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Contest 3s are better than open 2s

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Air Langhi, Jul 31, 2017.

  1. Normalus

    Normalus Member

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    Am I getting it wrong or do they say, that NBA players can't even make 2 of 4 open mid-range shots? BS if so..
     
  2. brewer's goat

    brewer's goat Member

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    Our offense kinda struggled against OKC too. Taking contested threes is just not a winning formula, especially during the playoffs where every single game matters. Law of averages don't always work in your favor in small sample sizes.
     
  3. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    not bs. see ricky rubio
     
  4. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Which is why you increase volume.

    Taking a contested three will always be better than to take a long 2 when you are bad at it and that's what the stat is showing. Taking the midrange is what teams WANT us to do, because the metrics back up the fact that teams lose out even more that way.
     
  5. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    He isn't saying that. He is saying that contested threes are more valuable points wise than an open midrange for two.
     
  6. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    #26 heypartner, Jul 31, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2017
    don grahamleone likes this.
  7. Normalus

    Normalus Member

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    There are numbers in the tweet as well & it's 0.85 points per open mid-range shot, which means they don't even hit half of the open shots. That's not true.
    For every Rubio-like player who hits, at worst, 35% of them, there is Gasol-like player, who hits about 70-80% of open mid-range 2's..guess who has more attempts &
     
  8. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    don't think its that high but when you get a gasol like player then you obviously allow some mid range shots. let us know when hou gets that
     
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  9. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Well, if the question is are there more players that are terrible at midrange than players that are good at it, then I would definitely lean towards more sucking at it. There is also the question of sample size as well. In hindsight though, I do recall seeing people bricking more than they hit from midrange, players like CP3 excluded.
     
    #29 chenjy9, Jul 31, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2017
  10. Clown Baby

    Clown Baby Member

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    The players taking Contested 3s: Some of the best shooters in the league
    The players takings Open 2s: Some of the worst shooters in the league
     
  11. kubli9

    kubli9 Member

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    [​IMG]
    Would that also mean he'd make 1 on 2 shots, or 3 on 6? What would happen if he took 7????
     
  12. brewer's goat

    brewer's goat Member

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    good point
     
  13. Normalus

    Normalus Member

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    Does that make Corey Brewer one of the best shooters?
     
  14. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Some people legitimately can't count fractions. :p If he took 7 shots, clearly he would have to cut the ball in half.
     
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  15. Normalus

    Normalus Member

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    I doubt he can do that in 24 seconds.
     
  16. OTMax

    OTMax Member

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    Not buying it, open 2 over contested 3 any day of the week except if your name is Curry, Klay, Korver etc.
     
  17. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title

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    I'd think that there is no difference between that on a 3 pointer and a shot just inside the 3.

    But I would also think there is a difference between an elbow jumper and a Ryan Anderson type 30' shot.
     
  18. ISOBall

    ISOBall Member

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    10/10 factual thread used analytics amazing
     
  19. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title

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    Yeah that's point. I think that only looking at PPS is foolish because the style of offense you play directly impacts your defense.

    Now I obviously don't think Morey and Co ignore the impact on D of a 3pt trigger happy offense. I would just like to see if there are some numbers out there though about this topic.
     
  20. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    That's a good question. The impression I get of analytics and shot tracking in the NBA has always been that it's in its infancy stages outside of a select few teams.
     

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