We've had winning seasons every year from the time we traded for battier till last year. I haven't noticed FAs lining up to join houston then, in fact prominent FAs like Bosh and Mike James (at the time) have chosen other teams over us. Also trading real, tangible assets on the off chance that Melo will stay is just plain stupid. If Melo leaves to join NY after the season is over, you just traded Hill/PP/picks/whatever for a rental.
ironically renting Melo would also improve our position in the short term, meaning we might end up making the playoffs, losing in the first round and ending up with a low pick apart from losing the assets to Denver and Melo to NY. Talk about a triple fail.
From Chris Sheridan's ESPN chat this afternoon: "The No. 1 reason why the Nuggets aren't dealing with the Knicks is because they prefer the Nets deal. The No. 2 reason, in my opinion, is because young Mr. Kroenke does not want to be held hostage by a player who only wants to be dealt to one team. I do know that the Nuggets are still speaking to other teams about contingency plans in case the NJ-Detroit deal falls through. But if someone else (Houston?) get him on a rental, I do not expect them to then ship him off to the Knicks. They'd keep him and hope he could put them in realistic position to compete for the championship" and "Jason (HOU) I've seen Houston's name pop up in the Carmelo trade discussions. What are they offering that Denver likes? Do the Rockets think they can convince Carmelo to stay with them or do they realize that it's just going to be a rental? Chris Sheridan (ESPN): I think they would be the No. 1 team that would take him as a rental if the price was right. And hen, if they were going to lose him as a free agent, they'd make everyone happy by doing a sign-and-trade (provided such deals exist in the new labor agreement). Remember, they have the Knicks' 2011 pick to offer. And since that pick now looks like it'll fall be somewhere in the high-teens, low 20s range, it becomes more expendable than it would have been if the Knicks were struggling riht now." Other than Sheridan screwing up the draft pick consideration (the Rockets can actually trade the Knicks' 2012 pick obligation), this is very interesting news. Again, if the Rockets somehow manage to get Melo but it turns into a rental (despite Morey's attempts to get Melo to stay), look for Morey to net some additional assets in a sign-and-trade deal this summer (most likely to New York).
Would it be totally out of the question for Houston to sign Melo and trade him to the Knicks for Amare?
I really don't think that Melo is our savior from the pits of mediocrity, without a dominant big man guarding your paint, it doesn't really help all that much by having a great wing player. We may win a few more games with Melo and maybe make the playoffs, sure, but in the end, when he leaves for the bright lights of the east coast, what are we left with? Good memories? Nah, I'd rather see us sticking with the young guys we have at the moment and developing our team into a contender within a few years
It is likely that the new CBA will carry over rules favoring players re-signing with their own team. Therefore, if Melo is a Rocket on June 30, once the lockout is over, Melo will (likely) be able to get more money and guaranteed years on his contract if he signs it with Houston. Hence, the strong desire to work out a sign-and-trade deal to New York. I'm not saying that Houston can ask for and get the moon and the stars. But they could likely get at least a large trade exception and future picks, or maybe a guy like Anthony Randolph or Ronny Turiaf, in the process. But, again, this assumes that certain features of the current CBA are carried over to the new CBA. My guess is that many GMs, including Morey, are making bets on certain features still being around next year. Now, let's just hope that Morey's right.
You have to put yourself in Denver's shoes. If you compare our assets we can offer as opposed to Nets, I just don't see how Nets look even remotely better. The only reason I would think they would choose New Jersey is because we are in the west with Denver and both fighting for bottom playoff spots.
Thanks Bima. If all we could potentially get in a sign-and-trade for Melo to NY (so many assumptions, sigh...) is draft picks (probably lower by the minute as I see NY emerging as a probable powerhouse in the next 2 years: just imagine Amare, Paul and Melo) or Randolph, then Morey needs to be careful on what he gives up in a trade with Denver.
Exactly. I'm sure the Rockets' front office is calculating (A) what assets it will take to rent Melo and (B) what assets they could reasonably expect to get from New York if they had to settle for a sign and trade. The question will be: Is the difference between (A) and (B) worth 3-4 months with Melo AND the exclusive negotiating rights with Melo during that period AND the likely ability to sign him to a larger contract under both the current CBA and the new CBA? Another thing to consider is that the Rockets' current assets are getting close to the point of declining in value. They can't play ALL of their young players every game. They can perhaps afford to "overpay" slightly if the alternative is that those assets otherwise decline in value. It's going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out.
Morey needs to be VERY VERY careful with Melo, make no mistake he is leaving for NY in the offseason. If he waits much longer even having Melo wouldn't get us in the playoffs and all we'd get out of it is a crappier pick, big T/E and another role player while losing a few pieces of our own.
What's the answer to this question? A. Randolph? (meh) L. Fields? (intriguing) Knicks don't have much we want.
Taking a step back and looking at the big picture: 1.) Nets - most attractive package but not willing to rent. Have we gotten any sort of confirmation that Melo would sign an extension there? 2.) Knicks - obviously wants to be there but the Knicks arent going to give up anything to get him if they can sign him in the offseason for nothing. 3.) Rockets - would give up something just to rent him, perhaps with the intention of fleecing New York again when its SnT time. Perhaps Morey knows some aspect of the new CBA which makes it an advantageous position to be in? I am having trouble grasping all of this since there are so many unknowns, but I trust Morey knows what he is doing.
The trick, i think to renting Carmelo would be to bring other valuable players along with him. Like Nene or Billups(or both). Also, not giving up Martin in the trade would be a plus.
While I think they could get one or two decent players, it is more likely that the Rockets opt for picks and a larger trade exception. Swap rights on 2013 pick? 2014 pick (lottery-protected)? Swap rights on 2015 pick? 2016 pick (lottery-protected)? Pick a couple.
With a large trade exception, the Rockets could prolong their search for a REAL star beyond this summer, while still being able to re-sign their own free agents (Aaron Brooks, especially) without worrying about opening up cap room to sign a major free agent. Sure, if Melo comes here and then leaves for New York, it will suck. But so will not doing anything AND wasting this offseason with the only REAL chance at having significant cap room without dumping good players.
