I've yet to do my fantasy baseball research, but I'm in a rotisserie NL-only league and while my draft is still 2 weeks away (hence my procrastination on my research), I've been asked to make "keeper" picks today. I'm one of 4 new teams in the league. As such, the new teams get to pick a keeper and a "bonus keeper" (someone you have to trade or cut by Week 15). I have the 4th pick in the keepers list and the top pick in the bonus keepers list. So I have to provide my top 4 in order out of the keepers, and just one bonus keeper. At first glance, I'm looking at Orlando Cabrera, Josh Beckett, Kevin Milwood, Mike Lowell and Preston Wilson in the keepers. Livan Hernandez or Dontrelle Willis have my eye as my bonus keeper pick. If this is interrupting anyone's draft or their ideas, please feel free to let me know. I'll lock this thread and ask people to email me some advice NORMAL KEEPERS: Alou, Moises LF CHC Ausmus, Brad C HOU Beckett, Josh SP FLA Beltre, Adrian 3B LA Benson, Kris SP PIT Biggio, Craig CF HOU Burrell, Pat LF PHI (1 year of keeper eligibility left) Cabrera, Orlando SS MON Casey, Sean 1B CIN Castilla, Vinny 3B COL Clement, Matt SP CHC Drew, J.D. RF ATL Dunn, Adam LF CIN Encarnacion, Juan RF LA Finley, Steve CF ARI Fogg, Josh SP PIT Gonzalez, Alex S. SS CHC Gonzalez, Alex SS FLA Grissom, Marquis CF SF Hampton, Mike SP ATL Hidalgo, Richard RF HOU Ishii, Kazuhisa SP LA Jensen, Ryan RP SF Johnson, Charles C COL Kearns, Austin RF CIN Lawrence, Brian SP SD Lee, Derrek 1B CHC Lieberthal, Mike C PHI Lowell, Mike 3B FLA McGriff, Fred 1B LA Mesa, Jose RP PHI Millwood, Kevin SP PHI (1 year of keeper eligibility left) Myers, Brett SP PHI Ohka, Tomo SP MON Padilla, Vicente SP PHI Payton, Jay LF SD Peavy, Jake SP SD Penny, Brad SP FLA Ramirez, Aramis 3B CHC Ramirez, Horacio SP ATL Redding, Tim SP HOU Roberts, Dave CF LA Rueter, Kirk SP SF (1 year of keeper eligibility left) Rusch, Glendon SP MIL Sheets, Ben SP MIL Snow, J.T. 1B SF Trachsel, Steve SP NYM Wilkerson, Brad B. LF MON Williams, Mike RP PHI Williams, Woody SP STL Wilson, Preston CF COL Womack, Tony SS CHC BONUS KEEPERS: Biddle, Rocky RP MON Borowski, Joe RP CHC Burnitz, Jeromy LF COL Byrd, Marlon CF PHI Chacon, Shawn SP COL Chavez, Endy CF MON Choi, Hee Seop 1B FLA Clayton, Royce SS MIL Cordero, Wil SS FLA Duckworth, Brandon SP HOU Eaton, Adam SP SD Ensberg, Morgan 3B HOU Feliz, Pedro 3B SF Foppert, Jesse SP SF Good, Andrew SP ARI Grudzielanek, Mark 2B CHC Hart, Bo 2B STL Hernandez, Livan SP MON Hillenbrand, Shea 1B ARI Isringhausen, Jason RP STL Jenkins, Geoff LF MIL Jennings, Jason SP COL Jimenez, D'Angelo 2B CIN Kata, Matt 2B ARI LaRue, Jason C CIN Looper, Braden RP NYM Loretta, Mark 2B SD Matheny, Mike C STL Mondesi, Raul RF ARI Nady, Xavier RF SD Oliver, Darren SP FLA Pavano, Carl SP FLA Phillips, Jason L. 1B NYM Podsednik, Scott CF MIL Reyes, Jose SS NYM Reynolds, Shane SP ARI Robertson, Jeriome SP HOU Sanders, Reggie RF STL Simon, Randall 1B CHC Simontacchi, Jason RP STL Spivey, Junior 2B MIL Stynes, Chris 3B PIT Torrealba, Yorvit C SF Valverde, Jose RP ARI Vargas, Claudio SP MON Ventura, Robin 3B LA Villone, Ron SP HOU Wigginton, Ty 3B NYM Williams, Jerome SP SF Willis, Dontrelle SP FLA Wilson, Vance C NYM Worrell, Tim RP PHI In case you need to know how scoring worked in the league, this is it: <table width=400 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=1 border=0><tr align=left bgcolor=999999><td colspan=2><b>Scoring for Batting Categories</b></td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>2B - Doubles</td><td align=left>.5 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>3B - Triples</td><td align=left>.5 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>BB - Walks (Batters)</td><td align=left>.25 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>CS - Caught Stealing</td><td align=left>-1 point</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>CYC - Hitting for the Cycle</td><td align=left>5 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>E - Errors</td><td align=left>-1.5 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>GDP - Ground Into Double Plays</td><td align=left>-1 point</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>H - Hits</td><td align=left>1 point</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>HR - Home Runs</td><td align=left>1.25 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>IB - Intentional Walks</td><td align=left>.5 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>KO - Strikeouts (Batter)</td><td align=left>-.75 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>OFAST - OF Assists</td><td align=left>.75 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>R - Runs</td><td align=left>.25 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>RBI - Runs Batted In</td><td align=left>.75 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>SB - Stolen Bases</td><td align=left>1 point</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>SF - Sacrifice Flies</td><td align=left>.25 points</td></tr><tr><td colspan=2><img src=http://images.commissioner.com/images/dot_clear.gif width=1 height=10></td></tr><tr align=left bgcolor=999999><td colspan=2><b>Scoring for Pitching Categories</b></td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>BBI - Walks Issued (Pitchers)</td><td align=left>-.25 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>BS - Blown Saves</td><td align=left>-2 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>CG - Complete Games</td><td align=left>2 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>ER - Earned Runs</td><td align=left>-1 point</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>HRA - Home Runs Allowed</td><td align=left>-.5 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>INN - Innings</td><td align=left>1 point</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>K - Strikeouts (Pitcher)</td><td align=left>.5 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>L - Losses</td><td align=left>-3 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>NH - No-Hitters</td><td align=left>5 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>QS - Quality Starts</td><td align=left>3 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>S - Saves</td><td align=left>4 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>SO - Shutouts</td><td align=left>2 points</td></tr><tr height=17 bgcolor=bbbbbb align=right valign=middle><td align=left>W - Wins</td><td align=left>4 points</td></tr><tr><td colspan=2><img src=http://images.commissioner.com/images/dot_clear.gif width=1 height=10></td></tr></table>
IMHO you should grab pitchers, based on that scoring setup. Josh Beckett Kevin Millwood Brad Penny Brett Myers Woody Williams Bonus: Livan Hernandez Jerome Williams Dontrelle Willis
Clutch, I've never been big on keeper leagues, but I would recommend Josh Beckett for your regular keeper. He's young and has the most upward mobility of anyone on that list. He has the best shot at being productive not only this year, but for many years to come. It's no sure thing, but he's the best bet of those you listed. The bonus keeper situation is a bit trickier. I would like to know how many teams are in your league before making a recommendation. Not at all. I wish there were more discussions like this in the fantasy forum.
'Finn, fadeaway -- much appreciated advice ... thanks. There are 10 teams in the league. If you take a "keeper", he is your 6th round pick. If you take a bonus keeper, then he is your 7th round pick. I don't have to take any player if I don't want to, but I'm sure there are people worth taking. I have the 2nd pick in the draft in the normal draft, so I'll take Helton or Prior - whoever doesn't go #1 (Pujols is already a keeper). Sportsline has projected numbers for some of these players (just projections of course): KEEPERS: Kevin Milwood: 290.2 fantasy points (only has 1 year left of keeper eligibility) Josh Beckett: 285.2 Orlando Cabrera: 284.0 Woody Williams: 258.9 Mike Lowell: 254.8 Preston Wilson: 250.2 Brett Myers: 231.8 Brad Penny: 230.2 I'm pretty sure Cabrera will go #1 from what I'm told. You guys are definitely right I think about the pitchers, but in an NL-only league I would bet Cabrera's position makes him much more valuable. BONUS: Dontrelle Willis: 256.5 Jerome Williams: 243.3 Livan Hernandez: 229.8 Man, I thought the bonus pick would be easier ... that I'd probably take Willis. But he did tail off at the end and they lost Pudge.
Depending on your roster requirements, I would give serious thought to Isringhausen as your bonus keeper pick. I'm not so high on Dontrelle, Livan or Jerome, but Izzy should perform quite nicely if he stays healthy (which I think he will). RP is a position that people neglect all too often, but is a crucial element to most successful teams. For the record, Isringhausen went in the 6th round of our league. Willis went late in the 9th, Hernandez mid 8th.
Another consideration for Bonus Keeper is Podsednik. He steals bases draws walks and doesn't have a lot of the bad stuff (except k's). He might be a consideration if you go with something besides pitcher. Also I thought Jerome Willimas played for the Bulls
Mixed 12 team league, so values will not exactly correspond. Izzy does seem to be going a round or two earlier than those pitchers in most mocks I have seen, though. I can really only offer you a viewpoint from a mixed perspective, since I have never played in a NL only league.
I'd keep Beckett out of the regular keepers. If not beckett, than Preston Wilson, Mike Lowell or Derrek Lee. Then Millwood, then Aramis Ramirez. In that order. As your bonus keeper, keep Reyes, especially since he will be eligible at 2b(incredibly weak) and shortstop this year. Ensberg is my 2nd choice, with Willis 3rd and Williams 4th. But Reyes is the clear choice there if you can get him.
Surprised that Mark Prior was not on your list of normal keepers and bonus keepers. But I would go with Beckett out of the ones you named as my keeper.
I think you're right on with your first keeper picks with Willis or Podsednik as the bonus picks. Podsednik has the ability to put you at the top of stolen bases in roto almost by himself, he is prolly top three-five in baseball.
Wow - thanks for the help fellas. I just got word that Beckett is going #1 in the keeper draft. That's all I know. I am having a bear of a time ordering these 4 after Beckett: Millwood, Lowell, Preston Wilson, Cabrera. I really have to pick just 3 in order and I'm guaranteed one of the three. The more I think about it, the more Cabrera scares me (and I think that's why the top person changed their mind). He's a free agent at year's end, plays for a garage sale club in the Expos and could get traded to the AL and he no longer has a big bat like Vlad behind him. Also, we don't play SS and 2B like I thought. Instead we have two middle infielder (MI) positions... so technically I "could" play two 2B. But it's not like the NL is loaded at either position. As for the BONUS keeper: I want to take Willis, but his play at the end of the year and playoffs scares the bejeesus out of me. Livan Hernandez was awesome (particularly for this league) last year, but I don't know if he can do that again. Funny you mention Jose Reyes, DVauthrin ... I was wondering about him also. My guess is Prior will go #1 in the regular draft, leaving me Helton. So trying to figure out the right combo for these picks. As for pitchers, we play during the week 4 starters and a reliever.
I'd order them Wilson, then Millwood, then Lee, then Lowell. Lowell has elbow issues, Wilson plays in Coors so he will be pretty safe to pick if healthy, Millwood could be an ace or just be slightly above average, and Lee should do .270-.280, 30, 100. As far as Reyes goes. For one clutch, this is willis's 2nd year. I'm looking for a sophomore slump as the league gets used to him. Ensberg I like a lot as a hitter, but the reason I like Reyes more is there is a dearth of quality middle infield options in the NL and he should score runs, steals and avg in that mets lineup. In my opinion you can't go wrong with either Reyes or Ensberg. I just think Reyes has a higher long term upside.
If you go for pitchers why not grab Prior, or Rivera, I dont know, maybe I dont know what I am talking about since I didnt read the whole thread and those pitchers might not fit well for this leauge.
