[ClutchFans] Podcast - The Dwight Howard Trade Aftermath

Thanks guys for the great podcast, good job touching up on all the major talking points. Beats the hell out of those DD videos(R.I.P.), CF is evolving in the right direction.

A couple comments:


1) Lin

First off I don't think Lin will be a superstar either. But that's irrelevant to what his contract should be. Besides, you can say that about 95% of young players, including top 5 picks, and chances are you will be right.

What we do know for a fact is that Lin DID play at a superstar level for a short period of time, and then settled at slightly above average after circumstances changed. That's the key. He did not revert or regress because he tired out or because his hot streak was over. His production decreased because two ball-dominant players re-entered the lineup. Now the mystery is, can he maintain(and improve upon) that previous production for a full season without the 2 ball-dominant players?

That is the starting question you need to ask in order to determine Lin's contractual value. We already know his absolute upside, because he already did it for a very short period: max contract. What is the probability that he reaches and maintains that? 5%? 10%? What is his absolute downside: back up point guard- $3-4M/year. What is the probability that he regresses to that? 10%? 15%? And then of course you have the probabilities of everything in between.

Clutch, what you need to do is stop looking at what Lin did as a whole last year(and comparing that to what Dragic did and deem him overpaid), and instead look at the probabilities of what he projects into the future. For all the criticism he gets for being "unproven", that same uncertainty is what you also have to factor into his valuation.

Also, something about "unproven". Unproven does not mean unable. Unproven also does not mean undeserving. If Lebron James coming into the NBA at 18 years old and 0 games played was a free agent, he would have commanded a max contract without a second thought. And deservedly so. Projection and prediction HAS to be factored into any type of evaluation in any industry.

The reason why the "unproven" Lin's contract is so "shocking" to some is because it is a rare circumstance. Most large contracts in the NBA are given after 3-4 years in the league, after their rookie contracts are up, when they are mostly proven or at least with a more definable upside. Before that, when the prospect's upside is most variable, they are locked in a capped rookie scale. Because Lin is an undrafted player far outplaying his standing, his new contract dynamics are a bit unique to most players. Hence the outrage.

It does not matter if you project him as an average $5m fringe starter. Because he has already produced at a high level for a short time, thus commanding a "potential" premium.

2) Rebuild

Clutch almost had a heart attack when Bima suggested he actually WANTED the Rockets to make the playoffs next year. The pick! OUR pick! I know. I am squarely on Bima's side on this issue, as crazy as the position sounds to many. In fact, it is the only way to go.

Understand this, the Rocket's goal, their decree, is to Win the Championship.

That is the end goal. The only goal. Every single move that is made needs to facilitate this. They have repeated this time and again.

By their deduction, a top 10 player is needed to achieve this. That is also not a secret, and 99% of the basketball community would agree with this philosophy. The question is how to get that player. Again, by the Rocket's own words, "Trade. Draft. Develop."

The focus on CF has been the middle one now that Dwightmare has concluded. And here's the problem. In order to have a high probability of drafting a top 10 player, you need a bottom 5 record.

The Rockets will not have a bottom 5 record.

I understand you disagree with this Clutch. You are wrong. The Rockets brass disagree with you, and believe we will be fighting for a playoff spot. The Rockets felt we would be fighting for a playoff spot last year, and they were. The Rockets felt they would have a better record than the Knicks 2 years ago, and they did. One of the specialties of the Rockets analytics is projecting records, and they are pretty good at it.

For all their inexperience, our starting lineup is unlikely to have any rookies in it. And even inexperience does not equal incapable. Sure, it means uncertainty, inconsistency, and obviously we are no playoff locks. In fact, I also agree that they won't even make it as currently constituted.

But they will not have a bottom 5 record.

Now Rockets fans know full well about the NBA purgatory. The worst spot to be in. The 14th pick. Well, Rocket fans, you are wrong. That isn't the worst spot. The real NBA purgatory is 6-12. In those spots you will neither pick high enough for a high probability star player, nor will you have the hope of a winning team. That is the real NBA death sentence. And that is where the Rockets could potentially end at next year.

So humor me for a second here and just assume we won't be able to pick top 5. That means the "draft" option is now off the board as well. So what can the Rockets brass do, with the end goal of winning the championship always in mind?

It leaves only "trade" and "develop". Both of these things benefit from us actually MAKING the playoffs. Our assets increase in value as they win, benefiting a trade. And as the young players develop they also naturally contribute more to the win total. We can accelerate this process by trading and consolidating our overlapping assets into young upgrades that can help us make the playoffs, who also fit into a future contending team or can be flipped again for a top 10 player.

This is why I am okay with trading a couple of our PFs for a guy like Josh Smith, who is only 26.

By making the playoffs with a team who's average age is under 24 and average experience under 2 years, we would be seen as a young team on the rise with high potential prospects.

That is when you once again attempt to trade up in the draft, and once again try to trade for a star player in the offseason. I know that is not what cynical Rocket fans want to hear. But the reality is, that is the ONLY option we have.

Again, thanks Clutch and Bima for the great podcast.

 

I disagree with that dragic is better than lin.

I disagree with that tragic is better than lin. First of all, as rockets fans, there is obviously a bias when comparing the two. But if u watched lin play, you will see that he has the potential to be a great player. This guy carried an 8-15 to the playoffs with a subpar supporting cast. The won games with guys like jeffries, walker, fields and novak. Remember that novak was unknown before linsanity. Theres just something about lin in the 4th quarter! He becomes super clutch! During linsanity, u could see that everyone was playing better because of lin! Thats why I'm really optimistic about this team. Dragic is a good player and had a great run of games like lin. U can say that he was under performing until his last 28 games like lin where he averaged 18 points..But remember the team lost 7 of their last nine games while dragic was having great numbers. As a point guard, I feel that lin elevates his team much better and can guarantee more wins

 

Great talk. Made my day.

 

I wish I can rep you. Well written.

 

If Fegan/Howard had a stacked deck against the Magic/Martens, wouldn't they have played that card to get him in Brooklyn?

 

Well written. I hope your wrong about the rebuild though. I hope we finish in the bottom 3 but with the team as is, I see us finishing anywhere between the 8-12 slot in next years draft. Nice read again though

 

Rockets should have also said: SIGN. Not only does Houston have the cap space but they show a keen ability steal RFA's from teams via poison pill clauses. Now they just have to do it with a superstar type player. That means selling Houston as a destination and as a team on the cusp.

Unless they have given up entirely on this strategy due to their failures the last few years in drawing primo FAs.

In any event, great post to go along with a sweet podcast!

 

I am also more than a little skeptical that Morey offered that much and it was turned down.

A bit of CYA, shall we say?

 

Great post.

It is one thing to barely make the playoffs with a number of players who can be classified as veterans. It is quite another if the same feat can be accomplished with a brand new squad who have never played.

If we make the playoffs or barely miss it with such a young team, it portends well for the future.

 

Anyone with their rockets goggles off knows that Lin and Dragic aren't that different. It's one thing to want CP3 over Lin/Dragic because he's vastly better but you're comparing apples to apples when it comes to Lin vs Dragic.

 

Dang, you nailed it.

 

The Turk contract isn't that bad. You pay him the $12m this year and next year his contract is an expiring partially guaranteed contract of $6m that you can flip him. So it might not be b.s. from the puppet Feigen.

 

Fegan knew that if dwight didnt join a popular team before next season, he would be forced to join a non playoff team like houston, atl, or stay in orlando. New cap rules prevent sign and trade for the lakers, nets,knicks, and any other team with salaries over 75 mill. Lakers will be at almost 200 mill next season if dwight resigns max contract with them !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! TAX included

 

I read somewhere that the year Lin entered the draft, he was describing his game as like that of Dragic's. He came to grief for that because people were saying why compare yourself to a reserve.

I guess we'll have this season to find out. With our young team, we need a humble leader like Lin who'll allow the young players to shine.

cxbby, great analysis. I know the Rockets will play to win; that's what they've always done. And the most recent signing of Delfino points to that. I don't know if Martin is still recuperating from his injury. We may also need to get another veteran big to mentor the young guys.

We have to be patient anyway so I'd rather have a team I can root for trying to play the right way.

 

So where does our MVP Marcus Morris figure into this equation?

 

He's gonna lead this team in scoring........


I just wanna know who's gonn start posting the gifs again here?

 

In the current situation, It sounds nothing but funny every time when front office talks about wining championship.

1. This club tried hard and have not played a single playoff game in the last three seasons, and probably will not in the next a few seasons. It is not the time to talk anything beyond wining a playoff spot.

2. The current roster has only 2 starters left from last season, a lot of rookies will be playing significant minutes in the next season. It will be hard to predict how good this team could be developed into, but it would be safe to not call this team contender.

 

The reason the "poison pill" contracts worked so well for us is because we were looking at bringing in players who arguably did/didn't deserve that money.

This strategy does not work with superstars considering the fact that most superstars sign deals with a player option on the last year not team option, and because of the fact that if we were trying to sign superstars no team would even hesitate in matching a max deal, let alone a "poison pill" contract. We just saw this past off-season that even players that aren't considered superstars teams are still willing to match "max deal offer sheets". (See Eric Gordon and Roy Hibbert).

 

I agree, even when OKC had Durant, the Thunder/Sonics went 20-62, and 23-59, in his 1st 2 years. Granted, the next year when they brought in Ibaka and Harden they went 50-32, but nonetheless, despite how good Durant and co. was, it still took a while.

 

I both understand and agree that signing superstars and guys with potential is different. But knowing Morey, he would have structured any max contracts with a surprise or two. The trick is to get these stars to agree that Houston is a desired destination. That has been Morey's bane so far.

Morey may be lauded for his trades/moneyball decisions, but not by players. Morey may need a coach that players want to play for, a la Phil Jackson. Perhaps that was the reason behind the hiring of Kevin McHale. Morey was likely looking for a coach with cache among players.