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Common Criticisms of Moneyball (Sabermetrics)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by crossover, Nov 22, 2015.

  1. crossover

    crossover Contributing Member

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    Do they apply to the Houston Rockets?

    1. Can't judge character or heart.
      I often remember one quote a few years back (can't remember who said it), but it went something like, "The Spurs have a monopoly on good-hearted players." Clearly the Spurs have a decently rigid system with roles but do they weigh heart more than the Rockets when filling those roles?
      -
    2. Can't measure leadership, synergy, and intangibles.
      If you look at the numerous losses in the Rockets start, can any statistics tell the story behind why there was a loss? What if Chuck Hayes or Shane Battier were still on the squad - would that many losses still happen? Robert Horry is quoted saying this about Hakeem in the 1995 WCF.
      Can you measure that with statistics?
      -
    3. Statistics are based on a specific set of static situations and have trouble translating and/or can't predict what will happen in dynamic or fluid ones.
      Ty Lawson was productive as a Denver Nugget. Are you able to ensure his statistics translate when playing with the Rockets next to a ball-dominant Harden? What happens when you need to change the roles of the role players you brought in?
      -
    4. Difficult to get everyone to get on-board a sabermetric system.
      I would argue Phil Jackson and McHale are more similar types of coaches, yet one has had amazing success and another average. Sabermetrics have to get the right coach to make it happen, players that will follow the system, and make moves that provide the most utility. If everything falls in place, that might be a great result - but is it too difficult to get all those pieces in place and working?
      -
    5. Changes the culture of an organization.
      Cuban stuck with Dirk and Buss stuck with Kobe. These by all means were not great moves or about numbers - but they set an example of loyalty and franchise culture. What if you're a 6'8 PF drated by the Rockets? Are all those involved resigned to just 'be professionals' and accept everything that sabermetrics tells you to do, on-court or contractually?
      -
    6. Doesn't factor in enough medical, development, or on-off court influence.
      When was the last time the Rockets drafted a prospect, because talent-wise, he just looked like he was 'a natural'? What about veteran teammates and staff mentoring and training that prospect - how does that change the locker room culture?
      -
    7. Might win regular season games but doesn't win championships.
      Can regular season statistics translate to the small sample size of playoff gameplay and pressure?
     
    3 people like this.
  2. CCity Zero

    CCity Zero Member

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    Probably should have re-signed Smith... Especially since Morey couldn't figure out that the DMo injury was going to be longer... Okay... Maybe not all his fault, but ****, Smith is at least is arguing with Doc, our team basically rolls over atm... Where's the stats on that with chemistry???

    Anyway, good points! And Hakeem didn't need these bull**** stats, lol. I'm all for stats in science, however I haven't seen any results for the Rockets when it matters, so sadly Barkley might have finally thrown enough **** where it finally stuck. Look at all the series Morey has won... Oh right, it's like 3 series.
     
  3. rocketsballin

    rocketsballin Member

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    8. treating the mid range shot like cancer. how many players have gotten cancer after shooting a mid range jumper? are they still alive? have they been cured? do they even have cancer, or do they get off on chucking threes?
     
  4. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Just want to say that a main feature of Moneyball is about salary-cap management, as well. We cannot deny that Morey is great at cap management and finding unique ways to manipulate it...and to remain flexible for when a trade makes itself available, like Lawson.

    That piece of Moneyball should always be included in any discussion of Morey's analytics.

    Morey uses analytics for scouting purposes as much, if not more, than anything else.

    That said, I pretty much agree with everything crossover lays out. Chemistry and coaching has taken a beating under Morey. Morey and Les are not building a balanced management team. They don't include the Coach in decisions regarding player moves like other teams do. And that is why Adelman argued with them.
     
  5. oakdogg

    oakdogg Contributing Member

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    These do not appear to be criticisms of Moreyball. They appear to just be criticisms of statistics in general. Plus, this acts like you choose between measuring stats or measuring character & intangibles. Nobody knows how to measure character & intangibles absolutely, and everyone attempts to. I've never heard a stats guy say they ignore character & intangibles. There is an element of luck involved.
     
  6. CCity Zero

    CCity Zero Member

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    Yes!! Lol, I ****ing wish they'd shoot the damn 2 sometimes, jacking up 50 3's at the ****ty funk they're in doesn't make sense... It's like we love giving easy baskets to the other team when they get a long rebound and actually make a basket...

    Oh well, you gotta know numbers though...

    "3 is more than 2!!!" - Morey

    "No ****?! but what if we miss ****ing 10 3's, do the stats show that it's better than 2 now?!?" - players

    "just shoot the 3!!, **** it, we only need to make the playoffs!!! " - Morey
     
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  7. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Coaches know how to measure character and intangibles. That is pretty much one of their main jobs.

    You seem to be talking about the Draft only. Yeah, that's not an exact science. But knowing the role players you want to keep on your team for chemistry and other role players who you'd like to pursue for leadership and chemistry is what Coaches can do as a great complement to what GMs do.

    But Morey and Les don't seem to care what the Coach thinks.
     
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  8. rocketsballin

    rocketsballin Member

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    srs what kinda ****in idiot thinks its better to chuck 30 threes and make 5, then chuck 50 twos and make half? dumb ****in moron.

    then there's "but harden's the only guy who can make twos"
    so what? cant make threes, draw up some plays for a mid range jumper.

    should be part of the moreyball system. when the threeball isnt working, go for the two.
    dont just chuck threes like an idiot. i dont get how this isnt basic basketball knowlege for them. they should feel dumb as hell not knowing this

    at the very least, mix it up. twos and threes, not just threes
     
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  9. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

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    Insert Clip of Chris Pratt telling Controlling Maniac that you can't control these Raptors. They are not a number on a spreadsheet.
     
  10. KingLeoric

    KingLeoric Member

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    Culture is a big thing. Core team members change every year, drafting young talents only to ship them as assets.

    All in all basketball is not math.
     
  11. oakdogg

    oakdogg Contributing Member

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    I guess I'm not following the accusation against the GM and owner. As I have understood it, the complaint has been regarding the offensive strategy - no midrange, etc. I am not aware of any situation where the GM insisted a certain player get playing time against the coach's wishes.
     
  12. RockingRox

    RockingRox Member

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    Props!

    I've been preaching on the forum that open twos are better than contested threes.
     
  13. el_locoteee

    el_locoteee Member

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    Funny, this year was the year we keep the core together.

    I guess changing was the answer because we got better everytime.
     
  14. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member

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    As Morey always says, it is just a tool, not the end all be all.
     
  15. el_locoteee

    el_locoteee Member

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    What was the criticism with the 05-06 Miami Heat?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDjEFQQZAB4

    How can a great team on paper, with what many agrees is a great coach, started so bad and got the coach fired but went to win the championships.

    Why a team full off veterans supposed great leaders needed a coach change to change their attitude.

    Was moneyball the problem then?
     
  16. OpenLayup-Why3?

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    Can you give examples of NBA players that are "a natural" ?
     
  17. dwhite

    dwhite Member

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    Moreyball works if it is done in coordination with the system the team runs. For example, if you run a shoot 30+ threes a game system and that is all you teach you D-Leaguers (as well) then you need to adjust Moreyball into getting the best 3 point shooters in the game....success will follow. Why the Rockets continue to load up with below average three point shooters is beyond reason.
     
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  18. ROCSFANFROMCAN

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    I understand Moreys Philosophy, threes and layups, I just think that they are at it all wrong. Many people say that Golden State uses a similar tactic and I don't disagree. The main difference between the two teams is Golden State runs offensive sets and has motion and the rockets just chuck threes. Its honestly like watching pick up basketball, no plays just the occasional screen and iso's all day, don't understand this. Bickerstaff or anyone that we have on staff is not the answer for this, you need someone that get set up and offence and hold these players accountable. Not sure who the answer is, but I know its not anyone we have. Sure we may turn this around and people will get excited again but its just going to be fools gold. What we are doing now won't ever win a championship, sucks to say but I believe its trust.
     
  19. rocketsballin

    rocketsballin Member

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    its cuz they're cheap. bev 6mil per. brewer and ariza 8mil per.
    harden cheap max. lawson traded for crap.
    thornton and terry min contract.
    morey loves cheap contracts! SIGN ME TO ONE OF THOSE MURRAY! i'll take a cheap contract

    why dish out the money to get a real shooter when you can get one for cheap?
    its like mcdonalds burgers. why pay 10 dollars for a sexy double bacon cheeseburger, when you can just go to mcdonalds and get a double cheeseburger for less than 2 dollars? YOU'D BE CRAZY TO PASS THAT UP!
    or at least, thats what morey thinks
     
  20. ths balla

    ths balla Member

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    Fans are so fickle lol 14 games into the season and now everyone wants to question the strategy of the GM after a WCF birth. There is no way that in one post someone could fully describe the ins and outs and nuances that go into what they look for in a player. And to just say character and intangibles is overlooked is just absurd, there is a reason why they have a very presence like Terry on the team as well as 2 other guys with rings in Brewer and Ariza.
     

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