Averages... but it skews depending on who is taking the shot... If your low post dunk machine is getting pushed out and settling for 8 ft jumpers - it's prob not gonna be pretty... if your shooting guard can shake his man at the arc, get around him and get a nice wide open look for an 8 ft jumper - that's probably gonna work out just fine....
Only twos being shot , other than harden, will be Paul and melo. I'd take all three shooting the majority of your teams 2s while everyone else has the green light from 3.
I am sure some analytics would show us that Ryan Anderson is more efficient shooting contested on the road than uncontested at home.
2016-2017 NBA league average stats: 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% 9.7 27.0 .358 29.4 58.4 .503 These translate into: 1.074 points/3PA 1.006 points/2PA As the average points/shot attemps are pretty close between 3PA and 2PA, I seriously doudt that the numbers from the OP link are of NBA data. I still think contested 3s are not better than open twos, unless there are some new NBA numbers tell me otherwise.
If you have missed your last 15 contested 3 pointers then taking the open 2 would be a wiser course of action if you really just need some points. Now of course that is also assuming that is what the defense is giving you. The argument that 2-point jump shots should never be taken is very close minded and short sighted. Sometimes the situation calls for a higher percentage shot than a 3-ball (and it doesn't always have to be a layup.)
2pt shots include layups and dunks. Those high percentage shots jack up the overall average. DeAndre Jordan led the league in FG percentage. Nobody would mistake him as a great shooter. We are talking about midrange 2pt shots.
I'd like to see Curry's contested 3's vs open 2's stats rather than a league wide stat. Of course, he barely takes any open 2's like you said.
Okay. The averages over an 82-game regular season show this. In the playoffs, which are quite different and where opponents make tactical adjustments to your style of play with every game, I'm still not convinced that our system of extreme reliance on the threes is going to carry us through each unique battle. If the threes are dropping, by God, rain 'em down. I just want multiple backup plans for when one or more guy's shot is off for the night or the arc is defended well or something unforeseen.
Stats must always be qualified with context. The example in the OP is based on a lot of aggregated data. What this means: the conclusion we can draw is that your offense should generally favor 3's over 2's. What this does not mean: this data will be true in all circumstances. (For example, when the Rockets face a team in the playoffs that completely locks down the 3 point line for long periods of time.) To draw a more usable conclusion on the latter, we would need to see these stats adjusted for "Spurs/Warriors playoff opponents", specifically.
The point is the GM's biggest job is knowing who is good who is not. And that is what makes Morey good.
It all depends upon what the definition of a "Contested shot" is......Is it like someone jumping in your face at the same time? Or is it a guy who gets a hand up late after you have released the shot? It all starts with the quality of data going into the pipe....as to the reality of the accuracy of the result. DD
