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Cristian Javier's Invisiball

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Joe Joe, Jul 27, 2020.

  1. Yordan The Great

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    They assess a player who is still eligible for rookie status next season a value of twice that of Trout?

    Interdasting.
     
  2. Tuckmose

    Tuckmose Member

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    If there's anyone who needs an early extension, its Javier. Especially with the re-deadened ball and the shift changes making fly ball pitchers extremely valuable again.
     
  3. Marshall Bryant

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    Yes. Because Trade Value is about EXCESS value, not Field value. While Trout is a better player, he is getting paid better too. A player who is highly prized and with 3 years of CC and 3 years of Arbitration is not getting paid his field value yet so his excess value is high.

    In this scenario Trout is under contract for 8 more years and is estimated to be worth about 1.5M more than his contract each year. Even an inexperienced prospect who is highly thought of would be worth more over 6 years of non FA play. Even with the inherent risk of potential and rising Arb figures as a part of the calculus. I use Trout because I still consider him to be the best Position PLAYER in baseball. Judge hasn't performed consistently better, though he did just have one of the best single seasons.
     
    #123 Marshall Bryant, Nov 21, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2022
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  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    No. They value Trout's play as worth $297M for his contract years versus $58M for Brown's play. The difference is that Trout is owed about a quarter of billion dollars more than Brown will get (i.e., more than the entire Astros team will get in 2022).

    Edit: Though, I expect Brown's play will be worth a lot more than $58M.
     
    #124 Joe Joe, Nov 21, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2022
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  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    In the last 6 years, Judge has been the better player 3 times (2017, 2021, 2022) and overall it is a toss up on who's been better (I'd give a slight nod to Judge) over that time frame.

    Trout has been hurt too much, and the last 3-4 years he's been depending on his bat for almost all of his value. I'd have Judge ahead of him. I'd have Betts ahead of him. While I'm not sure who, but I expect there will be at least one Astro that has a better season than Trout.
     
  6. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/after-a-breakout-season-cristian-javier-earned-himself-a-nice-extension/

    Excerpts:
    Ajeto describes the performance as a perfect one-game representation of Javier’s skills and tendencies: “He basically took his fastball and dared the Phillies to hit it.”
    ....
    The illusion of the pitch rising from an extremely low arm slot makes it difficult with for a hitter with a high attack angle to get their bat or barrel on the ball consistently, especially if the pitch is at the top of the zone. As Ajeto points out, this leads to a bunch of whiffs and batted balls with extremely high launch angles, like it did against the Phillies. If you can’t get on plane, all you can do is swipe the bottom quarter of the ball and give a fielder a can of corn fly ball. It’s a sustainable, sticky trait that Javier can always fall back on.
     
  7. Marshall Bryant

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    Agreed that his performance hasn't been the best in the last six years though he's close even with his limited availability. But his average WAR for his career to date is higher. Any way, the point is about (anticipated) field value less contract value determining excess value or Trade Value. Like Bryant having a ~$100M dollar trade value because of his contract.
     
  8. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    There is no doubt who is the better player when healthy. The problem is that Trout is always hurt these days.

    Also crazy that they are the same age. Trout has been good for forever. The level of consistency when on the field is pretty amazing.
     
  9. Yordan The Great

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    Again cudos to the OP for this thread.
     
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  10. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Contributing Member
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    So maybe this is a stupid question, brought about by a guy who is not a baseball junky and who hasn't played baseball above the 8th grade level at the YMCA, but is there a chance that the league "catches up" to Javier's 4S fastball? The speed is not especially overpowering, so could the hitters not eventually just start accounting for that extra "rise" and swing a little higher than they would at a fastball from a different pitcher?

    Maybe they don't get enough reps against it to really do that, but from a casual fan perspective, I keep thinking if the only reason he gets so many whiffs is because players are swinging under, then eventually they'll just adjust that swing.
     
  11. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    I think a single hitter maybe able to do it for a single game, but it looks so much different than all the other pitches others see all season long, it's hard to get used to it if you only get to see it 10-20 times a season. How do you adjust a whole foot above where you think the ball should end op from the thousands of other fastballs you see all season. The other issue is that his slider is world class also and takes a similar path for the first 60 feet and diverts 30 feet from the plate.
     
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  12. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    If batters faced only Cristian Javier or guys close to him, I'd say batters would get better at hitting him. Josh James can throw a 100-mph fastball, but because it has normal movement, it gets driven easily. The batters' swings are developed for average MLB movement, and then the hitter adjusts midswing to abnormal movement. Batters for the most part can't tell themselves to start their swing aiming 3 inches higher than they would instintively swing at a pitch.
     
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  13. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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  14. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    His slider and fastball look the same until about 30 feet from the plate.
     
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  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Can see it well here on the fastball up and in and the slider in for strike up in the zone.

    Screenshot_20230313-192959_Chrome.jpg
     
  16. AkeemTheDreem86

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    Javier is the player about whom I'm probably most excited for this upcoming season. Can't wait!
     
  17. HeyBudLetsParty

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    He’s already special, but I think if he develops the change up he’s the best pitcher in baseball.
     

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