[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

Epically great analogy.

 

If Lin starting 82 games and helping the youngest team get into playoffs has nothing to do with deserving start, then Bev's 20 game starting had nothing to do with "deserving".

I didn't simplify it by picking Harden only. I went through Howard, Parsons, Asik, and Jones, which one of them exactly do you think Lin doesn't fit? Except for Howard, didn't the rest of them played a whole season together? Did they fit? From time to time, Bev and Lin fit quite well together on the court. Don't you agree?

 

I don't pretend to be a stats guy, but I ask if you think that Rox with hypothetical Bev as a starter last year with no Lin on the team may have had a harder time making the playoffs? Didn't Lin avg something like 17 and 6 or 7 after the asg and took over some games with Harden out? There are some other intangibles here other than the small sample size ppp stats. That said, I feel that THIS year he is a better fit with the starters as that production is made up by Howard and Jones and Parsons upping the points from their position. The difference in D with Lin and Bev team-wise is not big enought ot make up the scoring/playmaking difference LAST YEAR. This year, go Bev! And Lin, get out of your freaking funk.

 

Rockets can win without Lin.

 

I don't get how there is a trade Jones thread but not a trade Beverley thread. You guys seem to like "selling high".

 

Thanks! Interesting read and definitely made some good points. So I reviewed the NBA Stats site some more with a buddy and here are my observations:

1) Yes, based on the NetRtg we are better with Bev over Lin with the rest of the starting 5 (based on Jone's games).

2) But using that same logic, we are clearly better with Casspi as a starter vs T Jones (regardless of whether or not Lin or Bev is our PG). So using Clutch's logic, Casspi "DESERVES" to start over Terrence Jones. (This would suck for me b/c TJ is on my fantasy squad but I digress)

3) Put Ronnie Brewer in with Lin, Harden, TJ and Dwight and we have a better NetRtg (17.7) than Bev with regular starters (12.7) that Clutch used in the original article. So really, our best starting lineup would have us replacing Parsons with the defensive ability of Brewer while also allowing Parsons to provide that scoring punch off our bench. Who's in favor of this?

4) One of our best lineups is with Howard and Parsons playing with the bench guys (Brooks, Garcia and Casspi) with an 83.9 NetRtg. So maybe we should have them play on the bench b/c they mesh better than with the starters.

So I anticipate that most obvious argument will be that the minutes used for the last one is only based on a total of 20 minutes but the lineup in my 3rd scenario boasts a healthy 55 minutes. And while Lin and Bev are more with a 248 and 245 minutes respectively, at the end of the day, this isn't anywhere close to a reliable sample size to judge who deserves to start and make this conclusion.

Like Clarinet mentioned, a blowout or two could skew these results. Or the strength of schedule should be considered too. If Lin played 2 more games against tougher opponents like OKC and Indiana, while Bev played 2 games against teams that weren't as elite, it would make a difference. Lastly, how healthy were the starting 5 when Lin or Bev played with them? When Lin was playing with Parsons and his back was so jacked up he was practically falling to the court, he wasn't as good as when he was at full strength with Bev. So once again, that one game would skew the stats.

I am glad that Clutch is using stats to make an argument. Way more value than the "eye test" and it gives us a chance to dissect the numbers. But also, with stats, you have to consider all of the scenarios and if they aren't equal, the conclusion and findings are not always correct.

 

HAHA! He'll have to do what he did last night more than once in a great while first. But seriously, he does have some trade value for sure, but TJones is proving to be legit more on the regular and with his size/position/skills/youth his value is probably much higher than Bev's at the moment.

 

Nobody was saying Lin didn't deserve to start last year.

And teams make changes all the time. The Rockets went through Rafer, Brooks, Lowry, Dragic, Lin, Beverley in like 4 years. So obviously they're very much a "what have you done for me lately" type of a team.

I'm a fan. If you want me to break down tape I have no freaking idea. I can only tell you what works better or worse in hindsight. And in hindsight, Beverley has had better result.

And as I mentioned above, the Rockets conclusion is apparently the same. Perhaps if and when Morey or another Rockets personnel does a reddit AMA, you can ask him.

 

Your question makes no sense. Because it has a useless premise, which is that Lin apparently disappears off the face of the Earth in your scenario. This is simlar to the premise that catches are the most important position in baseball because if he doesn't exist, you have only passed balls.

But real life doesn't work like that. If Lin was not on the team, neither is his $8mil salary. Which meant that money would've gone to someone else. So let's suppose the Rockets accepted Plan A last year and re-signed Dragic instead. Then my answer is, "Absolutely the Rockets make the playoffs last year."

 

Maybe, maybe not.

 

Your post is possibly the closest explanation to what's happening out there in terms of player rotation IMO.

And I thought in addition to what you said, moving Lin to bench has also to do with the "brutal fact" that Morey is set to get rid of his contract to prepare the way for the third star. The organization has changed their direction since the acquisition of Howard, for they realize they can be a championship contender any time soon if they get a third star. Lin's skill set is redundant with Harden and the Rox will be paying him 15 mil next season. A shrewd businessman like Morey and Les would rather pay the money to an all-star rather than Lin, who is still quite inconsistent in his performance.

I believe Morey is not in a hurry to trade Lin, however when the opportunity arrives, he will do it without a blink of an eye. When the season began with Lin being benched, it was already a sign Lin is not going to be a part of Rockets' plan and it's getting obvious as the time goes by.


The rest of the reasons we heard all this while are just some excuses

No hate involved. It's just some brutal business reason.

And sometimes I really feel sorry for McHale for taking all the blame.

 

All good points - but at the end of the day, the coaches have spoken. You, I, Lin and his supporters and haters have to live with that and make the best of it. I just wish he would embrace it like he did earlier in the year and come out every game guns a blazin' again. He looked freaking FEARLESS at the beginning of the season. ugh. Please, someone recommend him that psychologist!! Ok, I won't mention that anymore

 

How do you justify that Bev was more "deserving" to start game one this season then? I thought it was about fitting rather than "deserving". That's just my opinion.

 

Fair enough. Yes, my hypothetical I guess would be too much of a reality stretch just plugging in one player for another. I guess my point was that last year, Lin was a superior starter to what Bev would have been in the same situation if Bev was making 8mil for argument's sake. This year, nada mucho.

 

I love how these Lin-Exclusively fans attempt to defend his honor against Pat Beverly with a bunch of garbage.

Patrick Beverly hasn't been in the NBA that long and he's relatively unknown to anyone outside of the Rockets and fans. Even with that reputation, he still plays with more energy, defensive efficiency, confidence and poise than Jeremy. Yes, Jeremy is still learning, but he's had more time than anyone deserves to start developing.

Quite frankly, it's possible that Jeremy has hit his ceiling. He is who we thought he was before coming here. He's not a franchise player. He may not even be starting-caliber.

If we're completely honest, neither Pat nor Jeremy are on the same level as CP3, Westbrook, DWill, etc.. However, Pat's potential, as evidenced from last season to this year, seems to have more reach than Jeremy's.

I like Jeremy. He is an average point guard, but an asset to a team. He can score during some games. He can take care of the ball.

Jeremy does what point guards are expected to do (sometimes) but he doesn't do anything exceptionally well. This isn't to say that Pat is on Lebron's level, but in my opinion, he offers more to any team at this point in his career. From the shooting, ball-handling, rebounding, confidence, defense and even communication, he is far more developed than JLin.

I'm glad Clutch flat out wrote he deserves to start. We all knew it.

We probably just held off because of the petty fans that only stick around for ONE damn player. That in itself is disgusting for real Rockets fans that support the TEAM for its rich history. One player doesn't deserve more support/fandom over an entire team, dynasty and legacy of players.

We're better than player-only fans.

Those types can find a happy home on a Miami, Los Angeles, NY or OKC message board. Lord knows most of them just recently became a fan because of X player.

Love my real Rockets fans. Love my ROCKETS above all players.



....except Cuttino (still bitter )

 

Lin's number is up anyway and he will part away from the Rockets eventually and inevitably. When opportunity comes up, he will be traded regardless. If not, the worst will be wait til his contract expires. For the time being, Bev will always start over Lin regardless of how he plays (good or bad) without any doubt. It doesn't matter whose fan you are. Like it or not. NBA is all business and if the management of the Rockets think this is the best way for the team, then they will do it. Time will eventually tell everyone it is the right move or not.

If you are a Rockets fan, you should always want the team to win and put your player bias aside.

If you are Lin fan, you may want the trade to take place even he may or may not do well with another team.

If you are Lin hater, you may want Lin out as soon as possible.

If you are troll only, then it will be quite interesting. Cus you will lose your chance of trolling here any more.

 

I really liked this post as well as real_egal's post. I can see this happening. Now personally, I don't think any decisions regarding Lin is anywhere even near racist but where are they getting this racist idea from? Well, during Linsanity, there was the "couple of inches of pain" tweet and ESPN's "chink in the armor" and this is from people who work in mainsteam media. Let's not pretend that Lin doesn't get racial slurs posted on his social media also. Let's also not pretend that there weren't numerous posts on this forum that can be deemed insulting by someone who is asian. Then look at the disparity between the amount of these posts compared to other races.

I don't condone any of it but all I'm saying is it is a 2 way street and blame goes both ways.

 

You sound bitter about more than just Cat my man.

 

I'm a lifetime Rockets fan of over 30 years, so it's been disappointing to see so much LOF strife. Although it is encouraging to see a couple of LOF to Rockets fan converts speak-up in this thread.

What really bugs me is the racist boogeyman card that constantly gets played. There is no racist conspiracy to stifle the success of players of Asian descent. I really can't comprehend how people could postulate something so absurd.

I hope that Lin embraces his role as 6th man and tries to tailor his approach to that role. In doing so, I believe he can make a strong contribution to this season's success - including an outside shot at a title run.

If he wants to be a starter on this team and for most NBA teams, then I think that the biggest weakness that I see is his turnovers. For a Harvard graduate, I thought he'd be a master of risk-reward and turnover analytics. So far, though, it hasn't been the case.

I'd love to see some analysis on what drives the difference in the team's offensive rating with Beverley versus Lin with the starters. Is it TOs? Is it generating turnovers on defense that lead to fast break points?

It's probably fair to say that Lin has more upside potential to be a great player than Beverley. As always, every player and every Rockets fan should embrace a team over each outlook. Right now, that seems to mean Lin should focus on continuing to be a good player and becoming a great 6th man.

 

While I agree Bev is a better fit to start, these numbers are misleading.
I assume the number calculates Parsons/Howard/TJones/Harden stats for the entire game in which either Bev or Lin starts, not numbers specific to when they are actually on the floor.

Of course Bev's #'s are going to be higher, because he has the benefit of Lin coming off the bench thus inflating numbers because he likely shares the court with some combo of Parsons/Harden/TJones/D12 on the floor and Lin was hot to start the year.

Now when Lin starts he has Aaron Brooks coming off the bench, clearly an inferior player to Bev. The other 4 starters net rating would certainly be higher if Bev came off the bench when Lin started.

So essentially you are not measuring Lin vs Bev as starters. You are comparing Bev start and Lin off the bench vs Lin start and Brooks off the bench.