[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

Win/Loss ratio is absolutely useful. It's just not ideal for comparing whether a single player should be starting or coming off the bench. Again, see my previous post about variables. If Lin starts and the starting unit improves, but the bench unit declines significantly more we're talking about a net loss in overall team performance, yes?

Is it plausible that the reason the Rockets won more games when Lin started is due to a factor that's not Lin related? Certainly. Home vs. Away, opponent caliber, back to back games, injuries, Harden's strip club tab the previous night, etc. The inverse is also true.

I've had this argument for years when people try and credit an NFL team's W/L record to the QB. Yes, it's the most important position on the team. So since the Seahawks beat the Broncos in the superbowl does that mean Wilson is better than Manning? Or my earlier point about VY having a great W/L record as a mediocre starting QB.

 

Sorry, I meant to say, "does that mean Wilson is a better starter" but I think the point remains the same.

 

Is it plausible that the reason the Bev starting lineup performed better is due to a factor that's not Bev related? Certainly. Home vs. Away, opponent caliber, back to back games, injuries, Harden's strip club tab the previous night, etc.

 

I can't wait for Lin to be traded so that these LOFs migrate away

 

The problem is you're incorrectly defining the results (re: Bev vs Lin) as team wins vs team losses. The win/loss results do not necessarily correlate to an individual player starting. Clutch's stats were much more appropriate in this context.

Let's stick to sports, shall we? Just look at the now powerful sabermetric community in baseball. They will vomit the moment you mention pitcher win/loss numbers, and rightfully so.

 

Any business that uses that level of statistical analysis will fail pretty much instantly.

 

We almost lost to the WASHINGTON WIZARDS with Jeremy Lin starting. Don't tell me he's the better starter. If you are barely beating more crappy teams, who cares. You need both to beat the better teams and you ABSOLUTELY need a sixth man like Jeremy Lin to carry the bench while the starters rest.

Our defense sucked last night. A point guard is the point at which defense starts. Lin is not a better fit to start. He is a highly serviceable backup to Patrick and if Patrick was out, we'd still be solid, but there is no way our defense would be better, thus the team is worse.

We are still better with both players. So glad to have them both. NEITHER is as good WITHOUT THE OTHER.

Lin is good, but he ain't all that. It's a two-way game. Offense, defense. Remember? Jebus these arguments are old.

LOFs, do you want a starter or a winner? I like it when JLin wins. He does this best when the TEAM has him as a tool coming off the bench.

No way Ariza gets 10 friggin threes with Bev on the court... Jebus.

 

Is attributing 4 other players' performance to 1 specific player that much different from attributing 7 other players' performance to 1 specific player?

 

So you're saying it's Lin's fault because Harden couldn't guard Ariza?

 

It is a valid statistic, but the assumption that starting equals to winning is somewhat flawed.

 

I agree with some of your comments but the Wizards beat the Thunder and Blazers in consecutive games, lost in 2OT to the Spurs and lost 2 heartbreakers to the Griz and Rox...they are playing REALLY good ball lately. And Ariza is a 6'8" 220lb forward that I doubt Bev could cover.

 

It's not Lin's fault, but it did look like Harden was told to help on Wall's dribble penetration, which then led to Ariza being open. Beverley doesn't get such help.

 

well there are several ways you can look at it.. You can dive into number and stats all you want to make a point.. Just which set of numbers do you want to look at? Goes back to that ol saying regarding statistics. "stats dont like but people do" or some crap like that.. Also in the end doesnt win's and losses count more than anything else? That's what it comes down to .. did we win... not saying Lin allows us a better chance to win.. but i don't really give a crap on what the stat's say just so long as we won the game.

 

One other factor in the Wizards game - each game the streak is extended, the harder it gets (mostly mentally) to keep winning in a row. We can only guess what the game would have been like with PBev in there, but just by taking all of AB's no show minutes and some of Lin's minutes (giving Lin more of a breather), well yeas, there's a great chance it could have been an easier game, whether PBev was starting or coming off the bench.
The both compliment each other very well and together often outplay the opponents PG rotation, by a lot. Lucky to have both for sure. The end.

 

Harden doesn't play defense. It's gonna be tough any time a guy gets hot who hardens guarding. Luckily Jlin made some big shots I preserve the lead enough so harden could come through in the end

 

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lol

people see what they wanna see, particularly during his hot streak look where Harden is on each of Arizas catches, and tell me its Lin's fault he was so outta position.

0:54, out of position
1:07, needs to switch back faster once dmo arrived
1:16, the dude has made 7 3s, who is he guarding in the paint??????
1:29? I think he was the scorer so no issue


I'm all for blaming Lin when he goes full r****d and almost throws the game away, but this wasn't his fault that Harden was so apathetic defensively last night, and to blame Lin for Harden being unable to defend Ariza is akin to LOFs blaming Harden/McHale for Lin not going nuts 24/7.

This wasn't the case where IT was just blowing by 24/7 and getting penetration. Harden is just flat out, out of position on alot of them.

 

You know flappy bird is making 50 grand a day only on ads, and all it's replicas are making over 10 grand a day only on ads right? You go ahead and tell me that any business that uses that level of statistical analysis will fail pretty much instantly and I look at the numbers and laugh.

 

I agree it doesn't necessarily correlate, but it also doesn't mean there's no merit to it. Hence my initial post that unless there are more numbers and scenarios, any factual conclusion about it is all just BS even if it's Clutch's stats.

 

Some of you guys need to chill out. The Rox won and this debate whether Bev or Lin should start is really now irrelevant. The team is soo much better with Bev and Lin healthy, and this team would not have had the streak of 7 games if any of them were out for a significant amount of those games. The irony of this is one of our strongest line up is when Bev and Lin are on the court at the same time....you know how much of a luxury that is especially when Harden needs a rest or is off his game?

These 2 genuinely like each other and they both have there individual strengths that really bode well with each other and the team

 

What Aleron said was half true. He just happened to bring in Bev as a comparison, which is not true at all. Harden helps with Bev, because while Bev is great at steals and shot guarding, he's not as good guarding penetrations.

But if you look, only a few of the 3's are actually because of Harden being lazy. There were quite a few team rotational communication issues. That's just defensive chemistry. Ex; The first 3, DMo should have dropped back to Ariza instead of covering Wall, who Lin was guarding. Lin recognized too late that they were doubling Wall and Ariza was open. Who do you blame for that? Hard to say.