[ClutchFans] Rockets to begin season with Beverley, Asik as starters; Jeremy Lin off bench

Thanks Torocan for your hard work! With all this typing I hope you don't develop a carpel tunnel injury.

 

The only good thing for Lin in your argument is conserving energy in the beginning. However, he changed his diet and is much more fit this season.

I'm not convinced starting will affect his production and effectivity. IF he is playing well, they will not be able to pull him out of the game.

re 16 seconds left, rockets down 1, and with the ball - do you sincerely believe McHale/Harden/Parsons will give Lin the ball?

Ultimately, I just want Lin to have an opportunity to show what he can do (with his improvements) as a starter.

 

Lin did have some opportunities to play this season as a starter. His stats were slightly better when he started then as a bench player. The Rockets won most of those games where Lin started.

 

I think the argument would be that Bev helps create the conditions for the offense to dominate later in the quarter.

Certainly with a three guard rotation you are going to have times with Bev/Harden or Bev/Lin. The question then becomes where to slot those times in. Slotting it in with Bev as a starter is arguably worthwhile in wearing down the opposing PG at least a little for when a fresh Lin enters; It slides the 'blow them out of the water' offense down a few minutes in the first quarter, but hopefully with the score at least even.

 

I was wowed by it!

Until I realized you made up the stats to say what you wanted them to say.

You took Casspi's exceptional +/- and somehow (and manipulatively I might add) attributed it to Lin "running the offense" whereas it is not appropriate to do so.

Looking at things objectively, you would have noted:

Lin - Harden - Parsons - Jones - Howard - +1
Lin - Harden - Parsons - Casspi - Howard - +26

The obvious conclusion, in the limited sample size, was Casspi should be our starting PF, not that Lin "runs the offense better.

Unfortunately we have no data to show how Beverley performs with Casspi in the starting lineup to make an apples to apples comparison. Fortunately we do have one with the current starting lineup:

Lin - Harden - Parsons - Jones - Howard - +1
Bev - Harden - Parsons - Jones - Howard - +4



I am disappointed in you Torocan. I thought you were better than all these other LOFs. I can see now I was wrong.

 

No, he might not get the ball, but he will be in the game, camped on the three point line, ready to shoot.

Do you remember all those games last year where Lin was sitting on the bench when Beverly closed games? I guaranfreakingtee you Lin does. You surely saw his interview when he talked about it.

Well, the surest way for that to happen again in the playoffs against great teams on national TV is if Lin spends the first quarter getting scored on by Parker, Paul, Wesbrook or curry. And that is the greatest shame. Not coming in as the feared sixth man and PG who will close games.

Nobody remembers who started game 7 in the western conference finals. Everyone remembers who was on the floor at closing time, and who wasn't. You never see highlights of plays in the first quarter. It's the last four minutes of the fourth quarter, the guy who hits the clutch jumper, who drives for the three point play.

 

Nice idea, except had you looked up the Beverley specific data, you would see that there IS a Beverley, Parsons, GARCIA, Harden, Howard line up with a +3.

And that there IS actually a Beverley, Parsons, CASSPI, Harden, Howard line up with +5.

http://www.82games.com/1314/13HOU3.HTM

This is in addition to the Jones line up for both with are within normal margins of error.

So taking identical Casspi/Garcia line ups the differences are well over +10 in both line ups.

I didn't include those specific links previously and just included the data. My mistake to assume you would click the individual player line ups.

 

Someone post a meme that shows amazement, stat!

 

Are you kidding me? You are using data with 4 minutes worth of data as a point of emphasis.

Come on man.

 

Lol people writing essays using +/- data when we've played freaking 11 games. Absolutely useless.

 

Average defense doesn't win us the Western Conference.

 

Actually, you picked one piece of data as the point of emphasis out of the multiple line ups, drive data, jump shot data, assist data, FGA data, and Assisted FG data, then attempted to use that single piece of data to discredit the sum of the data.

The original hypothesis is that Lin's impact on the offense is far larger than Beverley's and as such has a greater overall impact per minute. That shows in pretty much every offensive stat, whether it's PPS, PPG, FGA, AST48, WS/48, +-, Shots Assisted, Total assists, Assist/48, Offensive rating, and PER.

Whether you attribute that to being a "floor general" is up to you, I simply stated that he creates offense.

 

Tell that to Morey. BTW, please enlighten me with the magic number of games when writing a few paragraphs using +/- data is acceptable.

 

Numbers don't mean anything here. People are going to choose what they want to believe in. Even if they know deep down they are wrong. Lin will only truly prove himself when he is traded or signs with another team. Sounds like a lot of fans attribute his good start to coming off the bench. So the better he plays, the more he validates his own benching. He will never get the starting job back if the coaching staff thinks the same way. If he ends the season at 18/6 and has no realistic chance to ever leave Bev's shadow, then he probably should want to play elsewhere. Bev certainly has not lived up to expectations thus far. Morey should probably just trade Asik and Lin asap if he is planning on doing it anyways. It seems from the past several games, that Lin has contributed positively to the team and we don't want to get used to that if he's a goner anyways.

 

Sample size shmample size. Some people still use 48 minutes of data from one game versus the Miami Heat around 2 years ago as the basis to judge Lin's skill.

 

As long as the Houston Rockets win I'm okay with what ever.

 

If you look at all the Beverley lineups used 10 minutes and over, the highest plus minus is 6, in a lineup with Lin, followed by +4

If you look at all the Lin lineups used 10 minutes and over, you see a +26 and a +18, followed by the +6 with Bev and others.

So if you are just looking at +/- data for lineups, Lin does look better

 

Every offensive stat except for overall points per possession which is probably the most important.

 

Lawyered. The starting PG positioned is cursed!

 

Actually that's not points per possession. That's on/off floor time stats, which is skewed on a line up basis. For example, if player A and B log different minutes with less/more effective line ups or against tougher/weaker opposition, it skews the floor time stats.

If you want the actual Points per Possession stats, you can get those here...

http://nbawowy.com/

However, to save you the time...

Lin
Points per possession - 1.13
Points per shot - 1.31

Beverley
Points per possession - 1.00
Points per shot - 1.02

Personally I don't consider it to be the most important in the team context, however if you choose to make those numbers the most important then that's your decision.

As you can see, Lin's Points per Possession is also higher...