[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

interdasting.

 

Interesting post, I don't think the stats that Clutch posted tell the whole story at all. Although I do agree if Lin plays the way he has the past week that Bev should start. I just think in the long run that a team is better off starting their best players, and it's the coaches job to figure out how to make that work.

This is still a close call either way, and I really wouldn't call this an objective statement,

""Jeremy Lin should not start for the Houston Rockets. That job belongs to Patrick Beverley right now, and frankly, it’s not even a close call anymore.""

but everybody is entitled to their opinion. I think people need to remember that it is an opinion and not necessarily a fact.

 

In a perfect world, sure. My only point is it's naive to think relationships are unaffected when that kind of thing is aimed at everybody from Morey to McHale to his teammates, on down the members of the Rockets' media team, allegedly on his behalf. I think all parties involved would have to be robots for it not to have an impact. Just a crap deal for Lin, IMO.

 

Maybe they should. If the whole argument is that the better player doesn't always have to be the starter, then maybe Westbrook should be the Jason Terry of OKC and they would be a better team starting Jackson. Maybe the problem with Durant-Westbrook is similar to Harden-Lin?

 

Rep'd.

I would only add that there have been a few LOF who have converted themselves into Rockets fans. Whether they will be here for the long haul, it remains to be seen. Good post.

 

I'll admit, that's a pretty good counter.

Yes, one could argue that, if not for the fact that Westbrook produces consistently at an all-star level and has been doing so for years. So, the expectation is that when he gets back healthy, in the long run OKC is better off with him getting the lion-share of the minutes. Its far less clear that is the case with Jeremy, and so we put more stock into the statistics indicating how the team performed with either player on the floor.

 

Forget Russell Westbrook, these numbers get sillier when you look at the Clippers.

Granted, CP3 went down with an injury not that long ago, but the numbers show when Jamal Crawford/Jared Dudle/Blake Griffin/DeAndre Jordan are on the floor....and that is the lineup they often have during crunch time,

with CP3 + those 4 guys....a net rating of 6.6
with Darren COllison + those 4 guys.....a net rating of 17.6!

Once again, CP3 just got hurt, he has 266 min in 32 games with those 4 as opposed to Collison who has 18 games and 112 minute, but still the differential is startling and no one really believes those 4 are a better fit without CP3.

 

For the longest time people thought Russell Westbrook was too selfish and in fact needed to fall back and stop shooting and defer more to Durant. It wasnt till he got hurt and they finally realized in order to win now Durant needs to drop close to 40 or more.

Once again I agree Bev is a better fit to be a starter. I just don't think using numbers which also show Reggie Jackson is a better fit than Westbrook and Darren Collison is a better fit than CP3, is the right way to drive the point home.

 

Huge upgrade defensively with RJ in the starting lineup. Good article on it here:

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/65386/killer-lineup-okcs-jackson-five

 

When you say that Beverley is a better fit, how do you come to that view? If not lineup +/-, are there any other stats which you think better reflect the reasons why Beverley fits better in the starting lineup?

 

People can argue whether how significant Clutch's numbers are-- there could be some noise in any kind of raw +/- type data. What is hard to argue in light of the numbers is that it is at least NOT CRAZY for the coaches to start Beverley when he is available.

Morey said once that he only get frustrated with non-analytics based coaching decisions if the data clearly shows that the decision is crazy. The data here actually supports what the coaches do. Even if there are other explanations for the difference, at the very least it's hard to see how it would be stupid for the coaches to make Beverley a starter.

Anyhow, there is a lot more of the season left, both of the PGs will get minutes and continue to generate data.

 

It's obvious the Rockets starting unit plays with Beverly. You can see that during the game and from the +/- stats. So is that the end all be all that Patrick Beverly should start? I don't think so.

Beverly is basically a spot up 3 pt shooter and offensive rebounder on offense. And he harasses people on the defensive end. This is why he's a better fit with the starting unit in this Rockets system. Harden and Parsons can handle the ball without interruption. Beverly is a better fit in McHale's system.

The question is, is McHale's offensive system good? I don't really notice an offensive system when watching the games. Too many times I've seen this starting unit fail down the stretch of a game with McHale's offense if there is one.

So ok yeah Beverly with the starting unit is more effective. But I think that's a short term view. Lin is the more talented player, and I think the potential of the Rockets with Lin starting is much higher than with Beverly. It's going to take the right scheme or coach to make right though.

 

Perkins is a unique case. One exception to the general analytical nature of OKC operation. This has been the case since Harden was still there, because Ibaka-Collison-Durant-Harden-Westbrook was their best lineup by far. But Perkins is Perkins. He's their veteran guy so he starts regardless of results.

This is why your comparison is somewhat flawed. Perkins has played in the clutch situation 20% of the time in OKC (per 82games). In comparsion, Jones played in the clutch 63% of the time. With of course Harden, Howard, Parsons much higher. OKC's best lineup comes with Reggie Jackson and Westbrook TOGETHER on the court. Similar to when Harden was in OKC and was the defacto PG when he played with Westbrook. Harden was a closer in OKC, playing 85% of crunch time minutes despite being a 6th man.

So how well Westbrook play in a Perkins lineup is not actually relevant to how Lin would play in a Jones/Howard/Harden/Parsons lineup. We know the Rockets finish games with those 4. While Perkins generally sit during close games.

 

So are we finally on the same page ?

 

There's a team out there that will sign him for that role at a cheap price if that what he truly wants. Of course it won't last.

I give Lin more credit though. If he finds a role as a sixth man on this team, I feel he will stick around. He seems humble enough to realize that Linsanity was a fluke and he is better of served with a stable role and salary with a team that has a legit shot to win it all. But who the heck knows at the end of the day.

 

Clutch, bro...

An image for a table on a website? C'mon man, use a little html/css!

 

I know, I know. I have been in that situation before.

I actually like Lin, but when I pointed out something in his favor, I was immediately called a LOF. :grin:

But you know, I also propped DMo up when he was begging for playing time. Does that make me a DmoOF? :grin:

 

True

Not true. All-stars rarely have the identity issues Lin has. I have never seen a starting pg play as timidly at times. Usually if you have to pick up your dribble outside the 3 point line you'd never get to play the pg position...in high school! Do you understand how embarrassing it is for an NBA pg to pick up his dribble behind the 3 point line in man coverage and then struggle to pass it to either side of him? Lin does that all the time. It's not normal in the NBA. It's abnormal. A player with those types of deficiency usually never see significant minutes. I mean, his inability to hold the dribble might be enough ON ITS OWN to disqualify him as a starting pg.

If you think Lin is not getting support, help, and encouragement, I would venture that you don't follow the game by game analysis by sportswriters then you much be getting it from lotto teams trying to break in.


No need to go extreme comparing Lin to the nutcase JR in the mental department, although they both played for Woodson once. Woodson was loud and clear that Lin needs to improve and further develop his game. But he also gave him support, as stated in one of the post games, "I trust my PG and put the ball in his hands in the 4th quarter. He delivered."[/QUOTE]

 

it's not about being humble, it's about seeing what your ceiling is. he has constantly said that he believes he's just getting started and still has a lot to work on, and want to see what his ceiling is. if a guy can start 82 games for a playoff team while having no left hand and shaky handles, while shooting at an avg/below avg rate, there's reason to believe that he's not done developing.

unless he has a huge role in getting the rockets to the WC finals, i highly doubt he would stay - not at this age, and not at this stage of his development. i don't think he'll go looking for the next linsanity, but he knows he most likely won't find his ceiling on this team.

and even if his ceiling is a backup pg on a contending team, he owe it to himself to test that out at this young age.

 

lmao dont feed the troll