I don't understand how you were right. Didn't people die from COVID at about 12 times the rate of flu? Lets go ahead and say that half of those deaths are what some individuals consider "BS deaths" that weren't actually due to COVID, that's still at a rate of 6 times the rate of flu, regarding deaths. That's also assuming I take the highest count of 50k, which it varies between 10k - 50k over the years. Why make up things? You don't think COVID is dangerous, fine, but don't make up BS numbers. The number of deaths does not indicate "bad flu season". Overwhelmed hospitals with a shortage of staff does not indicate "bad flu season" either. It's cool, if you want to continue doing you, that's totally cool, just stop lying man. EDIT: Kept numbers simple. 1st year, 600k COVID Deaths in the US. 1st year, 300k COVID "Non BS Deaths" in the US, I assumed half to be generous. Flu season, between 12 to 50k deaths a year, I went with 50k.
Hard to argue this locked down logic. Got any pointers on ****ing my first chimp. Asking for a friend.
It is just like you are arguing with someone who fell asleep in class and figured since he totally understands the first half of the lecture there was no need in actually hearing the second half. Just like.
Getting a bit more clearly. Looks like O (Omicron variant) is not more contagious than Delta, but it looks more contagious (~2.5x Delta in Uk/S.Africa) because accumulated immunity (from both infection and vaccination) provides little protection against infection from O. Limited data from Pfz does show good protection against infection with a booster shot, which few has in UK and S.Africa. Still not clear how deadly O is vs Delta. It is however expected that accumulated immunity (even without the booster, but booster will improve protection against both infection and severity) provides solid protection against severe illness. This accumulated immunity against severe illness might be clouding the data as to how severe O is innately (which is important to know for those that have no immunity through vaccination/infection or has a compromised immune system).
It's also going to be difficult to directly compare from South Africa due to their extremely high treated and untreated HIV rates. Anecdotally they have said 99% of the people in the hospital with omicron covid are unvaccinated. I saw the average length of stay was only a few days and there was not a significant demand for supplemental oxygen.
Deaths are 0 so far on the variant. The common cold is worse. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ted-from-omicron-yet-as-covid-variant-spreads Look. When Bill Maher is scolding you, it's time to quit drinking the kool-ade.
I have no idea what HIV has to do with Covid transmission or severity, but yes, due to differences in prior immunity and other factors, it's difficult to compare. The NYT has a good article on this today: Opinion | Will Covid Evolve to Be Milder? - The New York Times (nytimes.com) In December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 entered a human population that had no immunity to it. In December 2021, the Omicron variant is entering a human population that has a large amount of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. That immunity in and of itself will lessen the disease severity of the variant. But in people with limited or compromised immunity, such as the unvaccinated, the elderly or the immune compromised, SARS-CoV-2 may still be able to cause severe disease because they don’t have protection conferred by pre-existing immunity. Covid-19 becoming a milder disease is not a decision the virus will make, it’s a decision that all of us can make if we take advantage of the vaccines that can control spread and reduce the burden of this disease. My current mental model (can be wrong!) is that we have two strains (Delta and O) in parallel. Those places that have gone through the Delta wave will now go through the O wave (with more breakthroughs). Those places that have not gone through the Delta wave will go through both waves (potentially at the same time). O will not displace Delta. Bad news overall. As far as severity, we still really don't know. S.Afr data is mostly for those under 40 so we should be cautious about it being "mild". But it is "mild" so far suggests that prior infection or vaccination is protecting the population from severe illness and/or it is innately milder. We still have no solid data on how severe it is to people that have no prior immunity or have a weak immune system. It might take some time to know this since it's not easy to identify these people (the best data might be severity in those 65+ who has weaker immune system).
It's just another significant comorbidity. Even HIV controlled with antiretrovirals presents higher risk. It is also interesting that omicron mutations seem to have developed on their own naturally in an HIV infected and chronically covid infected person that they had tracked. Also these data points were shared from a doctor on another forum. The study showed prior vaccination or infection will hold for T-cell immunity when related to Omicron. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.06.471446v1 There is a growing concern that ongoing evolution of SARS-CoV-2 could lead to variants of concern (VOC) that are capable of avoiding some or all of the multi-faceted immune response generated by both prior infection or vaccination, with the recently described B.1.1.529 (Omicron) VOC being of particular interest. Peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples from PCR-confirmed, recovered COVID-19 convalescent patients (n=30) infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the United States collected in April and May 2020 who possessed at least one or more of six different HLA haplotypes were selected for examination of their anti-SARS-CoV-2 CD8+ T-cell responses using a multiplexed peptide-MHC tetramer staining approach. This analysis examined if the previously identified viral epitopes targeted by CD8+ T-cells in these individuals (n=52 distinct epitopes) are mutated in the newly described Omicron VOC (n=50 mutations). Within this population, only one low-prevalence epitope from the Spike protein restricted to two HLA alleles and found in 2/30 (7%) individuals contained a single amino acid change associated with the Omicron VOC. These data suggest that virtually all individuals with existing anti-SARS-CoV-2 CD8+ T-cell responses should recognize the Omicron VOC, and that SARS-CoV-2 has not evolved extensive T-cell escape mutations at this time.
Traveling for the first time internationally since the pandemic. Am in Amsterdam right now and the Netherlands is allowing US travelers in with proof of vaccination. Had to correct the Delta check in people at the Minneapolis airport who first said I needed a negative COVID-19 test. Also my vaccination status I’ve got on an ap using a QR code but the Delta people wanted to see my vaccination card. Many countries including the Netherlands don’t want to see the card but an app with a QR code. After some back and forth with a manager they agreed I was right. One thing interesting here in Amsterdam is the cafe I’m at asked to see either a negative COVID test or proof of vaccination. The real challenge is coming up as I’m heading to Singapore in a couple of days. I need a negative PCR tests within two days of departure, a test on arrival in Singapore and then daily testing for the first week. I’m getting ready to take my PCR tests here in Amsterdam and if I don’t pass that then my trip to Singapore is likely off.
My half assed guess would be O infecting and incubating more among the young as Africa's younger pop wasn't hit that bad with covid compared to older countries. If this is "weaker" might have the benefit of people (with healthy immune systems) fighting it off and letting the body adapt. Bit of a fools gamble to take that to the bank though.
Multiple-destination trips are a concern with a lot of people I know. If you contract COVID before your next destination, you're stuck and not allowed to go anywhere. I also had issues with airline check-in staff when I flew back in the summer. They didn't know how to interpret a positive antibody test. They kept claiming my test had to be negative, despite having an approved travel QR code to my destination and proof of vaccination.
Measures are even stricter than I thought here in Amsterdam. All bars and restaurants hve to close at 5pm. Essential stores such as grocery stores close at 8pm these measures are in effect until January 14.
Still getting used to in Amsterdam that have to show proof of vaccination or negative COVID tests at indoor restaurants and cafe's. I'm glad I got the international data plan for my phone as they only accept proof from a QR code or an app. Talking to some people here and they thought it was odd that in the US we use flimsy piece of cardstock for proof of vaccination.
Random noob question that I haven't heard talked about (admittedly haven't read the thread much lately).... If the omicron variant is truly more mild, and it takes over as the predominant strain, isn't that a good thing for society in general? Less death and less severe strains floating around = this thing being on the right track, as in reducing down to the cold or flu?
Long term, probably yes, though more cases equals more probability of future mutations (though that seems inevitable regardless). Short-term, it depends. If it spreads 3x as fast and has 50% of the hospitalizations, it still means more hospitalizations and a breakdown of the healthcare system. If it spreads 3x as fast but has 10% of the hospitalizations, that's good. Also depends if infection by one strain prevents infection by the other. If you can get Delta and Omicron independently, that's a whole different problem. And if vaccine doesn't provide good protection, you now have a potential issue with elderly and immunocompromised people who go back to being at high risk as well as a much larger pool of regular people to get moderately sick. Ultimately, the measure to look at is the health care system. If it's not overwhelmed, then we likely have a manageable virus. If it is, we've got a major problem, not only due to Covid, but because of all the other illnesses that won't get proper care. For omicron, we won't know that for a few more weeks probably. National Guard was sent into Ohio yesterday to help their overwhelmed health care system. Military went into Michigan a few weeks ago and they have requested more support. I believe several other states are going that route as well. And this is all pre-Omicron takeover. As long as this kind of thing is happening, we can't really get back to normal.
Continue to test negative including the official PCR test I took to allow me to go to Singapore. Still a strange experience here in Amsterdam. The bar downstairs at my hotel was packed at 4PM and then at 5PM they cleared everyone out. Just took a walk outside and it's dead on the streets. Very different than when I was here almost exactly 3 years ago. Just glad that this isn't my first trip to Amsterdam as it would really suck being cooped up in a hotel and having to go out masked and trying to avoid people. Almost fell into a canal trying to avoid a large group.
