[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

He is the most famous troll... You should know better...

 

I say, enough with all these fancy stats. Ultimately, the only stats defining a team's success is winning more games than their opponents, whether it is during regular season or in playoff series. Last time I checked, winning by a point is counted equally as winning by 30. To me, the starting lineup is not important but the overall rotations during games are. Based on Clutch's numbers, you'd think Rockets should have won higher % of games with PB starting. The fact is that with Lin starting we actually won a slightly high %. I was always puzzled by why this is the case. I know it has sth to do with injuries, the opponents, and small samples. But more importantly there is a fundamental flaw in Clutch's analysis. So bear with me.

If the current starting lineup could play the whole game, I agree that Clutch's analysis would be right on point. But in reality, we have to use other combinations and lineups during games. Think about it. If the starting lineup has such a high positive Net Rating but at the same time the Rockets actually lost at a slightly higher %. The only logical conclusion is that the other combinations must have high negative Net Ratings. As a result, overall the Rockets ended up having low Net Rating. Let's put it in simple math. For the sake of analysis, let's suppose we could use only two pairs of lineups in sequence during a game (in Game 1, Lineup A + Lineup B, while in Game 2 Lineup C + Lineup D. In reality, it is of course much more complicated than this). In Game 1, Lineup A has a Net Rating of +10 while Lineup B has Net Rating of -8. A+B = +2. In Game 2, Lineup C has a Net Rating of +6 while Lineup D has a Net Rating of -3. C+D = +3 > A + B. So even if Lineup A has the highest Net Rating, in Game 2 we actually win more. This simple example just illustrates that it does not matter whether a single lineup has high positive Net Rating and for the team's success it is the combinations of different rotations and different lineups determine ultimately the team's success. So Clutch's numbers only support PB works well with the other starters but the opposite must be true that the lineups with Lin coming off bench stink in a big way :grin:. So it is better off for PB to start but it is not better off (actually worse off) with Lin off bench. As a result, the Rockets may be worse off overall.

Of course, in reality it is much more complicated as shown in the stats posted by others that during 4th quarter (often deciding if a game is won or lost), the lineup of Lin-JH-CP-TJ-DH actually has higher Net Rating than that of PB-JH-CP-TJ-DH.

Just some food for thought. Pls. don't label me with this or that. :grin:

 

This is great! Thanks. I always thought the starting lineup net rtg was too convenient - taht it was more involved. I think (bear with me) that the ROckets AS CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED hinge more on Lin's success for the team to have great success than they care to admit right now. Check this out-
The TRULY elite teams that are REAL contenders (Miami, Ind, Sas, Okc and I will add POR maybe controversially but you'll see why) all share in common one thing in common even thought their playing styles differ - in the 4 critical areas PPG, RPG, APG, OPPg, all of those teams rank in the TOP 10 in 3 out of 4 categories. The only exception is IND who get away with it by being #1 in OPPG. The ROX are top 10 in in 2 out of 4.

ROX
PPG - 5th
RPG - 8th
APG - 25th (this one is key)
OPPG 20th (this can get better, but IMO will not reach top 10)

The reason I think APG is key is because the Rockets were knocking on the door just last year when they were ranked #12. If we were even at that level again (via Jeremy and James sharing these duties again) we would be winning more games for sure. It is worrisome to me that we have dropped this far, but the 2 'Sampson-less games' showed that they can turn this switch on if they want to AND Dwight and James still get their production, just more efficiently on average. Thoughts? Seems pretty clear to me that running with Lin as a true point at least for a significant % of the game again, could help this greatly.Thoughts? Maybe oversimplifying, but...

 

One more thing - all the elite teams except POR rank in the top 10 in OPPG - POR is 27th, HOU is 20. So if we can get our asst back up and perhaps improve OPPG a bit, we should in theory at least be on Portland's level, if not better.

 

Funny you said Rox had a bad PG rotation. Most of the Rox fans thought its PG rotation was one of the Rox strength at beginning of the season and it was in fact very deep.

Perhaps Rox fans should ask their genius coach Kevin McHale why. It all started when that genius suddenly wanted to "experiment" starting PG in preseason and ended up sticking to his backup PG as starter at beginning of the season.

Look at it this way, it is like in baseball, some idiot manager suddenly decide to play his relieve pitcher as starter, and bring his starting pitcher from bullpen, at the start of a season, for no overwhelming reasons. It was just bizarre. The end result was both player under-perform because:

1. The starting pitcher has trouble adjust to relieve job in bullpen. His confidence got shot and he has trouble finding his rhythms. Only some really experienced starting pitchers can make quick adjustment to relieve duties. And because of Bev's injures, the starter (now the reliever) was in & out of starting starting lineup quite a few times during this short season already. Clearly, he struggled to find his role and worse, he knew he got no trust from his manager either.

2. On the other hand, the relieve pitcher struggles from time to time as well because currently he only has one pitch in his repertoire: fast ball, and country to his previous role, he really can't go all-out for whole 8 innings for a full season. Thinking about Bev, do you guys seriously believe his body is physically capable of playing full court, in your face defense for over 35 mins a game for 82 games? Not to mention, unlike baseball, he has to contribute at offense end, knock down shots, and occasionally penetrate and create opportunities for his teammates. It is not a coincidence he shots 1-11 and 2-9 in games because after use his energy pressuring the opponents, that guy has no legs left for offense. A spark plug is a spark plug, nobody can play hard and go all out all the time like McHale thinks.

Finally, seeing so many rox fans and even Mod applauded McHale idiotic lineup changes is what is more interesting. They know better.

 

Again, people like Bev because of his "energy", "confidence", and "spark", but the fact is he can't score or facilitate well to any consistent degree. He's just a cog who won't take production away from Harden. Unfortunately, this team is going to need more from its starting PG than just a guy who runs around with his hands in people's faces. Bev's inability to control his intensity contributed to both his injuries so far this season.

 

Lin is a solid starter. In fact, he's so solid that it threatened Harden's game because of the overlapping skill set. So, under the guise of needing a scorer off the bench, Lin was moved to 6th man and replaced by Bev at starting PG (i.e., he was basically demoted for being too good).

 

I am not a LOF. I am HOF. I suggest we trade Lin or get Jimmer Fredette to complement Howard. Man are you blind? I listed all the possible teams in my reply and the condition Lin can fit in well. Once again you are wasting people's reply to your question by not providing any substance in your post.

 

I like Bev's hustle and energy. Especially his first game back. My only concern is whether he can sustain this performance over the long haul.

Giving the way Jeremy is playing recently, unless Bev continue his 1/11 shooting streak, there is no reason to give Jeremy more play time then Bev.

 

Well then if Rockets org and fans are all hating Lin, trade him for Rubio then. If there is money difference, just throw in a 2nd round pick. Lin will be a definite upgrade over Rubio in offense. Those think Lin is very inferior to Rubio in D should re-watch the games he shut down Parker, Conley, Holiday etc before Bev came back. But if Lin is so worthless to the Rox, trade him and save some money and keep Asik.

 

If there were any conspiracy, I would have thought that the Rockets are establishing Harden's offensive juggernaut stardom status, so they can attempt to trade him for Lebron or KD or something in the near future.

 

Actually he stayed with the starter.
Jeremy Lin was no longer the starting PG at the end of last season.
The difference was as noticeable then as it is now.

 

Lin is not a solid starter and no, he was not demoted for being too good...

The Rockets NEED a solid starter at the point, and it will have to come via trade or the draft.

 

Did I say Lin couldn't start? I pointed out that out of the 4 teams listed as places Lin would start; 2 of them have back ups starting and playing well, and that Milwaukee would not bench Knight. That leaves 1 team (Knicks) out of 30. Starting on 1 team is not "a solid starter", hell starting on 5 teams isn't a "solid starter"... A solid starter is 15 teams.... Starting for 5 teams is a fringe starter, starting for 1 team is when you know the team is looking for an upgrade.

 

A solid starter is an average NBA starter...

 

Bev is good by a tad over rated here.

 

Beverly would be fine as a starter if the Rockets bench was elite and Jones had a better jumper. However you cannot count on his shot enough to be satisfied with him on the current no depth Rockets team.

I love Beverly as a bench player, but the Rockets need to upgrade at the point so he can just defend, lead and protect the ball and not shoot.

 

Actually you got it backwards. Harden's game isn't threatened by Lin. It's the other way around and that's why Lin is coming off the bench. Parsons handles the ball a lot as well. It's probably better for Lin to come off the bench because he can get more time with the ball.

 

Beverley's defense is completely overrated. Whenever he tried, he got into foul trouble. If he put less aggressive on defense, he wasn't better than Lin at all in both defense and offense.

 

This truth is Lin off the bench does not get any time with the ball. After 1st quarter when Harden took a rest, Parson handles the ball for bench.

Then beginning of 4th quarter when Harden took a rest, Beverley was handling the ball. Even in Garbage time, AB was handling the ball. Most of the time you see Lin standing at the corner.