[ClutchFans] The Chandler Parsons Contract: An Analysis (UPDATED)

Exelent update.
I think Morey will wait until 2015 and take the risk

 

In two years, Parsons will have leveled off or taken his game up another notch. I wonder which possibility is more likely to keep him in Houston?

 

I think those would be fairly accurate if all were free agents this year. I think Parsons probably is in the 5-7 range, Omer maybe a little less than 12 mil. Beverley, maybe 2 million.

Harden is worth more than 20 million if there were not maximum salaries.

 

Agent has got to get working on those endorsements. Parsons has big potential.

 

So basically, if we sign a max cat type player this summer, we dont exercise parsons team option, making him restricted, and then we match his market value and go over cap with his bird rights
or
we dont land anyone this summer, exercise his team option this year, hope we land a max cat next summer, parsons becomes unrestricted, and hope parsons resigns with us, while we go over the cap with his bird rights.

 

Thanks Bima. I guess Parsons is rooting for Morey to land another superstar by Feb 2014 more than anyone else so we could get paid in the summer of 2014!

 

Thanks for the update.

 

Bima,

how did you discover the team option on Parson's contract?

 

With all due respect to Bimathug, and I think you do great work, I find the contract of Parsons not really worth discussing. Basically it's 4yr deal and Morey's not going to re-work it.

If Parsons may become overvalued for the Rockets taste going into his last year, Morey will flip him for somone cheaper. If Parsons become an allstar worthy of max, the Rockets would have to pay him max regardless. If Parsons starts to slow down in his growth to a role player level, then this isn't even an issue. Parsons may get annoyed if the Rockets don't pay him early, but if ultimately we offer the most on the FA market, he's not going to go elsewhere out of spite.

 

While Parson's salary does not justify his current market value, but by playing with Jlin, I am almost confident that he will soon get a shoe endorsement from China, like Shane Battier did.
Parson has a large fan group in China, way much people knows him then Shane. Ladies fans went nut for him and give him all kind of nicknames, if Battier can get a 4 Mi shoe deal, I am sure Parson will get at least 5 Mil from China's shoe company for his 2 remaining years contract here in Hou..

 

It is worth discussing because without that team option to make him restricted after next season, Chandler could simply walk away from us in 2015. So if you don't care about Chandler being on this team long-term than you could say it's not worth discussing. But if you value Parsons and want him on the team long-term than you have to consider all the possible ramifications here. If he winds up playing a whole 4 years without having his contract redone to appropriate market value and he then has the opportunity to walk to another team, already knowing that we could have made him right the year before, then it just might put a big bug up his behind to leave.

In my humble opinion, I would think that Morey makes him restricted next year and that they have ongoing discussions to get Chandler to sign a longer term deal. It just makes sense in order to retain him.

What that means is from June 30, 2013 until June 30, 2014 is going to be a key time for this team for it's championship aspirations. In my opinion it means we have to use our cap space and sign SOMEONE even if they are not necessarily a superstar but a very good player. If we can't sign a superstar, we need to sign someone to a value contract that we can use as a quality trade chip going forward when that next superstar becomes available through trade. (Does the name Paul Millsap ring a bell?)

 

Oh....another thing.

Understanding the salary cap is very important in visualizing this team going forward. And we have some of the best in the business right here on this board. Deeks and Bima both? Are you kidding me? Other team fan forums would die for that kind of knowledge.

 

What you're saying only matters if Parsons is worth the max. As a RFA, Parsons can be offered up to 4yr/$40mil(5/5/15/15) if he really hit it big. Whereas a max offer one year later would be in the neighborhood of 4yr/$60mil. And even then, it would 3yr/~$45mil vs 4yr/$40mil, since if Morey wait til FA, he get Parsons for one more year at $1mil. And when he does this, he mitigate the risk of Parsons having an injury or not living up to potential in year 4.

And even if for whatever, unbelievable reason Parsons becomes a superstar and demands huge money, we can still definitely retain him because Bird Rights give us better salary increases. So we can outbid everyone on the market should we choose to do so. Which, Morey definitely would given his understanding of max salary.

So no, there's basically no situation in which it would be to the Rockets favor to let Parsons get into RFA next offseason. Not unless Morey knows that Parsons market would be extremely next year, but would be much higher the following FA year. This doesn't make sense in the slightest. It's basically a less dumb version of the Boozer deal with Cleveland.

 

You seen to be missing the point. If we do not make him restricted next year, he can walk away from usin 2015. We will not have the ability to match any contract. Chandler could decide to walk to Orlando.

 

The counter point to what you are saying is he'll get lower offers as a restricted free agent because teams will know we are likely to match and we get him on a shorter deal, essentially being obligated to him for a shorter time. And we all know that a player on the final year of his contract pending unrestricted free agency loses tremendous trade value because the market dries up on teams willing to take the risk they can re-sign him.

 

If and when Parsons' team option is declined by the Rockets, he'll be a 3 years veteran then, and not be subject to Gilbert Arenas provision, which means the starting salary of his new contract is not limited to Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception. It can theoretically be as high as it's allowed in the CBA (25% of cap space), assuming a team is willing to offer him max $$$.

So, if he hits free agency then, he will not receive a 4yr/40M back-loaded (5/5/15/15) offer sheet, but rather than a regular one.

 

With that being said, I think it's not necessarily in the Rockets' best interest to decline his team option at that time. I guess Morey would rather take the wait-and-see approach, though.

It would all depend on how Parsons improves as a player. It's too early to tell now.