CP3 May not resign [Bill Simmons tweet so grain of salt needed]

So, a 2nd round playoff exit isn't awesome compared to our 1st round exit this year? Its not like we couldn't sign/draft/trade to acquire a better PF who can score.

 

I already knew what he meant but he basically has no idea what he's talking about...especially how the quote I posted yesterday from Blake makes you see Simers with the mouth full of marbles he has.

 

I honestly don't think any would. Bigs are preferred over wings because they have the ability to control both sides of the court. But Blake really controls neither. He isn't a very good defender so he doesn't bring the advantage of anchoring your defense. He has no post game so it's not like he is dominating in the paint and getting guys open looks. He's basically a great finisher that you can't go to and close games. He and Harden are both young scorers that don't defend. The difference is Harden can close games and is much better getting his own shot.

 

GMs think long term and Blake has way more upside than Harden. I don't think any GMs take Harden here.

 

Why does Blake have more upside?

Sure if he improves his low post game and becomes a better defender.

Harden's problems are all pretty much mental. That's a easier hurdle to climb than having to learn a post game which can be extremely difficult. Anything else that Harden works on like a post up move or two is a bonus to already one of the best offensive players in the NBA.

If he simply stops ball watching he becomes a better team defender instantly.

 

Trade Asik (really really easy, maybe so easy we could pawn off Royce and cash), Lin (maybe not so easy), Robinson (easy) for nothing, sign them both.

 

Why does he have more upside? Because he's taller?

Skilled bigs are the ones GMs kill for. Or ones that impact a game defensively. That's not Blake. He's basically a more athletic version of Amare, with a worse jumper. P

 

More upside because he's still relatively raw. This year he showed some range and improved defense and I'd expect those to improve. Obviously he can improve his post game.

What Griffin has that very few players don't is great size and tremendous athleticism. These are things you can't teach, which is why these guys are so valuable. Same thing with, say, Andre Drummond. But what separates Blake from a guy like Kwame Brown is that he's also shown talent. He has a high bball IQ and is one of the best passing and ball handling bigs in the game. The upside is staggering.

 

I don't see Dallas getting CP3/Dwight. Why would they want to play with Dirk when Dirk has past the prime of his career? If they decide to team up, they go to Atlanta. As you pointed out, Atlanta can sign both of them whilst keeping Horford, Korver, and Williams (that's a solid starting lineup). Plus, Howard's from Atlanta and Paul is a southern boy himself.

Is it possible that Horford could be traded? And Smith could be the third wheel instead of him?

 

We're talking about players who are 4 years into their career, not draft combine 19 yos, you take the franchise player over the person with the potential to be a franchise player 99 out of 100.

For someone like Paul, that goes up to 100 out of 100, for him it will come down to "Do i like my life in LA" or "Do I want to win", would I blame him for taking the first one? no not really, it's not like he's getting lynch by media, scorn by fans like Dwight is, from all reports it's all pretty awesome for him, but at the same time, he seems driven by winning as much as Kobe.

 

Dwight has shown no interest in Atlanta, in fact it's been the one place he's basically said he doesn't want to be, on top of that, they only have space because Smith doesn't want to be there, and its Atlanta, it's a team that has literally always aimed to just be a playoff team, they are absolutely 100% content with mediocrity (coming from Atlanta, Dwight would know this, which is probably why he's always said no).

 

Well he does have more room to grow because Harden right now is the better player. It's like Anthony Davis has more room to grow than Blake Griffin...because right now Davis is a average caliber player and Griffin is a all-star caliber player.

Harden right now though is one of the best offensive players in the NBA. He's already proven that he could play a huge role on a championship team. Proven that he can help lead his team to the playoffs without another all-star. Top 5 player in Win Shares and scoring...He's already proven a lot more than Blake has at this point to be fair.

If Blake develops a low post game then yeah that guy is going to be a monster...but we've been saying this about Dwight for years now...that If Dwight can develop that he'd be unstoppable.

It's easier said than done though...

 

Right, and barring an unrealistic "big 3" teamup, not only does CP3 make the most money in LA, but he also has the best shot of winning there. A core of Paul, Griffin, Crawford, and whatever they can get for Bledsoe/Jordan/expirings is as good a team as he's going to get and certainly a contender with the right coach.

Look at it this way.. after game 2 when it looked like the Clippers were going to beat Memphis, it wasn't unrealistic to see them in the WCF or even the Finals. Has that much changed because they lost to a very good team (one that most here are saying will make it far this year) in the first round? It was an unfortunate matchup due to the top teams in the West being so strong this year. But if the Clippers had won a few more games they might be looking at a Finals birth this year. The team is fine.

 

Harden is very good, but understand that Blake put up comparable numbers as a rookie (23/12) when he was the first option. His numbers are down strictly because of his role, just as Harden didn't show his full impact when he was a secondary player in OKC. And if the Clippers hadn't had their worst injury year even when Blake was a rookie (three starters out most of the year), it's very likely he would have led them to the playoffs then too. And he's much better now. So I'm not saying he's all potential-- he's a legitimate all star now-- but he still has incredible upside. I don't see Harden getting better because his game is already developed.

And there are very few players I wouldn't trade for Dwight, lack of offensive game notwithstanding. That is a franchise player if there ever was one. He's just in an awful sitaution right now.

 

If the Clippers can get value for Bledsoe/Jordan, then Houston can get basically nothing for Asik/Lin (Bledsoe's rookie contract might be worth more than Lin, but Jordan v Asik is a whole bunch of lolz), which means the only thing stopping a big 3 (+1) is choice.

 

Considering that both players have accomplished about the same.

You should venture over to the GARM forums because according to a lot of Rocket fans Harden has a lot to improve on. Just mental things. Decision making (he likes to dribble out the clock...then pass at the last second for whatever reason) defense...and also again just mental things. Realizing when his shot is not falling and then driving into the paint. Or realizing that the refs are being ******* tonight and stop trying to force getting to the line. These things may seem small but in big games they are huge.

His shooting can always imrpove too. He's no Curry. He's no guy you are just going to want shooting jumpers all night.

If he just improves his defense though then he would go into that Tier 1 status because offensively he's already a top 5 player. It's his defense that stops him from being prime Wade or Kobe though.

James Harden is definitely not in his prime.

 

Well, it's true he can make some marginal improvements, but what I mean is that his game is pretty well define-- and it's good. Blake's game may not be as good at this point (always hard to compare guards to bigs), but it is still good. The difference is that Blake has monumental upside. There's nothing Harden can do to get bigger or more athletic but there is plenty Blake can do to get more skilled. And unlike Drummond or your standard "bigs with upside", Blake has already shown a lot of basketball skill (this tends to be dismissed here because people just think of him as a dunker, but guys who just dunk don't handle the ball or pass as well as Blake).

A more intriguing comparison would be Blake vs Anthony Davis, since both are skilled with upside to varying degrees.

 

He's put up less points, less rebounds, whilst being less efficient except for an improved free throw percentage.

See if you look at miami, Wade and Bosh's numbers are both down, but their efficiency has improved markedly (each year too, Bosh's EFG% is 10% higher than his first year in Miami and last year in toronto). Harden's efficiency when with two others was historically great for a shooting guard. Is Paul not a good enough play maker or something?

If there was a guy in basketball who you look at and think, you know what, you might not just have the functionality between the ears to play a Bosh like role for a contender, it's Griffin.

 

The truth is that Blake and Paul haven't meshed as well as we hoped they would. Paul is very ball dominant and Vinny didn't run any offensive sets so the number of actual plays between Paul and Blake were small. Paul did better in NOH with West, because West scored primarily from pick and pop. Blake added a midrange game this year probably to accommodate-- and I read that his percentage from there was comparable to Bosh (which is surprising since it didn't seem that effective to me)-- but I think this took away from the easy offense he was getting closer to the hoop. The Clippers really should be running more pick and roll. I think with a better coach, this would improve.

Blake's raw stats were down primarily because he played way less minutes this year due to the Clippers effective bench. His PER has been pretty constant his career, right around the top 10 in the league, which pretty impressive for such a young guy.

 

Bosh shot 39% from 10-16ft and a ridiculous 52% from 16-23 ft (he shot 3 times as many of the latter as well), Griffin was about 35% from both so i really have no idea where that comes from....