[ClutchFans] What we learned from the Asik trade that wasn't

I threw this gasol trade around for the same reasons you stated a month ago and got nothing but negative feedback. It's good to a big dog around CF feels the same way. With that being said we still have to make sure this team doesn't need Lin & asik before that deal goes down, but at the same time I understand the business side of the deal like I've stated before with morey signing Canaan & Camby during the off season, it's been part of his plan to have that cap space.

Also the Patterson trade is something I bumped a thread about this summer after we got Howard, on how it would be perfect if we could have him and still keep asik & Lin.

great post we think alike about the trades at this point.

 

The problem with Gasol is the contract. It's a $19 million expiring deal. LA would probably love to have Asik without Lin...at least until the 2014 off season is completed. I'm sure they'd love Lin but Asik and Lin on the cap means no Melo/James opportunity.

And on our end, Gasol is not going to accept a non-guaranteed extension so that we can use him as trade fodder in 2014.

Keep this in mind. IF there is a trade of Asik OR Lin before or at the deadline, and it doesn't involve us getting back a star-level player directly, it will likely involve us getting back a large expiring contract that has agreed to a large non-guaranteed extension with a small buyout that allows us to essentially hold that contract throughout the summer of 2014.

 

The only thing learned is that if you are going to dish out a contract with a poison pill, you'd better get ready to swallow it yourself.:grin:

 

1. Asik not giving 100% is a concern for sure. But as Morey have said many times with regard to the draft, the biggest risk that you take is a guy not being good at basketball and stuff like injury history (Brandon Roy) and attitude (Royce White) are secondary to "being good at basketball."

Here, I think it's similar with Asik. It is reasonable to bet on Asik improving his attitude (not a sure thing) when the alternative is betting on Lee and Bass improving their talent level or becoming 7 feet tall.

The worry about attitude weighs in favor of making the trade, but apparently not enough in Morey's calculations.

2. If the Rockets are OK with taking back Courtney Lee in the right deal, I wonder if they'd be open to taking back another guy whose contract lasts until 2016, like Jeff Green or Thaddeus Young-- both guys I think are better than Bass.

This closes off the prospect of 2015 cap room, but not necessarily prospect of upgrades. You can still trade for one of them. Also, a 2016 expiring contract would work for possibly luring Kevin Durant in free agency.

 

Man, you know I love your knowledge and creativity, but comments like these never cease to make me shake my head when reading your posts.

LIKELY?! Do you know how many times a wink-wink one-year non-guaranteed extension has ever happened? As far as I can tell, NEVER. You preached the same notion about the Rockets doing this with Garcia last season.

COULD something like this happen (as in, is it theoretically possible)? Yes.

Will Morey explore such an option. Of course.

But you constantly confuse the fact that something is POSSIBLE with it being LIKELY.

I think you get so excited with the fact that you are among the few on ClutchFans who actually understands these complicated concepts that you let it drive your perception of how transactions are actually able to be consummated. But the REALITY is that such complex salary cap machinations rarely (if ever) come to fruition.

Don't get me wrong, I still think you are a valuable member of this BBS and on the short list of knowledgeable posters on the more complex salary cap issues. But your credibility takes an unnecessary hit when you constantly refer to rare cap maneuvers as "likely".

/rant

P.S. You know I love ya, bballholic!

 

Bima--Straight up, when I don't understand how the cap or salaries work, I search for your threads, posts and articles.

You should write an NBA Salary Cap book for Dummies. I'd buy it.

 

LOL

Don't quite understand the "wink-wink" bit. Whatever. But you understand the concept obviously. So why wouldn't it be likely that if we could trade for a large expiring at the deadline (since the incentive to do sign-and-trades is now moot and an expiring contract is essentially worthless unless we can control it through the 2014 off season for trade purposes) for the Rox to offer a non-guaranteed extension in exchange for another million dollars or two to the player? I think it would be most likely that if Morey traded for an expiring contract that he would do something like this since you know he loves cap flexibility.

And you know it makes sense. Especially since the 20th passed without us making a deal and now we can't make a deal to make another deal at the deadline. Now we either do nothing at the deadline, or we make a deal to make another deal in the summer of 2014 or we make THE DEAL to add the third superstar piece. (Frankly, I like this last option the best and I think it's become more viable with Brook Lopez going down yesterday.)

Hedo sitting in Orlando with a $12 million expiring deal. He has no real value in trade. They're probably gonna wind up just cutting him and he's stuck with his $6 million. Do you think he'd accept a zero dollar non-guaranteed extension for next season if he knows we're gonna hold him until then and not cut him, thereby putting an extra $6 million in his pocket?????

Okafor in Phoenix.... if we can do nothing else but a trade materializes for him and a couple first rounders for Asik at the deadline.....don't you think Morey is going to get Okafor to agree to a non-guaranteed extension for max dollars with a small buyout of say.... $1-$2 million??? You tell me...if we trade for Okafor isn't it "likely" that we get him to agree to such and extension?

Love you too, sweetie pie! Why don't you go figure out how much money the Nets could save in salary and luxury tax by trading Deron and KG to us for Asik/Lin/Brewer/Smith/Jones/DMo/Covington? Either that or figure out what ole Casspi needs to do about that sucky release he's got.

Better yet, I'm still waiting for a definitive answer from you on whether or not the league would allow us to trade Jeff Teague to Milwaukee if we acquired him in trade. Dude, that's been a couple weeks now.

LOL

 

Of course! Why WOULDN'T the Rockets trade away a valuable contributer in either Asik or Lin to Orlando in exchange for Turkoglu and a likely crappy pick (Orlando AIN'T trading away any of their picks that would fall in the lottery)? On top of that, why WOULDN'T Les Alexander agree to pay Turkoglu another SIX MILLION DOLLARS just to have control of non-guaranteed salary for a couple of months when that asset may not ever be used? I'm pretty sure that the Rockets would rather just hold onto Asik or Lin than make that deal.

Also, while I know you're just joking around (or at least hope so), asking someone "Why don't you go..." doesn't exactly speak well for one's ability to take constructive criticism. (See, that was more constructive criticism.)

#BeWell

EDIT:

Truth be told, I'm not sure whether a team could trade for Teague (with Teague's consent) and then subsequently trade him to Milwaukee (the team that signed him to his offer sheet). I don't have an answer for you.

But I don't OWE you an answer. I don't OWE you a damn thing. If you honestly want to complain about me not answering your questions, maybe I shouldn't waste my time answering them.

 

That is quite obvious. Morey was hoping to get the best deal, but it didn't work out.

 

Wasn't a lack of touches one of Pau's complaints this season... contributing to him feeling, "unwanted?"

Either way, I'm glad none of this will happen... We give LA a productive PG with upside in Lin (fill one of their big needs), and a great defensive, rebounding center for the services of an ancient Pau Gasol (didn't Dwight/Pau fail in LA? How are you giving him 30 minutes?) And, let's not forget...more playtime and responsibility for a terribly streaky, defensive liability/mismatch in favor of the opponent almost every game(AB)...

 

That Lakers team actually finished the season pretty strong after a slow start. They started the season 17-25, but finished the last 40 games 28-12 once they figured out how to play with each other (a lot of Pau-Dwight hi-low action). But people tend to remember the chaos that began the season and the playoff sweep that ended it (with Kobe out and facing a SAS team that was just a machine) and not so much when they actually played well.

According to Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLA, Dwight loved playing with Pau but we are not quite sure about the other way around. Between these two, Pau ended up having to leave his comfort zone near the basket.

 

Great article, but I am afraid this is developing into a cancerous situation, the longer we have to hold onto him, and the more disgruntled he becomes the less likely we could get decent value in return.

I have been saying all year, he is redundant on this team, a luxury, someone that is nice to have as a backup center, but not one that is really going to impact our chances all that much at 12 -15 mpg.

Morey did the right thing by getting Lin and Asik with poison pill contracts, but now the poison is stuck in our guts.



DD

 

Definitely, put the players at the first place. They are not just goods.

 

IMHO, this whole thing surrounding the 2015 FA market is suspect. Sure you need to have a long term plan and be smart and keep the flexibility. But 2015 is still 1.5 years away. A lot of things can happen between now and then. One major injury can change the whole picture. (We Rockets fans know this extremely well in the past decade, don't we?)

You want to be able to contend as soon as you can. You now have supposedly two top 10 players. Is that not good enough to go all in, putting as much talent around them as you can RIGHT NOW? Why save for the proverbial 3rd star in 2015, which may or may not sign with us?

 

I think its just one of many dishes available on Morey's plate. I think he would take on 2015 salary if it was the right deal. By right deal, I mean moderate to significant improvement of roster by doing so. Or significant asset in terms of picks. Not necessarily Love, LMA, Lebron or nothing. But something more than a Courtney Lee.

I think this was demonstrated (at least in rumor) that the kind of first rounder we got was key. A top 10 2014 pick and Lee would be a Rocket.

 

Daryl Morey knows what he is doing.

We have two franchise cornerstones in Howard/Harden signed to long term deals. Right now, there are no sure-fire deals that would put us over-the-top. Therefore the best thing to do is build around these two stars and surround them with complementary role players to be as competitive as we can without handicapping future flexibility. What if Durant gets injured? We can't predict the future but what Morey and Rockets will do is to continue putting out the best product of a team that we can and bide our time until the next golden opportunity strikes.
This is reminiscent of the Yao/McGrady era where if they were surrounded by decent role players and we were healthy the year Artest joined, we likely would have been in the finals.
Patience

 

I get what you're saying, but those contracts weren't "poison pills" for the ROCKETS. They were "poisonous" to the Bulls and Knicks due to the CAP HIT for those guys in the third year if those teams matched.

Once you presuppose that the Rockets weren't grossly overpaying for Asik and Lin by paying them an average salary of $8,374,646 (which may be tough to presuppose, since they HAD to overpay by necessity to get those guys as restricted free agents), then the contracts are just fine for the Rockets. I don't think Les Alexander is panicking about having to pay Asik and Lin each $14.9 million next season, since he's ALREADY SAVED THAT MONEY (AND MORE) DURING THE FIRST TWO YEARS OF THEIR CONTRACTS.

The Rockets have received the full benefit of only paying Asik and Lin $5 million for their services last year, well below their true value. Same thing for this year, only having to pay them each $5.225 million. To the Rockets, those balloon payments are just deferred compensation. Pretty sure the Rockets have accounted for the (very likely) scenario in which those players' balloon payments would make them hard to trade later during their contracts and have plenty of funds available to pay them next year. Hell, they have those funds (and then some) just from the money they SAVED on those deals over this year and last.

Not disagreeing with your point, DD. Just clarifying for the others that (other than overpaying a couple of restricted free agents on an annualized basis to steal them from their former teams) the Arenas Rule contracts handed out to Asik and Lin were NOT "poison pills" to the Rockets. Far from it. If anything, they were a more beneficial version of a simple restricted free agency overpay.