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Cristian Javier's Invisiball

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Joe Joe, Jul 27, 2020.

  1. Yordan The Great

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    They assess a player who is still eligible for rookie status next season a value of twice that of Trout?

    Interdasting.
     
  2. Tuckmose

    Tuckmose Member

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    If there's anyone who needs an early extension, its Javier. Especially with the re-deadened ball and the shift changes making fly ball pitchers extremely valuable again.
     
  3. Marshall Bryant

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    Yes. Because Trade Value is about EXCESS value, not Field value. While Trout is a better player, he is getting paid better too. A player who is highly prized and with 3 years of CC and 3 years of Arbitration is not getting paid his field value yet so his excess value is high.

    In this scenario Trout is under contract for 8 more years and is estimated to be worth about 1.5M more than his contract each year. Even an inexperienced prospect who is highly thought of would be worth more over 6 years of non FA play. Even with the inherent risk of potential and rising Arb figures as a part of the calculus. I use Trout because I still consider him to be the best Position PLAYER in baseball. Judge hasn't performed consistently better, though he did just have one of the best single seasons.
     
    #123 Marshall Bryant, Nov 21, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2022
    Yordan The Great and Joe Joe like this.
  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    No. They value Trout's play as worth $297M for his contract years versus $58M for Brown's play. The difference is that Trout is owed about a quarter of billion dollars more than Brown will get (i.e., more than the entire Astros team will get in 2022).

    Edit: Though, I expect Brown's play will be worth a lot more than $58M.
     
    #124 Joe Joe, Nov 21, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2022
  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    In the last 6 years, Judge has been the better player 3 times (2017, 2021, 2022) and overall it is a toss up on who's been better (I'd give a slight nod to Judge) over that time frame.

    Trout has been hurt too much, and the last 3-4 years he's been depending on his bat for almost all of his value. I'd have Judge ahead of him. I'd have Betts ahead of him. While I'm not sure who, but I expect there will be at least one Astro that has a better season than Trout.
     

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