Man, I haven't seen you here in years...hope you're doing well (COVID notwithstanding) and feeling better soon!!!!
Yeah, I thought I had returned for good several weeks ago but some of the stories I read are going to keep my activity on here limited. Thanks a lot for the well wishes, I wasn't sure if you were still around here either but it is good to see some familiar names.
"The reality is December and January and February are going to be rough times. I actually believe they're going to be the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation," largely because of the stress to the health system, CDC Director Robert Redfield said Wednesday during a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event. The coronavirus is surging across the entire nation, and the health care system is being strained nearly to the breaking point in many states. At least 270,000 people have died, including nearly 2,600 on Tuesday, the highest single-day death toll of the pandemic so far. Redfield said 90 percent of hospitals are in the red zone, with more than 90,000 people hospitalized. "I do think unfortunately, before we see February, we could be close to 450,000 Americans dead from this virus," he said, but added the country is not defenseless. "The truth is, mitigation works. The challenge with this virus is, it's not going to work if half of us do what we need to do. It's not even going to work, probably if three quarters of us do what we need to do. This virus really is going to require all of us to really be vigilant," Redfield said.
Good to hear that you're on the mend but from what I've heard from many people these symptoms can be with you for a long time and can also come in waves.
3,157 deaths reported yesterday for the country. That's more than died on 911 and we're likely going to pass that single day number..
Is there any known information on how/if vaccinated people can catch, shed, and asymptomatically spread the virus? My wife is scheduled to receiver the first vaccination shot in mid-December as a frontline healthcare worker. Is it safe for her to see her father for Christmas? My gut is saying that it's still slightly risky (but less than no vaccination) since it'll be before the booster shot and the it takes time for the body to build up immunity. We won't stop socially distancing since who knows when I'll be able to get vaccinated.
I also have this question. It's a bit confusing. I read that the vaccine help prevent the illness but not prevent the infection. I'm understanding that as: you can catch it and still spread it but you won't be impacted by it. Not sure if that's correct. How a Covid-19 Vaccine Could End Up Helping the Virus Spread - Bloomberg A vaccine that protects against symptoms of Covid-19 could contribute to the spread of the disease if—and this is still just an if—the people who get vaccinated remain capable of carrying and transmitting the virus. That’s a risk that’s gotten little attention amid the deserved jubilation over a Nov. 9 report from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE that their vaccine candidate appears to be highly effective. It’s a matter of timing. If everyone in the world is vaccinated, or has developed antibodies through exposure to the disease, there will be no problem. But in the early going, when only some people are protected, they could unwittingly spread the disease to people who are still vulnerable. The vaccinated people might stop wearing masks and social distancing since they aren’t themselves at risk anymore. They could be carrying the SARS-CoV-2 virus, even if they’re not getting sick from it. How big a problem this might be is hard to say, because we don't know for sure if immunized people are capable of shedding infectious virus. It's possible that their antibodies will eradicate any infection pretty quickly, so they might just shed viral debris. Pfizer and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not immediately respond to requests for comment. ... There’s still one huge mystery surrounding coronavirus vaccines – BGR In an interview about coronavirus vaccines and COVID-19 prevention, a Moderna executive said current data does not yet prove that vaccines prevent a person from being infectious after contracting the virus. Tal Zaks told Axios that the drug prevents people from getting severely ill or even sick at all when catching COVID-19, but it’s unclear if they can still spread the disease. Infection after vaccination is still a possibility, but the goal of vaccines is to prevent severe illness that can lead to life-threatening complications. ... “I think we need to be careful, as we get vaccinated, not to over-interpret the results,” the Moderna exec said. “Our results show that this vaccine can prevent you from being sick and can prevent you from being severely sick. They do not show that they prevent you from potentially carrying this virus transiently and infecting others.” Zaks continued, “When we start the deployment of this vaccine, we will not have sufficient, concrete data to prove that this vaccine reduces transmission. Do I believe it reduces transmission? Absolutely, yes. And I say this because of the science. But absent proof, I think it’s important that we don’t change behaviors solely on the basis of vaccination.”
Moderna is saying that their vaccine is 100% effective in preventing serious cases -- need a lot more data, but it's a good sign I suppose that they are confident making that claim.
Yes, what they don't know is if you are still infectious and to what level. So, even if you take the vaccine, don't stop social distancing or wearing masks... until we have more data on if these vaccines stop or drastically reduce the spread of the virus.
They don't actually know from the data whether Moderna or Pfizer's vaccines prevent the spread of the disease. They do know it prevents people from getting sick at huge rates (95%), and they are amazingly almost 100% at preventing people from getting REALLY sick and going to a hospital. The reason they don't know if they stop the spread or not is because those studies only tested people that got sick. So if you were in the vaccine trial, and never got sick, you never got tested. You may have, in fact, been infected asymptomatically, but counted as someone in the "non sick" group. The Astra Zeneca trial did it differently. They constantly swabbed participants for the virus, whether they got sick or not. So their infection rate is more closely linked to an actual infection rate. Even if you didn't get sick at all, but tested positive, you were put in the "sick" group. That one appears to show that they PREVENT any infection (thus stop the spread) in 60-70% of the cases. That's why their numbers are probably not as good as Pfizer and Moderna at the top line. This doesn't get into the weird analysis of the 1/2 dose vs full dose phenomenon. The good news: since they are all based on basically the same technology, it would be fair to have a hypothesis that the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines probably stop a comparable amount of spread as the Astra Zeneca. So basically: you'll have vaccines that keep almost 100% of people out of the hospital, 90-95% of people from getting sick at all, and perhaps stop upwards of 60-70% of the spread. The craziest thing to me is the FDA approval process. I understand that in other countries, their medical approval process takes the summary analysis and reviews it from the companies. The FDA, considered the GOLD STANDARD of the world, has much higher bars set. The FDA doesn't take the summary analysis from the company that made the drug...they take the raw data and review it line by line and perform their own analysis. I understand that this takes longer. However, as someone that has worked in data analytics for 20 years, I also know that if you get a bunch of smart data wonks in a room for 16 hours a day for 3-4 days, you'll have your analysis done and ready to review. Waiting 3 weeks to hold the meeting while everyone goes over the data seems dangerous as 2-3,000 people are dying per day. I sort of can't believe that they didn't lock people into Zoom calls for 16 hours a day until they got the data reviewed. It looks bad that the UK approved before the US.
Several of my clients have been hit this year, but now an office in H-Town has been decimated. They don't take it seriously and it spreads, then immediately erodes 30%-50% of revenue because nobody is available to complete the work and 50%-75% of sales because nobody can sell. JUST KEEP EVERYTHING OPEN, THE ECONOMY!
My 16 year old son is in his second year of chemo and I get stressed at times at the thought of him contracting this thing and the possible effects it could have. But then, according to his mom (we're not together), the doctors and nurses in the cancer ward he goes to every week are not concerned at all. They even stopped taking temperatures to get in the door at the hospital in September. Pretty crazy. But I highly suggested to my family that we do Christmas virtually this year after we cancelled our get together for Thanksgiving when my sis-in-law got it for the second time. We were all at their house two nights before her positive test. Every one else has tested negative but it was too close a call for me and I'd rather play it safe this year. So now I'm the Grinch and have multiple people pissed at me because of that. Being too safe or not, I'm just trying to take precautions and I'd rather be safe than sorry. Our parents are nearly 70 as well.
Refuse to take $hit from anyone when you're protecting your family. They can go to hell. The CDC has already come out and said that getting tested and getting together still puts a lot of risk due to false positives or the chance that someone got it after they were tested and brought it.
Well, my cough and fever haven't been around in 4 days so that's a positive. Congestion comes and goes. Still can't smell or taste anything.
Temperatures aren't a good screener for COVID at all, so I wouldn't worry about your hospital. Family gatherings are super stressful right now. My wife and I have an agreement that I decide what to do with my side and she gets to with hers. I've pretty much said no to any gathering on my family, but her family wants to still. They're not following the safest practices in their daily lives, and I'm afraid we'll get sick from them. I'm not worried about a fatal disease or any longlasting complications as we're both young and healthy, but we have a toddler and taking care of one is hard enough when we're healthy. Unfortunately, my wife is still insistent on seeing her family. I definitely empathize with you. Don't feel bad about canceling plans. Being the bad guy sucks, but losing a family member is worse.
My wife, who is a school librarian, just told me that the Region 4 (Houston area) big wigs are discussing 100% remote in January due to Covid spikes. She said they’ve had classes being closed all week at her school due to kids going home with fevers.
Just speaking as an internet stranger here, so I know nothing about your family situation, but I would tell her not to chance it. Just try to get daughter and father communicating through a video call. 0% chance of exposure because of a Zoom call sounds a lot better than even 0.0000001% chance of exposure because they met up on Christmas.
