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Cristian Javier's Invisiball

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Joe Joe, Jul 27, 2020.

  1. Nook

    Nook Member

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    As Keith Law has gotten older, he has become very set in his ways. He is huge on raw tools. He wants guys that can check off certain boxes.... if a player does not do that, then he is not going to typically like them. He also tends to be very stubborn and will not change his opinion of a prospect. I remember for example he rode the Mark Appel train all the way into oblivion because he liked him as a sophmore and never modified his opinion.... he did that with other players as well.
     
  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    This mentality does not seem limited to Law. Scouts in general (and people that depend on their information) don't see players often, and are very reluctant to change their opinion. It makes some sense if they are completely relying on a look here and there... like it was 10-15 years ago. There is more info out there now.

    Unfortunately, public prospect lists seem completely devoid of pitch tracking information and even simple statistical tests for upper level players. FanGraphs, not their prospect guys, will run an analysis to see how much WAR over a 6-year period will a prospect of a given FV actually produce. Javier's FV indicates he should produce 0.4 WAR over a 6 year period. He's almost there and hasn't even pitched 7 innings. Dominating upper level hitters in a fashion that only Urquidy and Strasburg have done in recent memory should have warranted a higher rating.

    I don't know what Javier will pitch with the endurance needed to be an ace or if secondary pitches end up keeping him at BoR or in the pen. It would be a complete shock if he isn't a long time MLB player provided injuries don't end or derail his career.
     
    #22 Joe Joe, Jul 31, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2020
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  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Blake Taylor is like the reverse Cristian Javier. Besides for throwing with other arm, his arm slot is more vertical than Javier's which should lead to vertical movement. However, Taylor gets almost all of his spin into side spin which causes his 4S to "sink" (i.e. no spin vertically to counter gravity) with a ton of tailing action. This is not normal for such a vertical delivery. Mentioned this in another thread, but it is almost like RHP's cutter. As such, it should have reverse splits. WTF is up with Astros and reverse splits for relievers. Astros finally get a good lefty reliever and he probably will do better against RHBs.
     
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  4. Buck Turgidson

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    Taylor throws good pitches, that pretty much explains it.
     
  5. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
     
  6. PhiSlammaJamma

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    Think it would be important to have at least two invisiballs. Because if you have only one, and the other one is just bouncing down the street in all it's glory, someone is going to kick it.
     
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  7. raining threes

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    You've been the leader of the Javier bandwagon since the beginning. Nice find.
     
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  8. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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  9. sealclubber1016

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    It seems Javier was able to shake off the lack of spring training. Not sure if he put in a lot of extra work, or he's just blessed, either way he's shown no sign of rust that we've seen from most pitchers.

    With the short season, I see no reason Javier shouldn't be able to go wire to wire in the rotation.
     
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  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I'd say he's handled it better than most of the other starters by just throwing strikes. His ERA is going to go up as he's bound to have some bad luck at some point, but over I expect he's going to get stronger as the season goes. He'll go deeper into games, and dominate hitters longer into it.
     
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  11. conquistador#11

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    From Carlos' sexiness to God's ears. We need 2 of these guys to pan out/
     
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  12. BossHogg713

    BossHogg713 Member

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    He is the future of this team.
     
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  13. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

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  14. cmlmel77

    cmlmel77 Up all Night Watching Houston Sports
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    Javier is to Whitley as Yordan is to Tucker.

    National media loves the tools and pedigree of latter of each pair, while insiders tell us not to sleep on the former ... who then burst on the scene while Tucker and Whitley struggle with attitude and expectations (and injury for Forrest).

    Farm system rankings need to be taken with a massive pile of salt
     
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  15. Buck Turgidson

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    Or it's possible than none of those 4 players have a ****ing thing to do with each other?

    I dunno.
     
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  16. cmlmel77

    cmlmel77 Up all Night Watching Houston Sports
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    If you are being pedantic they have a lot to do with each other (same farm system, same timing). Or you could, you know, debate it as an analogy or, if you disagree, ignore it.

    Or be an insufferable prick.

    I dunno
     
  17. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Full article here: https://theathletic.com/2001990/202...track-on-the-once-overlooked-cristian-javier/

    Excerpts:
    Javier showed he could throw strikes and repeat his delivery, but his 84-86 mph fastball velocity left much to be desired. No contract was offered, but Ocumarez told Guevara to stay on Javier and track his progress. Ocumarez said the Astros brought Javier back to the complex every month and a half or so to gauge whether his velocity had improved. The second time was better but still not quite good enough. By the third audition, Ocumarez hoped to see 90 mph. It rained heavily that day at the Astros complex, so they moved Javier’s tryout from the field to the indoor batting cages. Javier sat at 88-89 mph. It was good enough.
    ..

    On the mound, Javier reveals little. As Astros manager Dusty Baker said recently of the young pitcher’s demeanor: “He doesn’t show any emotion at all. He’ll give you a smile every once in a while. That’s about it.” Guevara described Javier as cold-blooded, which is the same conclusion drawn a couple of years ago by his High-A manager and pitching coach, Morgan Ensberg and Drew French. They took to calling him “Reptil,” the Spanish word for reptile.
     
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  18. Buck Turgidson

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    No, I was just saying that none of those players have anything to do with each other.

    Completely different hitters, completely different pitchers.

    Am I being pedantic and/or insufferable now?
     
  19. cmlmel77

    cmlmel77 Up all Night Watching Houston Sports
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    My point was about the unreliability of national prospect assessments, even in the very short term. The four have a lot to do with each other given they are all prospects at the same time for the same organization.

    In both cases the consensus top prospect - and one of the best prospects in all of baseball - was immediately outperformed by a much less heralded rookie. And in both cases we had some of our more respected insiders predicting that might be the case.

    Your response was , and continues to be, simply obnoxious.
     
  20. Buck Turgidson

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    Prospect lists are if not totally, almost completely, worthless.

    Agreed? Friends?
     
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