[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

Imagine how much this season would be different if the main rotation for most of the games was:

Harden
Howard
Parsons
Bev
TJones

JLin
Asik
DMo
(Casspi)

That sounds like such a win team to me... Casspi has been doing decent, but Lin Asik and DMo have some pretty legit chemistry from last year.

 

I don't think you can say he's fallen into obscurity. Much the opposite. I think he has a solid career and is still an inspiration to many (solid NBA guy, immense human being).

No one should really be too disappointed, IMO. Much is still unwritten and it's easy to cheer for the guy.

 

Just curious, asides from the statistics presented in the table, what is the winning rate for each starter. That is an important statistics that shall not be overlooked.

 

When Jeremy had a great start this season, Lin haters don't look at the stats because of small sample. And now clutch uses a even smaller sample to argue Lin is worse than Beverley. SMH.

 

Seems like a lot of people assume that just because Lin is a 6th man he will no longer be an important player.

It's really quite the opposite, lots of 6th man have made incredible impacts in the past, especially in the playoffs. James Harden being one of the most obvious examples.

 

What is Beverly doing in a vacuum.

 

Another Lin thread? Please merge with other threads.

 

And has likely been mentioned a few other times, Manu. Nothing to get down about at all.

 

OK it depends on what kind of sixth man. Does he stay on court in the last five minutes? If Beverley is the better fit, why put Lin on court for the last five minutes? Putting Beverley, Lin and Harden on court together is not a good idea most of time. If he is not on court at final minutes of the game, I don't think he is that important.

 

Excellent article - I dont see why anyone would be upset - Clutch did not come from a position of bias when writing this article he just put up some facts regarding on how the team played with each player starting and while Lin has started more games - the number of minutes is almost exactly the same so the stats he used are almost a perfect control of each other.

For what its worth - i dont care who starts I just want the team to win -- whoever helps the team win by starting I want them to start

The last coach who made decisions on who to start on emotion ended up not having his contract renewed that alone should tell fans that the front office - a front office that heavily relies on advanced stats - is going to have the players who yield the best results through their various formulas start

 

Harden, Ginobili, Terry, Walton, Detlef Schrempf x2, Kevin McHale x2, Odom, Toni Kukoc, John Starks (after being a starter on a finals team), and others were all winners of the 6th man award -- many of those players I would rank ahead of Lin in terms of talent and skill and all of those players were important players who have made all-star teams and as well contribute heavily in helping their teams win a championship.

 

If you didn't read the article, don't comment.

Don't try to say you read it, I can tell you didn't.

If you did read it, it is obvious you didn't understand it....feel free to ask questions if you can't understand the simple stats outlined.

 

Excerpt of OP by theangrycanary replied here assuming that thread will be locked.

That's the point. They are not similar players at all. That's why Beverly is the preferred starter. We dont look for Beverly to improve much more as his skill level already fits with the starters better than Lin. The ideal player would have both Beverly and Lin's skills but that would be an all star level player that is not available right now.

Beverly has pretty much reached his ceiling in skills that are valuable and complementary to the starting 2, 3, 4 and 5 (defense, ball pressure, tenacity, decent 3pt shooting and rebounding - the skills that result in the superior stats posted in Clutch's article).

Lin has a higher ceiling than Beverly, but he has not yet realized that potential. Until he reaches at least Bev's level in these categories, he will remain the second choice starter.

 

Clutch, thanks for your commentary on the topic.

Enjoyed it. It matches the eyeball test.

 

I have been a real Rockets fan for a long time, and it's not easily seen. I can't argue with the numbers, and I even agree that Bev should be the starter if Lin keeps playing like he has the past week.

The numbers don't tell the whole story, and whether people like it or not, coaching does have something to do with it. You saw from the numbers that the pace was better with Lin in the game, the Rockets are better when they play at the faster pace. The Rockets have played their best this year when Lin was in the game with the starters, and I think that's what they should strive for, to play at their best. The problem is that they haven't played this way consistently with Lin as the starter.

I do see that Lin is inconsistent and that Bev may be the better choice while he is inconsistent, but that doesn't mean he is the right choice.

To say that it's not even close as to whether Bev over Lin should start is just ridiculous. I appreciate that Clutch made this forum, but just because Clutch says something doesn't make it a fact.

 

Interesting information. If we can keep on winning more games with Bev as the starter and having Lin come off the bench, I am all for it.
I do wonder what might happen if Bev gets into a stretch of bad games.
That would put a lot of pressure on Harden. Lin would have to step up to help him out.

 

This is a bit misleading. Asik and Lin were starters last year. They were paid $5M last year and will receive the same this year. But, their average yearly salary, the numbers we quote most often, is $8M. That's a fair number for a starting PG and a starting Center in this league, and their play last year was reflective and worthy of that salary. They earned their pay last season, as starters. This season is a whirlwind for both because their roles changed so drastically. I am 100% confident Lin will (even if pouts in private) suit up, play hard for the Rockets every night in what ever capacity he's given, because he's a team player and an honorable man. It might not be up to the standard that we might want each game but he will give us his best effort. I would like to say the same for Asik (perhaps his injury is long-lasting and serious, I don't know) but the eye-test at the very least suggests that he pouts publicly and has made it known that he doesn't want to backup Howard. The $15M owed to Lin and Asik next season seems out of line at the moment because of two monster acquisitions in Harden and Howard, and, the emergence of Pat Beverly. Because of these things, both are bench players this season, but they were valued as starters. It's not Lin's or Asik's fault they Howard or Harden do it better. And, no one forced Morey to structure their contracts as he did.

The $15M/year owed to Asik and Lin next season looks like a huge number but neither is a bad contract. A bad contract is Tyrus Thomas. We are not talking about the benching of two true $15M caliber players here. For example, Eric Gordon of the Pelicans will average $15M over the next three season. Now if the Pelicans somehow decided to make Eric Gordon their backup SG, that would be the very definition of wasted money because the Pelicans would actually be paying him $15M/year for multiple years as their backup. But that's what's happening here. Lin and Asik will be paid $15M next season (even though I like Lin and Asik and wish them the best, it will be difficult for either to earn or command $15M/year in the future) because they were paid less than fair market value the previous two seasons.

 

ahhh,

now I got it.

Since you are a huge CBOF, it must be that moment of : Barkley kissing the butt of a donkey because of Yao scored more than 30 points,

that made you plan all these attack on LOF as a revenge!

Well played sir, well played.

 

Damn. The tone of the article makes it seem Clutch wants to piss off all the LOFs enough so they all leave the board.

 

Too many Lin threads. This one should be merged.