I think the example below supports your view that pre/asymptomatic patients can easily be a big driver of the spread. I read this case had started a month ago and the spread hasn't stopped since. May 13, 2020 .... Officials in Incheon, right next to Seoul, were on high alert Wednesday when it was revealed that a 25-year-old Korean hagwon (cram school) instructor in Yonghyeon-dong, Michuhol District, tested positive for the coronavirus last Saturday after visiting King Club from the night of May 2 to the early morning of May 3, some 24 hours after the Yongin man went. The Incheon hagwon teacher did not feel any symptoms of the coronavirus but got tested last Friday anyway upon hearing news about the cluster and received his positive results the next day. What created controversy in Incheon, however, is the fact that he initially lied about being a hagwon instructor and told Incheon health officials he was “unemployed,” the city’s office said Wednesday. Upon realizing that his testimony didn’t match his claimed travel history, Incheon officials said they asked police for help in tracking his mobile phone GPS history and used that information to pressure the instructor to tell the truth. He then confided he teaches at Seum Hagwon in Michuhol District and is a private tutor in Yeonsu District, Incheon. Health officials informed his students and colleagues and ran virus tests on them, and at least 11 showed positive results so far: five high school students and a colleague at his hagwon; the middle school student he tutors, her twin brother, mom and the sibling’s other tutor; and an acquaintance. Contract tracing is ongoing, but Incheon officials said at least two people the hagwon instructor transmitted the virus to had gone to different churches lately, sparking fears of further transmissions. The two Presbyterian churches are the Palbok Church in Michuhol District and the Onsarang Church in Dong District, Incheon. https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2020/05/13/socialAffairs/virus-coronavirus-Covid19/20200513194400163.html
The W.H.O. walked back an earlier assertion that asymptomatic transmission is ‘very rare.’ A top expert at the World Health Organization on Tuesday walked back her earlier assertion that transmission of the coronavirus by people who do not have symptoms is “very rare.” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, who made the original comment at a W.H.O. briefing on Monday, said that it was based on just two or three studies and that it was a “misunderstanding” to say asymptomatic transmission is rare globally. “I was just responding to a question, I wasn’t stating a policy of W.H.O. or anything like that,” she said. Dr. Van Kerkhove said that the estimates of transmission from people without symptoms come primarily from models, which may not provide an accurate representation. “That’s a big open question, and that remains an open question,” she said. Scientists had sharply criticized the W.H.O. for creating confusion on the issue, given the far-ranging public policy implications. Governments around the world have recommended face masks and social distancing measures because of the risk of asymptomatic transmission. A range of scientists said Dr. Van Kerkhove’s comments did not reflect the current scientific research. “All of the best evidence suggests that people without symptoms can and do readily spread SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19,” scientists at the Harvard Global Health Institute said in a statement on Tuesday. “Communicating preliminary data about key aspects of the coronavirus without much context can have tremendous negative impact on how the public and policymakers respond to the pandemic.” A widely cited paper published in April suggested that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of symptoms, and estimated that 44 percent of new infections are a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Dr. Van Kerkhove and other W.H.O. experts reiterated the importance of physical distancing, personal hygiene, testing, tracing, quarantine and isolation in controlling the pandemic.
Thx but I don't have a view per se. It just didn't make much sense that WHO would state something this impactful and not have data with it when there were already good establish data of large spread by those without symptoms. Turns out, it's out of context (hello media, and again, it was a live session) and was a miscommunication; or ppl misunderstood what she was saying.
WHO needs to get on the same page and follow a chain of command before randomly realising info after months of established policy. Really confusing to just drop that little factoid off without fully confirming it.
Interesting bit of news - Harvard study potentially indicates outbreak was happening as early as last August! https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...y-have-been-in-wuhan-in-august-study-suggests
The US is now below the threshold for excess deaths in the CDC reporting. You can scroll thru and look at all the different states and stuff. I still think Texas has under reported covid deaths by a couple thousand or so. Texas is still seeing elevated numbers of over 75 and over 85 dying compared to the rest of the US. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm Anyhow....check it out. edited for clarity
Yeah man.... it was wild. My airport (Portland) prob had less than 300 people total and I only saw maybe 4 people without masks. As soon as I landed and got off the jetway in PHX it was a complete 180. Airport was packed and maybe 15% of the people were wearing masks. Everywhere/everything was super busy as they had just started opening up a few days before I got there. Masks were pretty much non-existent there (5% maybe). I heard they locked down late and opened early in comparison to other major cities too. I’m not surprised AZ has had a major spike recently. They don’t give a **** there. My biggest takeaway? I was in the camp in believing that there’s a correlation between warm weather and low numbers. Nope. It was about 95 everyday and even got up to 110 on one. Can’t imagine what the next couple weeks are going to look like everywhere with everything that’s happened.
Sad account from a frontline healthcare worker in SF, where we allegedly have things “under control.” Says it is “heartbreaking” and leading to uptick in suicides in healthcare. Also can’t believe people in town are walking around like they don’t care anymore. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea...m)&utm_source=share-by-email&utm_medium=email
This is just the bill for the memorial day partying from the re-opening, all groovy baby. The protests ones will be due around June 23 and on, either we will have to file for bankruptcy or find out that the virus has weakened.
Absolutely - and it's been great. In the times I've had to fly commercial, the flights have been around 60% full. Airports in the South have around 1/3rd of the people wearing masks, airports in the Northeast have around 90% of people still demonstrating sphincter-contractions and wearing masks. You do have to wear masks during the flight, although enforcement is lax. On private planes, face masks are a joke. At this stage, the risk to healthy people under age 65 is super low. Other threats that we voluntarily ignore daily are riskier.
WHO doesn't know jack. Weren't they getting about a billion a year? How many wells have they dug with that money? Were they stockpiling PPEs for such a time as this? Didn't cluchfans break the news before they knew? I'd love to see an audit on how they blew through that money.
