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[ClutchFans] The Chandler Parsons Contract: An Analysis (UPDATED)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BimaThug, Dec 23, 2012.

  1. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    No, it is instantly forgotten.

    All knowledge gleaned from Internet sources is deemed 100% accurate.

    BT - - thank you for what you do to edify us.

    A Happy and Healthy Holiday Season to you and yours, especially young Mr Precocious Rocket fan!
     
  2. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Sorry for the long post. Wanted to try to get to everyone without clogging the thread with posts.

    Yes, I really WAS going to write this Parsons piece based on his upcoming January 1 partial guarantee date. The other Parsons thread just made we want to expand the blog entry to explain away some of the confusion in that thread.

    As for being a statgeek, I can only claim to being a geek. Durvasa is much more adept at statistical analysis than I am.

    Dei, I think choco has your answer. Second round picks rarely have leverage on contract negotiations unless either (a) they are somehow clearly a supreme talent (in which case, why did they fall out of the first round?) or (b) they are willing to play overseas and forego an NBA career. Player options are extraordinariy rare in rookie contracts. Honestly, I can't think of a second round pick EVER getting a player option. Why would Parsons (in December 2011) have been any different?

    Deckard, thanks for the kind words (and tamale metaphors). Most second round pick rookie contracts are either one- or two-year deals for the league minimum (which is all teams can give without using cap room or a salary cap exception). However, teams are getting smarter and--at least for some of the "better" second round talents--reserving a sliver of cap room or the MLE to give guys three- or four-year deals. Such deals almost always include partially or non-guaranteed salaries or team options (or sometimes both). The player agrees to these terms in exchange for a higher salary in Year 1 and maybe Year 2 as well as getting two years fully guaranteed, something that most second rounders don't get otherwise.

    Morey had locked up Taylor and Budinger on sweetheart deals and likely tried to lock up Parsons on an identical contract. The "victory" for Parsons was in learning from the "mistakes" made by Taylor's and Budinger's agents. Getting those partial guarantees in place gave Parsons more job security that Taylor (who was out of the league in two years) and Budinger (who outperformed his contract but still may have been let go if team options were declined).

    Dei, there is NO WAY Morey would have given Parsons any player options.

    We'd like to, but we're trying to think of a good central discussion point. Not much has happened to the Rockets since the Harden trade. As for day-to-day discussion, I actually really like the Rocketscast Live broadcasts that Jason Friedman and Craig Ackerman do for rockets.com. I view our podcasts as being based on bigger Rockets news.

    We hope to have one in the near future. Depending on what the focus might be, a will try to line up a "special guest" to join us. It'll be a surprise.

    Uh.....
    Yeah, I'm guessing that's what happened. :rolleyes:

    Yeah, if Smith keeps this up, he'll be a hot commodity. Luckily, the Rockets have him through next year (at the league minimum, and non-guaranteed at that), and he'll be a RESTRICTED free agent in 2014. The Rockets will have full Bird rights on Smith and will be able to match any offer he receives in free agency. Unless the Rockets simply don't want to "overpay" for Smith or otherwise need the cap space for something else, there is no way the Rockets would lose Smith to another team.

    The "poison pill" contracts received by Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik from the Rockets (and from Landry Fields from the Raptors) are VERY rare. They only apply to "Gilbert Arenas Rule" free agents, who have only one or two years of experience and receive offers above the MLE level.

    Parsons will have more than two years of experience when he hits free agency. The Rockets will have full Bird rights on him. He will not be subject to the Gilbert Arenas Rule, so no "poison pill" contract offers for him.

    Please re-read the blog entry. If (and it's a big if) the Rockets have plenty of cap room in the 2014-15, they CAN do a renegotiate-and-extend of Parsons. Still, it would not likely be in the team's best interests to do so, so it may all be a moot point anyway.

    Thanks for the kind words, xiki (and all of you).

    "LilBimaThug" and I appreciate it. Same to all of you!
     
  3. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    BimaThug,

    Thanks for laying the smack down on Dei's idiot thread. I know you won't admit to any intention of trying to Kay the smack down, but still thanks.
     
  4. jeffyisme

    jeffyisme Member

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    Thanks for this insightful article. Enjoy reading it. :)

    There are two question, though, if you don't mind. If I understand correctly, It's the structure of the contract that Parsons signed in 2010 that makes it not subject to "rookie scale contract" & its restrictions. So he will be a UFA in 2015 and neither Parsons nor the Rockets (in their best interest) can change it.

    And here are the two questions. :grin:

    (a) Had Parsons signed a 3-year contract with its structure identical to the one that he actually signed (ex: salary higher than league minimum, first two year guaranteed, the third year partially guaranteed), would he still be subject to restricted free agency when he becomes a free agent?

    (b) Then, from the teams' perspective, in order to retain the right to keep a rookie player from going away from free agency, it's not in the teams' best interest to offer a contract more than 3 years. In other words, the starting salary of a 2nd round rookie contract can be as high as teams are willing & able to offer, but the length should not be more than 3 years. Is it correct?
     
  5. jeffyisme

    jeffyisme Member

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    that makes "HIM" not subject to.

    Sorry, my bad.

    ==

    Can't edit the original post. Maybe it's because I'm a newbie here, though. :confused:
     
  6. Sham

    Sham Member

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    No they can't, that's what I'm saying. Renegotiated contracts can only be concurrently extended if that renegotiation is for no greater than a 10% increase. If it's more than 10%, you must wait three years. It was a change made in the last CBA.
     
  7. Sham

    Sham Member

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    Yes

    Yes, and, for that very reason, it rarely is. With the exception of the Rockets's three mentioned above, the only other one I can think of who got four years was Bill Walker.
     
  8. Sham

    Sham Member

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    Oh and DeJuan Blair.
     
  9. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Parsons signed his deal in December 2011. Also, it was not the structure of that particular contract that made it not subject to rookie scale rules. It was the fact that Parsons was not a first round pick. ONLY first round picks have rookie scale contracts.

    To answer your two questions:

    (a) Yes, had Parsons only signed a three-year deal, then he would be a RESTRICTED free agent in 2014.

    (b) Not necessarily. A four-year deal with a team option for Year 4 is ALWAYS better for the team than just a three-year deal. Also, having a four-year deal with the player hitting unrestricted free agency after four years does not spell doom for the team.

    Under the current CBA (and even prior CBAs), the player's prior team will almost always have the upper hand to re-sign the player to a longer-term contract with higher annual raises, all while still being able to meet or beat any starting salary offer using the player's Bird rights.

    The ONLY disadvantage is not being able to FORCE the player to stay via restricted free agency. If things continue as they have between Parsons and the Houston Rockets, I doubt the team would need to force Parsons to stay in 2015. It'll all be about the money at that point; and nothing in Parsons's current contract will prevent the Rockets from being able to meet Parsons's demands there . . . if Houston wants to do so.
     
  10. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Wait 3 years after what?
     
  11. Sham

    Sham Member

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    After the renegotiation is done. Article 7, section 7(2):

    It's one of the sneaky provisions in the new CBA. It basically means no more Andray Blatching.
     
  12. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Mark Deeks, is that you?
     
  13. Sham

    Sham Member

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    Yeah.
     
    1 person likes this.
  14. jeffyisme

    jeffyisme Member

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    Thanks a lot. It's really appreciated.

    Been studying Mr. Larry Coon's CBA FAQ for quite a while, but still having a hard time understanding the rules that govern the undrafteds & 2nd rounders' contracts. Your article and explanation help very much. :)

    It's privileged to have a conversation with a CBA guru here. :grin:
     
  15. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Thanks. Is Andray Blatching similar to Nick Collisoning?
     
  16. Sham

    Sham Member

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    Much the same, although Collison had that one huge year then four little ones, whereas Blatche just boosted his two remaining years while tacking three more on. I guess I don't really understand why they saw fit to bring in a rule to prevent that. But I bet there's some teams who really wish they hadn't. Kyle Lowry in Toronto, for example.
     
  17. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    People, if Sham really is Mark Deeks (and I will assume that he is), then he's someone whose analysis I will rarely question. Mark created and runs shamsports.com, from where I get most of my player salary information (including the Parsons contract info).

    Sham, I saw nothing about this on Larry's FAQs: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q59

    Larry mentions a simultaneous renegotiation and extension (which obviously cannot occur until three years after the contract is signed - in Parsons's case, December 2014). However, he only mentions that a salary DECREASE can be no more than 40%, to avoid a Nick Collison contract situation. There is zero mention of caps on salary increases, provided that the team has enough cap room in the renegotiation season to set a "new" salary.

    Still, I will defer to your knowledge on the subject. (I'm still trying to get my hands on the actual 2011 CBA, an advantage that you clearly have over me.)


    This shouldn't change the overarching theme of the piece, though. Namely, that Parsons is unlikely to see a huge payday befor 2015.

    Thanks for the correction and clarification, Sham!
     
  18. Sham

    Sham Member

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    In the table in question 58, it says:

    "Renegotiated contracts Three years after renegotiation signed, if a salary was renegotiated upward by more than 10%"

    Which accords with the wording of the CBA provision. Larry's question 59 prolly could do with a reference to that, but, yeah.
     
  19. Sham

    Sham Member

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    As always, there might be something I'm overlooking somewhere. But I can't find it.
     
  20. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Thanks, Mark.

    FWIW, I read both Larry's FAQ #58 table and the exceprt from the actual 2011 CBA that you quoted as referring to the timing of eligibility for SUBSEQUENT extensions, not for a simultaneous "renegotiate-and-extend" deal.

    For instance, if a team renegotiates a player's contract in 2012 (with or without a simultaneous extension) to give the player a raise greater than 10%, then the team could not later do ANOTHER extension until 2015.

    Of course, I do not have the benefit of the entire 2011 CBA to provide additional context to the meaning of your quoted language.

    I'm not necessarily saying that you are wrong in your interpretation. I might still be right, but you've got far more credibility than I do on these issues.
     

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