132 per game is almost certainly way too much. You have to bear in mind that there are only 240 mpg available to be distributed each game, and you're basing things off an unprecedented 14 man rotation. Don't let the ESPN Team Stats page fool you - the Team PPG average is not the sum of the players' individual averages. Add them up and you'll get a sum as high as 3 times the actual team ppg. Yao - Miller - Hill Scola - Patterson - Hayes - Jeffries - Johnson Ariza - Battier Martin - Budinger - Taylor Brooks - Lowry Scrub Hayes, Jeffries, Johnson, and Taylor automatically. They don't play unless someone (if not several people) are out, and then their contributions will probably represent drops versus the original person. SF - SG - PG minutes will probably look similar to how they did in March/April, with Battier the only guy likely to see a big drop in his role. Brooks: 32 mpg Lowry: 20 mpg Martin: 32 mpg Budinger: 15 mpg Ariza: 30 mpg Battier: 15 mpg PF/C minutes are going to be wildly dependent on Yao. I'm going to peg him as 15 mpg for now. Scola's minutes drop, because he isn't covering center half the game. Hill is going to have to really show something to get on the court because of the huge logjam up front. Yao: 15 mpg Miller: 22 mpg Hill: 10 mpg Scola: 36 mpg Patterson: 12 mpg Now you can start making worthwhile production forecasts. Keep in mind that additional shot-takers on the floor will reduce the number of attempts Brooks, Martin, Scola, and Ariza had last year. Brooks: 18 ppg Lowry: 7 ppg Martin: 19 ppg Budinger: 8 ppg Ariza: 12 ppg Battier: 5 ppg Scola: 14 ppg Patterson: 5 ppg Yao: 8 ppg Miller: 8 ppg Hill: 4 ppg ---------------------- 108 ppg (Team total) Knock this down a peg because of injuries (Martin missing 15 games or Brooks missing 5 or whatever) 90% = 97 PPG That's 5 lower than last year, but bear in mind that Yao and Miller will slow down the pace and lean us more towards a halfcourt game than before. It's also just pure speculation. [ex. if you sum Brooks, Lowry, Martin, Chase, Ariza, Battier, Scola, Hill, Hayes, and Andersen from last year you get 114 ppg. Lob off 10% and you have 102.6 vs the true team average of 102.4]
If we only play 5 players each game, and we rotate the players that get in each game, we could probably boost our team PPG to well over 200. The Rockets need to seriously consider this strategy.
I think you're forgetting about play time factored into this and rosters. Adelman likes playing nine guys per game. Also, not everyone will be playing as much time as they usually do if more men play.
All I've been hearing on the radio lately is that we're going to be lucky to even be a playoff team this upcoming season. But really, I don't understand why so many people are writing us off? I admit I'm not statistician, but I put together some PPG predictions.. which I feel are actually pretty conservative. Brooks - 16 ppg Martin - 16 ppg Ariza - 13 ppg Scola - 15 ppg Yao - 14 ppg Starting 5 PPG = 74 Lowry - 8 ppg Bud - 10 ppg JT - 6 ppg Battier - 6 ppg Patterson - 6 ppg Hill - 6 ppg Hayes - 4 ppg Miller - 8 ppg Jeffries - 4 ppg Bench PPG = 58 Total PPG = 132 Averaging 132 PPG is unrealistic is it not? I guess my point is that our team seems balanced enough this year to get deep into the playoffs without a "superstar" (Yao Ming?). What are your thoughts? Did I give any player more credit than they deserve? I tried to take into consideration the touches Yao would be taking away. I also understand these PPG predictions are very very dumbed down since I'm only looking at one stat.
Man how I wish there was an edit option sometimes. Oh well, it's good for the ego to make yourself look like an idiot.
We should make a lot roster moves during the season. The cumulative PPG will go way up. If we play 12 different guys each game, our PPG will actually equal our total points for the season!
I think you have nailed it. Though you did not factor in Yao's reduced minutes early in the season. But as you can see in my graph, by the end of the season we will explode and easily reach the 132 ppg average.
