Awesome, I make a reference to a song from 50 years ago and you come back with something that I only know exists because South Park made fun of it a couple of weeks ago. In the wise words of Sgt. Roger Murtaugh: Fun fact: Danny Glover was 41 years old when he was too old for that ****
Tis apartment complex fire in Hong Kong is terrible. Deaths will probably reach triple digits. When I first saw the photos I couldn't imagine how multiple buildings could be fully engulfed in flames from ground to roof. Even the worst cladding would not create that kind of fire behavior unless several fires were started at the same time. However, once I read that the buildings were undergoing renovations and were encased in bamboo and nylon scaffolding, it made sense. Here's a photo that shows fires starting on the scaffolding of the buildings that aren't yet smoking. Likely from ember wash and/or radiant heat. Once a little gets lit, embers drop to the ground and start fires that want to climb the scaffolding fast. It seems bamboo scaffolding is a cultural thing in Hong Kong and there has been resistance to moving over to metal. I'm guessing that will happen now. For reference, here's a photo of a different building completely covered with bamboo scaffolding and yeah, that would burn.
As an architect and with family in Hong Kong I’ve been following this fire closely. I will be in Hong Kong in a week and a half and plan on visiting the scene of the fire. Here are my thoughts on the what might’ve have caused the Hong Kong fire to be so deadly. The latest news im seeing is that the death toll is still 128 with dozens still missing. This death toll is likely to rise. Eight people have now been arrested in association with this fire. The cause of the fire, why it spread so fast, and was so deadly is still uncertain. As an architect who has done damage assessment and disaster response I am cautious to jump to any conclusion but it is likely that there are multiple factors. Modern buildings have multiple systems that are redundant and work together to protect the inhabitants in the case of a disaster. In the case of something like this there either multiple systems have gone down and/or there is a failure in redundancy. For example the plane strikes on the World Trade Center towers were the triggering event but the towers collapsed because of failures in both the fire protection and structural redundancy. Here is my analysis of a few factors that may have led this to be as terrible as it was: When the fire broke out the complex was being renovated and bamboo scaffolding was around the buildings. This is a very common and widespread in Asia and when done properly bamboo scaffolding is as strong as steel scaffolding. Bamboo is combustible and measures are meant to be taken to limit how combustible it is. There are reports that the contractor might not have taken those measures. There was a lot of green plastic netting around the building. This is another commonly used construction material and is there to catch construction debris from falling from the site. It is even more flammable than bamboo and measures are meant to be taken to reduce its flammability. It is sounding like some of these measures weren’t taken. There are a lot of reports that styrofoam panels were placed over the windows as part of the renovation. These are both very flammable but from survivor accounts blocked the view of residents in other buildings from seeing the fire early delaying evacuation. I’ve posted a floor plan of a typical floor of the buildings. While I don’t have a scale from what I know of Hong Kong buildings is that each of the apartments are very small compared to American apartments. The floor plan has two fire exits into stairways but it looks like not only are the stair entrances close to each other they appear to be wrap around each other overlapping and likely share a single stair shaft. This design is strongly discouraged in current code because if the shaft is compromised in some way then both stairways are out. It is too early to say if this was a factor in the death toll but it is something that should be looked at. In addition to the individual building layouts the whole complex is very dense with the separate towers close to each other. This is very common in Hong Kong with even very recent developments building towers very close to each other. The closeness of the buildings certainly allows the flames to spread to other buildings it also might have made evacuations difficult as exits too close to each other would have make it harder to fully evacuate each building. There are reports and survivor accounts that the fire alarms and sprinkler systems didn’t go off. This would obviously have contributed to both the death toll and rapid spread of the fire. Many of the inhabitants were elderly and disabled. General practice is to have individuals like that shelter in place during a disaster with staff and emergency personnel assisting with evacuation. Given the speed of the fire and difficulty with the small and narrow layout of the buildings it’s likely that contributed to the death toll. One thing that many don’t understand is that modern fire codes actually aren’t meant to save the buildings but are about the amount of time it takes to evacuate inhabitants. One issue I haven’t seen much discussion on but it could be a factor is ventilation of the buildings. In a building fire often more people die from the smoke than directly from the fire itself. In the case of high rises this is a big issue and corridors and stair towers are supposed to be pressurized to make sure that they can ventilate properly. Also in a multistory building there are supposed to be dampers in the ventilation to prevent the spread of flame and smoke. At the moment it appears this fire was mostly on the exterior of this building but this issue should be looked at if there are many found dead and injured that weren’t close to the flames.
Good post. Thanks. Regarding the fire alarms, they may not have gone off right away because the fire was initially on the outside of the structures. We've seen a similar dynamic in houses where there is no detector in the attic so the roof can be on fire before the alarms are triggered in the living spaces. It also seems a bit crazy to me to put scaffolding up on/renovate all of the buildings in the complex at the same time.
That the fire alarms didn’t go off because the fire was external is definitely a factor that has to be looked at may lead to a change in codes for buildings like this. The practice of renovating a building while still Occupied and doing a whole complex at once is pretty common in Asia. I’ve seen they on several projects in HK, Singapore and other countries. It was even being done on one of my family’s property while I was staying there a few years ago. It has to do with there is a premium on housing so it’s difficult to just move thousands of people. In projects like this it is is easier to do the whole complex at once than stretch it out longer and risk inconveniencing the residents of the complex for a longer period.
Every disaster has some unintended outcomes that can range from good to really bad. Here's an interesting one from Chernobyl, where a fungus has apparently adapted to a radioactive environment: https://www.sciencealert.com/chernobyl-fungus-appears-to-have-evolved-an-incredible-ability
