That's fair, and I have tried different mask types. The only ones that don't seem to bother me are the ones that aren't effective (aesthetic, cloth types). Haven't had the privilege of getting a 3M, and the KN95 masks are okay I guess, but eventually it still bothers me. I get really bad allergies, and my nose, face, ears tends to start itching like crazy. I can't take benadryl (I'm allergic - yes I know it's ridiculous but I am and it's apparently genetic as my mom and son are also), and therefore I stay away from other allergy medications. I still wear a mask, but I'm just saying it gets very uncomfortable after awhile. Apparently experts are now saying it is spread via aerosol. Although the WHO is fighting the acknowledgment. They say it is not a major source of transmission, but who knows... None of those things making breathing more difficult or uncomfortable. I've never worn a hat or sunglasses and felt any difference in my respiration. In addition, wearing a hat doesn't cause my glasses to fog up.
I was speaking in generalities. People who throw COVID parties and act ridiculous should face the music, but let's not act like the majority of people are doing that. In regards to NY, it seems that they were infected earlier and it spread rampantly and uncontrollably a few months ago. Texas is a bit behind in regards to the transmission, so I don't think it's comparing apples to apples. NY honestly didn't do that great of a job either. And to come full circle yes we did "lockdown." It obviously just delayed the outbreak, and didn't make it go away. Sure, we probably re-opened too soon and definitely too quickly, but since you are the expert, how long do we lock down again? Until 2021? Until a vaccine? There are significant issues with lockdowns as well, including thousands of deaths from non-covid reasons that have been well documented. People don't go out for treatment when they are in a lockdown, and many die from very treatable diseases like HTN, DM2, HD, etc... I'm just saying I don't think anything is fullproof nor is there one, universal policy that works for every place on earth (wearing masks notwithstanding).
...I got one of those! ...I believe the technically accurate term for said state is "...great nephew..."... ...but just plain old "nephew" works just the same...
Until vaccine? No. Did other countries lockdown until vaccine? No.Did NY lockdown until vaccine? No. Lockdown until the Ro goes bellow 1. And other patients cant reach hospitals coz of lockdown? Why they can now? When your hospitals and ICUs are flooded, the virus is running rampant , elective surgeries are stopped, and going to the hospital is a sure way to catch it? Just because you arent in lockdown it doesnt mean the virus hasnt spread rampantly and exponentially all around Houston. Whatever happens now is worse than if there was a lockdown. Because at least with a lockdown gradually more space will open for non covi19 patients, and more healthcare workers will be safe and available to give the care needed. There will be more medical amd human resources available, you will not be left without PPEs, beds and nurses. Lockdown is a temporary solution to suppress the spread and keep things controlled so you can return to normal life. Lockdown is the solution not the problem. If you dont lockdown then the virus will not go away, like the late stage cancer of a patient will not be suppressed if he doesnt have chemotherapy. You are at late stage now and refusing treatment will only make things worse not better. But I read in twitter that your mayor plans to do a 2 week lockdown soon so at least your elected officials are not ignorant to the problem.
1. I was under the impression r naught is a fixed number, but apparently it is not and fluctuates due to environmental conditions, so that is good to know. Although I'm not sure how you would calculate r naught in real time like that, so I'm not sure that's an effective way of monitoring a disease. 2. I'm not talking about people not going to hospitals. I'm talking about people not going in to see their PCP, refilling medications (even when this can usually be done on the phone), not going to get cancer treatment, etc. People die from stroke, heart attack, etc, etc, when most could have been prevented with regular disease management. There are plenty of articles detailing the non-economic issues that arise during a lockdown. I'll let you google that. 3. Yes. I'm aware... not sure what your point is. 4. To be fair, at least in Houston, the hospitals being overrun is super overblown in the media. They use headlines like "Houston hospitals at 100% ICU capacity!" Hospitals regularly run at around 90-95% of base ICU capacity. This base capacity is not the same thing as absolute capacity. While the what's going on with the hospital system isn't ideal, it's by no means a catastrophe at this point (although I realize it could get to that point if we don't flatten the curve). I don't disagree that another shutdown may be necessary, but blindly blaming leaders and administration is lazy as hell. The biggest problem we have is that many Americans just don't care enough to listen to authorities and health professionals. It's an unfortunate reality, but it is the one we are living in.
I have had the same question. In the beginning they tried to calculate the Ro as a value characteristic of the pathogen different from the Rt. but after April or so they the CDCs and epidemiologists gave Ro as a value changing locally dependant on measures. Last time I had checked the independent Ro was estimated as 5-7. Anyway..they can calculate it week by week, area by area, city by city. How, i dont know they said they had specific formulas. Now the public and the governments get regular weekly updates of their Ro and take measures depending on that. Local lockdowns, closing of bars, closing of borders etc. They even calculate the weekly Ro of other countries to see if they must allow foreigners. Countries have traffic light lists (green, orange, red) that are updated biweekly or on emergency basis based on others Ro as calculated by their CDCs. Some CDCs have slightly different estimations but its mostly consistent. We calculated that Serbia's Ro had shot through the roof so we immediately cut off access to tourists from there and started deporting them. Then we also calculated that 3 villages and some neighbourhood districts Ro had risen and enforced local lockdowns for 2 weeks. Same with the Uk and Leicester, Australia and Melbourne,Spain and Lugo, Germany and the meat factory area etc etc. Ro is what is in charge to determine who needs extra measures and temporary lockdowns to supress the virus and it is a constant and regular process. Of course I am gping to blame your leaders. Does USA have worse scientists and epidemiologists than other countries? No. Are american more stupid than other people? No. The only difference is leadership. I dont know how many times I have to repeat it. People here are unruly, disobedient and uneducated as well. The leaders instead of washing off their hands, didnwhatever measures they could to make sure there wasnt an armagedon. Media campaigns, propaganda, education, fear, fines, even prison for those knowingly going around infecting others. We do NOT like or are used to wear masks anymore than americans. The government made sure as much as they could, that we do wear them whether we like it or not. We also dont like to pay taxes and the government makes sure we do. Whats the difference?
Covid 19 proved to infect babies in the womb https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/14/baby-boy-infected-with-coronavirus-in-womb
1. I don't know how many times I have to repeat it. American people may not be more stupid, but we are more entitled, and less likely to follow rules and laws that are not commonplace ones we already live with. The biggest issue is the actions of our citizens imo. I actually live here. I walk around and see people not wearing masks or not wearing them properly (despite the fact that we have a mask order in place). Even if they could get arrested for that, it's not like there is an officer on every street corner just waiting to pounce (nor would I want that). The responsibility falls on us. Period. 2. The only difference is not leadership. There are so many factors that play a role in Ro (as you pointed out above). 3. I'm quite happy I live in a place that at this point hasn't resorted to throwing people in prison for not wearing masks. If someone is going around and purposely infecting others that is a huge issue, and they should face the music. However, THIS IS A EXTREME MINORITY OF PEOPLE. Most transmission occurs unknowingly because people don't know they are infected. I was tested and it took 11 freaking days to get the results. This is not an outlier situation. We need faster, more reliable testing.
If you're indoors in public and not wearing a mask, you might as well be purposely infecting others. It's criminal negligence, just as if you text and drive. Of course you don't want to crash your car into someone else's, but your ignorance/selfishness greatly increases the chances of you doing so.
I would agree to an extent although I don't think that is universally true. If I go into my office and close the door and take off my mask I think that's okay. (Fine I'll stop being "well actually" guy) I didn't get the vibe malakas was talking about that though. Referenced "covid parties", etc...
Regardless of how many factors have contributed to our abysmal failure to deal with this pandemic, leadership has been flat out atrocious.
There are those who think TTI is pointless since its out of control and seem to think not wearing masks is 99% of the reason why infections take place. A common theme is by the time a person get confirmation they have COVID, they are already really sick or recovering. With this point of methodology, there is no real point in testing other than to freak out about numbers.
Noone threw anyone in prison for not wearing a mask. Thats a small fine. Arrest and heavy fine (5k€) was for a confirmed positive who was breaking their quarantine. Every country had different punishments, but here it was 5k€ for breaking quarantine , possible prison if found to having infected others, and accused for negligent homocide if those you infected died. Only one citizen ended up in prison due to that. And it matters little if he manages to be sentenced or not, since the measure was to scare others. Public outcry, embarassment, and huge fees in lawyers and trial. We had 1 death total in July and we have been lockdown freed since May. 10 million population. And the gocernment are costantly looking the Ro to stop any resurgence to keep things as safe as now. So as proven lockdowns work and are quite effective. And I dont see how is possible by americans who have their police shooting people no question asked and using tasers and everyone thinks thats normal to whine about fines and emergency laws, that the harshest punishment is arrest.
About how the police can enforce the fines for not mask wearing..even if they arent everywhere in every neighbour.. It doesnt matter. The point is to make it a) extremely incovenient to gonout without a mask b) create the public climate that your own neighbours/ co workers etc will chasticise you for not wearing it and breaking the law. In the UK the police had very limited authority even to give fines - they were directed to first give advice and only upon second offenders or refusal to comply to fine and their fines were literally small change. Like 10 dollars. At first it was questioned how this could work but after some point, after the first week, the majority of the public was forced to comply. You dont need 100% compliance. If the majority wear masks thats enough.
I'm not sure I 100% agree with your conclusion, but I agree that it's problematic at the minimum. NBA bubble is testing staff and players either daily or every other day and gettin results back daily. That is what society at large needs to function, and not even function normally, but close to normal with many precautions. I've stated this before, but I just can't reiterate enough how much of an absolute supply chain failure testing has been when this problem has apparent for over 4 months. It is ridiculous that some people are waiting 7 to 12 (or even more) days to get results. IDGAF that the 15 min test is only 85% accurate and the 45 min test is 97% accurate when the drawbacks of waiting are worse in my opinion. If the 100% test has a 7+ day waiting period for results, plus the fact that you can miss the infection window when it shows up in your system, it just creates all sorts of havoc. The end goal needs to be ubiqutious, affordable, 15 min and 45 min testing. Abbott, Cephid and the federal government has failed on that front tremendously. Get a test, get your results immediately, and get another test before big events like going to party or a work event - that's the future that we need in order to operate. All the major sports are not going to have 7+ day waiting periods when they resume.
Regardless of whether immunity is retained for the infected, plasma treatment relies 100% on the number of antibodies in the blood. Someone that has been infected has the ability to produce new antibodies due to memory cells. Someone with transferred antibodies from plasma does not develop the ability to generate new antibodies - they only get what they are given. I dont see how you can make the numbers work to make this viable. Out of 3 million cases, how many have had it within the window to still have antibodies in the plasma? How many are willing to sit around having their plasma drained? How many protective doses can you safely pull out of someone before they have health issues? Just a completely off-the-cuff guess but it seems like youd only be able to wring out somewhere between tens of thousands to maybe hundreds of thousands of doses without imprisoning recovered people and milking them dry of their plasma. If you were pharaoh and had a million infected slaves, itd be great. For a country of 325 million with 3 million confirmed infected, not so much.
If there was faster, more reliable testing we wouldn't have as much of an issue with people only finding out once they are recovering/recovered. I think it's pretty insane that it takes so long. I'll give you an example of why faster testing would help: Someone at your work tests positive. You decide to get tested to be safe even if you feel fine. While you wait over a week for results you could be infecting others without knowing. That is a big problem, and one that happens quite frequently. Testing is not useless, but it's terrible right now and it's inexcusable. Didn't Israel just invent a breath test that has results in 1 min? Even if it has a low specificity that would still be better than what we have right now.
"Oook....... sure. Everyone believes that the overall increase of deaths in the state from previous years are from everything but COVID19. You all have fun over there."
Those of us that are blaming leadership are not doing so blindly. We have a legitimate argument as to why we believe leadership failed. It's not a lazy approach, it's the truth. As @malakas said, stupid people are everywhere. Entitled people are everywhere as well. This isn't an isolated case to our country. You are correct, we can't have a cop at every street corner handing out tickets. We can't arrest everybody not following the rules. We can't imprison everyone that doesn't comply. However, leadership can ask people to abide by a set of rules. If population fails to listen, then more stringent measures need to be taken such as putting temporary laws in place to force the majority of people to comply. Obviously, not every single individual will comply, but we know that most will abide by the rules if rules are put in place. That falls on leadership. There other reasons for our failure, but leadership is a huge part of it and it isn't a lazy argument when you see other countries defeating the virus. I am with you, I think we have a bunch of entitled brats in this country due to our freedom culture, but as we've seen in the past, you put a couple of rules in place and people will mostly follow.
