think we will be average again. The wings can rebound on the defensive side very well and Howard is elite. It wouldn’t take much to be just a little bit better than average.

Offensive rebounding- hardly anyone complains about this factor. This is a hustle stat and we got hustle in spades.

Play-making/assists- Once again Lawson addition solves playmaking. This is a guard league and Lawson is one of the toughest guys to contain in the league, the only thing that can stop him is a failed breathalyzer. Assist we are fine, this team shares the ball.

 

These aren't my answers to the poll, just some things I'd like to see worked on.

Free throw shooting needs to improve.

Turnovers, but that's expected with the Rockets' pace.

Every player should work on their defense and three point shot.

 

We should have improved FT% by Dorsey and Smith leaving.
We should have improved TO's with Lawson if that all works out.

Biggest weakness left defensive rebounding. Capela will help with D12 on the bench, but our 4's need to learn to pound the boards.

I hope Jones picks up where he left off before the injury, he was really starting to show some flashes of 'good'ness.

 

Letting teams get back in the game.

Too often we get out in front with a nice run only to see it evaporate minutes later. We did it a couple of times against Clippers especially in game 7 where Paul was allowed to run wild and keep it close in the 4th even though the Clippers were lethargic and had struggled all game long. Add to that, we have stretches where McHale fails to call a timeout to ice the opponent when they go on a 10-0 or even 15-0 run against us. This has to end.

To me that's one of the major differences between us and Golden State. When the Warriors get out in front with a sizable lead in the 4th, they do not let off the throttle. We have to develop that same killer instinct to bury teams while ahead.

 

I agree with both points.

 

Turnovers are the way teams get back into a game when the rockets have a lead. Our two primary scorers were very turnover prone, which hopefully Lawson addresses, and fixes. A little less ball handling and playmaking from harden leave that to Lawson, and hardens mentality to be score everytime he touches the rock. Howard scores off alley oops, easy dunks, and offensive rebounds. They will all still get their touches.

 

With the upgrade roster we have the current weakness I see is mainly coaching. The top teams in the league will outcoach ours.

 

And I would expect our turnover differential to get even better. Lawson, Ariza, Brewer, and Harden are all top 50 in generating steals, and Lawson will help control the turnovers on offense by opening up the court (which has been overloaded on Harden's side) and reducing Dwight's post touches.

Rebounding seems to be an obvious issue to me. IMO, either you believe TJones can become that 2nd great rebounder on the court next to Dwight, or you need to go get someone else. DMo isn't going to be a high level rebounder.

I expect our shooting #s to go up across the board this season. The addition of Lawson means a more spread court....ie Ariza and DMo should get tons of open looks from 3. Regarding FTs, we've removed the two worst shooters on the team (Dorsey and Smith), and will probably reduce Howard's minutes to keep him fresh. Capela should improve this summer, and DMo and TJones are both out of the "Hack-A" range. Overall, if you just look at our potential minutes distribution, our FT shooting should go up.

 

Everybody knows the Rockets are going shoot the 3. Mchale needs to come up with plays to get the shooters open.

 

The biggest weakness isn't even listed. The team lacks a solid post defender. Someone to defend against mid range and driving power forwards. Who will guard LMA and BG in the playoffs? This is why losing Josh Smith is a big deal, there is no one on the roster to stop LMA from dropping 45 per game.

 

Spot on assessment. Plus 1

 

This post kind of shocks me. This is a guard/wing's league - I'm shocked you can't see that. Bigs don't score 45 routinely and in the case of Aldridge if he gets 45 points with a hand in his face while taking fade away long 2s, you shake his hand and tell him good game. There is no defending that. Blake is decent, but your MUCH more at a disadvantage if Chris Paul is slicing into the lane with Blake and Jordan as options near the hoop and Reddick at the 3pt line. You want Blake to try to beat you by scoring 45 because the Clippers are far more one dimensional that way than if Blake, Jordan, and Paul combine for 60+ points and getting their role players involved.

 

Floor spacing big man

 

a few things did us in last year.

1) lack of playmaking ability aside from harden
2) turnovers
3) ft%
4) rebounding

i think adding lawson, thornton, beverley, and dmo ... while losing josh, prigs, and doysey is a net positive for #1-3.

i would still like to see us upgrade the PF spot by moving jones/KJ or jones/brewer.

 

CHUCK HAYES SAYS HI! :grin:

 

Ok, at first glance I picked rebounding, which is a definite need, but upon reflection, it really is scoring. As Pat Riley once said "Out rebound a team and you'll win 75% of the time, outscore a team and you'll win 100% of the time." We need scorers! Hate him as an opposing coach, but his logic is right on.

 

We dont know