Heads up... http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/07/ts_cristobal_no.html T.S. Cristobal not formed yet, but don't look now... The area of low pressure we first discussed Monday, which has now moved into the Central Caribbean Sea, again looks like it might become a tropical depression today. The system has become better organized over night, and would become Tropical Storm Christobal were it to develop. Earlier in the week it appeared the system would remain far to the south and not threaten the United States, regardless of whether it developed. Now, unfortunately that may not be the case. In fact, the National Hurricane Center's preferred model, the GFDL, brings a category 1 or 2 hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico next week. Here's where the model has the system in the wee hours of next Wednesday morning, putting it pretty much on a collision course with Texas: Such models vary widely, of course. A run of the GFDL model yesterday brought the system toward New Orleans. And really, it's far too early to expect much insight from computer models, especially for an as-yet undeveloped system. Still, the message I want to convey is that the Caribbean system is a potential threat -- more so now than a few days ago -- and that it's well worth watching to see what happens. UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center has released a Tropical disturbance statement about the Carribean low pressure system as well as one off the coasts of Georgia/South Carolina. Such messages generally, but not always, precede tropical depressions. So it's possible we could get two, rather than one, tropical storms during the next day or two. The system off Georgia likely will produce heavy rainfall, but shouldn't be a terribly potent wind-maker. If the Caribbean system does develop later today I'll present a full analysis of the computer models, some of which bring it to the Gulf, while others steer it toward Central America.
Another Dr. Neil scare tactic? Last night, the 11 news said it was going in the direction towards Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend. That would suck for my friends who are going to Cozumel today.
All of the projections from wunderground have it going through the Yucatan: Worth looking at, but I wouldn't worry yet.
wes -- look at the track of GFDL as of 2 a.m. this morning. http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/07/carolina_depres_1.html For the Gulf Coast, our attention must remain on a Caribbean wave which may turn into a tropical depression today or tomorrow. Presently under a lot of shear, this system should move into a more favorable area for development tomorrow. Then it has the potential for rapid development, especially if it makes a northwestern turn. Some of you didn't appreciate the warning I tried to give, but there remains a fair chance of a hurricane coming to the Texas coast next week -- though the chances are probably still less than 50 percent. Still, if the storm comes, it will likely come quickly, reaching the Texas coast late Wednesday or Thursday. If anything, today's computer model runs are more concerning than what we saw yesterday. See now what the GFDL model develops off the Texas coast. The modeled storm's intensity has leaped to a category 4 hurricane, from a category 1 storm, coming ashore just east of Houston early next Thursday. Other major dynamical models -- such as the HWRF and GFS -- also now indicate this rapid development will occur, although they bring the storm to south Texas rather than toward Houston. Understand that these are just computer models, but they are among the ones the National Hurricane Center pays the most attention to. The models appear to be telling us something about that Caribbean wave, and we should keep our eyes wide open to the possibility that a tropical storm or hurricane will develop Monday in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This concerns me because many people do not pay attention to tropical weather until a storm is named, and in this case it would leave most Texans little time to prepare for a landfall. I'm not saying it will happen. I'm saying it might, and it's best to check up on the system over the weekend.
