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COVID-19 (coronavirus disease)/SARS-CoV-2 virus

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by tinman, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. Nook

    Nook Member

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    You are looking at everything in a vacuum. If you were get rid of COVID restrictions you would see a far higher rate of infection and the number of people dying with climb accordingly. We already have 260,000 in 8 months and are on pace for 400,000+ dead in one year. Infection increases exponentially without measures. A place like El Paso currently has an infection rate of 12-20% currently. Without lock down measures we would easily have over 1,000,000 dead and likely more as hospitals become swamped.

    The estimate is that 675,000 American's died of the Spanish flu over the course of of two years. That is the rate of death we are on track for in the USA. Now, the population in the USA is a lot larger than 100 years ago, but technology is also far more developed.

    I am not saying the solution is to shut down the world forever....... the reality is that it a very complicated issue with many factors to consider....... but it HAS been very deadly and the only reason it isn't even worst is that we did take some measures and did shut down some gatherings and require masks......... every day 1,000 Americans are dying from it.
     
  2. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Are you posting this for everyone to see or just for me? I've been pretty clear this whole entire time about the route I would prefer we took. I don't know why there are people who think I'm against some of these things. I was pushing for masks nearly at the very beginning of the outbreak. However, their effectiveness and possibly more effective additional measures need to be analyzed. Second, we have a lot of data on who is at higher risk and at extreme risk and we still have people trying to act like this virus treats people somewhat equally. It simply does not. I've tried pointing this out for months.

    We also still have flu-bros like Fatty...who is actually at risk but doesn't want to acknowledge it

    I keep seeing people say "be responsible", but I don't think just practicing mask wearing and social distancing are where "being responsible" ends. Pushing people to lose 10-15 lbs, staying active, maintaining proper nutrition, recognizing your risk level, and addressing it with your doctor is also being responsible. I don't see this being promoted anywhere as a part of the primary strategy to combat Covid and all disease. That means including those things with social distancing and masking wearing. After Covid is gone we are still going to have far more people dying and living poor lives due to obesity related diseases.

    I was hoping Covid might actually get people to start noticing existing obesity issues and treat them since Covid and obesity are directly related, but it doesn't seem like it will change anything. We won't have any counters for the 20-25% of deaths that are related to being fat Americans and acceptance of that lifestyle and the consequences of it. #murica
     
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  3. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    I tried to bring up post viral syndrome earlier and got admonished for it. Anyhow I thought this was a good video discussing some of the issues. I always recommend watching on 1.25-1.5x speed.

     
    #10323 robbie380, Nov 23, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2020
  4. txtony

    txtony Member

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    It was for all, but mainly for you. Maybe I misread. I though you and @rocketsjudoka were debating about restriction (NPI) vs economy. That's an area I looked into months ago when the perception (and it's still a strong perception today) that NPI = disaster to the economy instead of recognizing the root cause and that in fact NPI is non-factor to being good for the economy. Apology if not.

    As for the personal responsible things - it takes months and years to get to those habits. Cancer, diabetes, heart disease is not new. Add covid to the list and I doubt it will change the needle that much. Even if someone wanted to, it takes lot of effort to develop new healthier habits (we can all use more of it). Most importantly, we can't flip on a "responsibility" switch and see immediate changes to our underlining health, but we can flip on a NPI switch to slow down covid-19.
     
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  5. gifford1967

    gifford1967 Contributing Member
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    Dude, we have a very significant percentage of the population howling "oppression" because they are asked to take the relatively simple and easy steps of mask wearing and social distancing. Adding nutritional and exercise guidance to these measures is doomed to failure and would likely make things worse, as even more people would say "It's too complicated and hard, **** it all." In addition, your risk turning nutrition and exercise into more of a political issue than they already are. I mean look at the hissy fit that was thrown over Michelle Obama's work around diet and exercise.
     
  6. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    I don't know what judoka is trying to discuss honestly. He's just kind of against almost anything I bring up and isn't really listening to me.

    Anyhow, I do wish we had good studies on what percentage of the "underlying" conditions deaths and severe cases were simply conditions that related to obesity. Treating obesity is a NPI. And yes I know what I'm pushing for is completely unrealistic in America since we want to ignore the reality and consequences of our lifestyles. I also fully understand that covid is a dangerous virus. I feel like I have to add that now if I question anything lol.

    I also agree that having non pharma interventions helps and doesn't destroy the economy as long as they are balanced and not a sledgehammer approach. There is a rebound effect when they are too heavy handed and people (specifically Americans) will resist them.
     
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  7. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    It doesn't mean that we shouldn't bring it up. America just hit a new high with 40% of the population qualifying as obese. Covid severity and obesity are directly related.

    Also, it does help give people a sense of control in their life if they know they can take action to help their body better combat a virus rather than just feeling like a sitting duck. Just my opinion.
     
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  8. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I'm not terribly concerned about the rate of infection since such a small fraction of a percent of the population is seriously affected so long as hospitals don't legitimately become overwhelmed...and that's nowhere near the case for anywhere around here...and even back in April when Houston area hospitals were reporting capacity, it was essentially fraud as they were over-inflating numbers with accounting tactics. I know this straight from people who work in those hospitals. They were getting paid extra per "COVID-19 hospitalization" so they were testing everyone and counting anyone who had been in the hospital for any reason as a "COVID-19 hospitalization" despite the fact that most went to the hospital for other reasons and had been treated and released long before the test results came back.

    Also when it comes to infections, in many ways its better to have a lot of them all at once so long as the hospitalization rate isn't too bad so that the disease will burn itself out.

    "Flattening the curve" is great when there's a legitimate chance of overwhelming the medical infrastructure, but all it does is prolong the pandemic when that's not a legitimate concern. So far NY-NJ early on is about the only time that happened.

    Also when it comes to the raw numbers of people dead, you should keep that in context. There are 600k Americans who will die every single year from COPD or lung cancer. Many of them will now die of COVID-19 instead, but they were going to die this year no matter what. Also the average age of a person dead from COVID-19 is older than. The average life expectancy in this country.

    It's tragic for sure, but trying to get your 95 year old grandmother to die at 96 instead of 95 is not worth the harm that would come from additional shutdowns.
     
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  9. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    But we've been preaching "love the way you look" for a while man.
     
  10. RocketManJosh

    RocketManJosh Contributing Member

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    I understand what you are saying and I completely agree on masks .. the masks rules have been well defined and make sense given the circumstances.

    The rules that I am worried about are things like a 10 PM curfew where I live. There are limits to what we should allow the Government to do. If they are worried about people going to bars, make a rule to close bars (which is already done). Just because they want to prevent people from gathering after 10PM (which again makes no sense because what is special after 10 PM?) does not give them the right to tell me that I can't go for for a drive out to the beach for a walk all by myself at 11PM (which I could be fined for right now). Do you support the governments right to fine me for that in America? If so, we just have a massive disagreement on the scope of Government in America

    To me, its a slippery slope to give the government that much overreach. Masks are a targeted pandemic rule that absolutely makes sense. Just because that makes sense doesn't mean the government can take our freedoms in other areas that have nothing to do with the pandemic.
     
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  11. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    That "oh people who would have died of something else instead died of Covid" argument totally doesn't hold water. There is plenty of research that shows there is significant excess mortality in 2020 and a large proportion of that is due to Covid. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

    In particular, from that article, "adults aged 25–44 years have experienced the largest average percentage increase in the number of deaths from all causes from late January through October 3, 2020." This idea that the disease only affects the elderly portion of our population is wrong.
     
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  12. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    It really does though. A lot of COVID-19 deaths would have occurred this year no matter what, some next year. Some whenever they caught the flu next.

    When the average age of COVID-19 deaths is higher than the average life expectancy, and those dying typically have serious and often potentially fatal comorbidities, we're not talking about people that were buying green bananas.

    Now there's always outliers, but it's important to keep things in perspective. COVID-19 isn't the Spanish Flu where there is a high mortality rate among those under 5 or between 20-40, COVID-19 almost exclusively hits the elderly and those with a foot in the grave already from other serious illnesses.

    It's easy to forget that with all of the great mongering bs being spread
     
  13. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    So reading comprehension isn't your strong point. Got it. I'll break it down for you: all-cause mortality is significantly higher in 2020 than other years. So yes, a lot of Covid deaths occured in patients who would have died this year anyway. But a **significant/excess** number of deaths in 2020 occurred in people who wouldn't have died this year based on typical death rates.

    Again, the death rates in the 25-44 age group are significantly higher this year. That's definitely something to be concerned about.
     
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  14. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton
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    honestly the far left is the worst about this. It’s really disturbing. Yes there are all sorts of natural body types but you don’t find morbidly obese individuals in aboriginal communities- that is not natural. It makes the individual miserable, health-wise, and strains a society’s health resources.
     
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  15. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton
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    well, I remember that and mainly it was a doctor just sharing he hadn’t seen anything like these COVID after-effects. But he did pounce, LOL.

    I think all the disturbing fact denying has made us all a little quick to assume. Anyway, thx for link.
     
    #10335 B-Bob, Nov 23, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2020
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  16. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

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    And what's your magical way to have a lot more infections at once, but not overloading hospitals at the same time?

    Most hospitals worldwide are already nearing their ICU capacities, and that's with extensive lockdowns to flatten the curve, here in Europe countries atm have to work together to send patients to other hospitals, even outside of their home country.

    Your view is just completely unrealistic and unscientific, your shitty local anecdotes aren't representative of the rest of the country and world.
     
  17. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    Since March, I only knew 2 people that tested positive and none that were hospitalized or died. Then, over the last 6 weeks, I know about 2 dozen people that have tested positive, seven people that have died, and another handful that were sick enough to be hospitalized.

    Of the seven that died, most were 70+ years old, but two were middle aged. One was 48 and one was 52, both with 0 underlying conditions.
     
  18. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Two of the leading causes of death among those 25-44 are suicide and homicide, both had significant spikes this year likely related to the mental and economic effects of COVID-19 shutdowns.

    COVID-19 isn't to blame for that, the governments that did that to their people are.

    I was just talking about COVID-19 related deaths.
     
  19. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    That's super convenient for your narrative but can you actually cite anything that backs that up? I've heard and read nothing stating that elevated suicide/homicide rates are the predominant basis for increased all-cause mortality in the 25-44 age range in 2020.
     
  20. gifford1967

    gifford1967 Contributing Member
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    Fatty says you're a liar.
     

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